Adam Serwinowski

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 191 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#377ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ACIN	25	25	86	3.57	2.81	29.0%	12.3%	—	K 21.5% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.85
2025	21	MIX2 levels	25	24	112	4.03	3.44	28.5%	11.0%	—	K 22.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.58
2026	22	AALAD	26	26	127	5.31	4.31	26.9%	12.4%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.23
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	1	1	3	5.17	5.17	22.9%	13.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBLAD	11	11	64	5.04	4.97	23.3%	12.3%	0.4
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBLAD	13	13	74	4.88	4.80	23.6%	11.3%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 74%

CompsDylan Carmouche (age 22) · Brandon Knarr (age 23) · John Doxakis (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%22.9%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%9.0%

Proj IP147

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	27.3%	18.7%	8.6%	1.2%	3.62	3.84	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	40.2%	15.0%	25.2%	0.9%	3.62	2.19	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	1.3%	3.57	3.85	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	1.3%	3.57	3.85	—
2024	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	1.1%	3.57	2.81	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.03	4.58	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.03	4.58	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	2.4%	4.03	3.44	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	21.8%	13.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.31	5.23	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	21.8%	13.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.31	5.23	—
2026	22	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	26.9%	12.4%	14.5%	3.4%	5.31	4.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	1	1	3	13	3	2	0	100%	3.0	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	3.4%	5.17	5.17	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	147	621	145	76	21	100%	5.7	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.3%	4.96	4.89	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	111	470	111	53	15	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.3%	4.80	4.72	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	108	457	109	51	15	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.68	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	105	442	105	49	15	100%	6.2	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.3%	4.71	4.70	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	100	421	99	47	14	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.76	4.79	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	93	391	91	45	14	100%	6.2	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.6%	4.86	4.92	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	355	82	42	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.8%	5.00	5.10	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	63	33	9	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.3%	11.0%	3.5%	5.04	4.97	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	74	312	74	35	11	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.4%	4.88	4.80	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	86	363	86	40	12	100%	6.1	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.4%	4.80	4.76	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	90	380	90	42	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	11.1%	12.6%	3.4%	4.79	4.78	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	89	376	89	42	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.84	4.87	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	84	355	83	41	13	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.7%	4.94	5.00	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	78	329	76	39	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.9%	5.09	5.19	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	565	2386	560	273	85	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.6%	4.90	4.52	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	97	30	100%	5.9	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.6%	4.90	4.52	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		88	81	353	1525	339	212	45	92%	4.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.59	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	865	192	120	25	92%	4.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.59	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 127 IPFIP 4.27 → 5.23 (+0.96)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.88%	—	×0.810	21.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.37%	—	×1.100	13.60%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.09%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 109 IPFIP 3.46 → 4.58 (+1.13)K% 28.7% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.69%	—	×0.770	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.150	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷0.992	×1.250	3.19%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.46 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADaytona Tortugas · 86 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.85 (+1.04)K% 29.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.04%	—	×0.740	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.33%	—	×1.180	14.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.078	×1.300	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Reds · 27 IPFIP 2.11 → 3.84 (+1.72)K% 40.2% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.19%	—	×0.680	27.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.95%	—	×1.250	18.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.059	×1.400	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.11 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Serwinowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.78	23.5%	11.9%	366	-0.39	—	—	—
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	82
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	82
John Doxakis L 2022 · 5.12 FIP	23	SP	5.12	18.2%	11.9%	3.8%	.252	4.76	17.8%	4.4%	113	-0.36	3.19	332	79
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	79
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	79
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	25.7%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.32	22.0%	13.7%	386	-0.00	3.80	626	78
Doug Nikhazy L 2023 · 5.39 FIP	23	SP	5.39	21.9%	16.9%	3.6%	.304	4.71	20.2%	9.3%	258	-0.68	4.12	463	78
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	78
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	77
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	77
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	77
Mason Montgomery L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.8%	11.9%	4.1%	.272	3.75	29.4%	20.1%	202	-1.24	2.28	451	77
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	76
Max Fried L 2017 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP-	4.44	18.0%	11.1%	2.6%	.318	3.35	24.2%	15.8%	322	-1.09	2.51	1,448	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	76
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	76
Anthony Banda L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	19.7%	9.7%	2.6%	.315	4.19	21.5%	12.1%	85	+0.10	2.87	876	76
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	75
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.52	18.7%	9.1%	417	-0.73	4.36	676	75
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	112	23.4%	11.9%	1.31	4.89
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Tim Lollar ('80-'86, 3 WAR*)	4.5	129	21.2%*	12.2%*	1.35*	4.94*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*