Adam Serwinowski

Adam Serwinowski P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 191 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%23.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL3545

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.2M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	27.3%	18.7%	8.6%	1.2%	3.62	3.84	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	27.3%	18.7%	8.6%	1.2%	3.62	3.84	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	40.2%	15.0%	25.2%	0.9%	3.62	2.19	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	1.3%	3.57	3.85	—
2024	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	1.3%	3.57	3.85	—
2024	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	1.1%	3.57	2.81	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.03	4.58	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.03	4.58	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	2.4%	4.03	3.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	21.8%	13.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.31	5.23	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	21.8%	13.6%	8.2%	4.1%	5.31	5.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	LAD	26	26	127	558	150	69	19	100%	4.9	26.9%	12.4%	14.5%	3.4%	5.31	4.27	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	12	50	12	7	1	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.7%	9.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	139	608	162	76	20	—	—	26.6%	12.5%	14.1%	3.4%	5.28	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	26	26	137	577	137	70	17	100%	5.3	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.69	4.60	+0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	25	25	140	591	143	66	17	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.52	4.42	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	142	599	146	63	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.40	4.32	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	24	24	142	599	147	62	17	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.34	4.29	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	140	590	145	62	17	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	2.9%	4.34	4.33	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	23	23	136	572	140	61	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.39	4.42	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	129	546	132	59	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.48	4.55	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	122	513	122	57	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.4%	4.63	4.72	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	113	479	112	55	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.6%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	105	443	102	53	17	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.9%	11.1%	3.8%	5.02	5.15	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	68	287	68	35	9	100%	5.2	23.7%	12.1%	11.6%	3.0%	4.76	4.67	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	98	414	100	46	12	100%	5.4	24.2%	11.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.59	4.49	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	115	486	119	51	14	100%	5.8	24.4%	10.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.47	4.39	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	124	524	129	54	16	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.4%	14.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	126	532	131	56	16	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.41	4.40	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	125	528	129	56	17	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.49	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	120	507	123	55	17	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	114	481	115	54	17	100%	6.0	23.8%	11.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.71	4.80	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	108	456	107	52	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.7%	4.89	5.01	-0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	100	422	97	50	17	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.9%	11.1%	4.0%	5.11	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	186	1100	4643	1118	510	152	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	3.3%	4.62	4.25	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	203	93	28	100%	5.9	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	3.3%	4.62	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		88	81	353	1525	339	212	45	92%	4.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.59	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	865	192	120	25	92%	4.0	22.2%	13.9%	8.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.59	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Serwinowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	23.1%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.44	24.1%	12.9%	418	-0.44	—	—	—
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	86
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	85
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	83
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	83
Tyler Pike L 2016 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	19.5%	14.8%	2.7%	.278	4.33	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.46	3.41	565	82
Travis Ott L 2017 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.15	3.67	188	82
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	82
Sean Newcomb L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	22.5%	15.1%	1.1%	.282	3.70	22.8%	10.7%	462	+0.01	2.49	1,024	81
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	81
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	80
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	80
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	79
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	78
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	78
Luis De Avila L 2023 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	19.4%	12.9%	2.3%	.278	3.66	14.6%	3.0%	101	-0.71	3.51	434	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	78
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	131	24.0%	11.3%	1.20	4.57
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98