Adam Serwinowski

Adam Serwinowski P Tulsa Drillers

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 191 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 128

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%23.1%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4555

CTRL3545

CMD3045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.16	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Reds	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	27.3%	18.7%	8.6%	1.2%	3.62	3.80	—
2023	19	ROK	ACL Reds	11	6	27	107	43	16	1	55%	2.5	40.2%	15.0%	25.2%	0.9%	3.62	2.19	—
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	21.5%	14.5%	6.9%	1.2%	3.57	3.80	—
2024	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	25	25	86	365	106	45	4	100%	3.4	29.0%	12.3%	16.7%	1.1%	3.57	2.81	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.2%	4.03	4.60	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	25	24	112	491	140	54	12	96%	4.5	28.5%	11.0%	17.5%	2.4%	4.03	3.44	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	Tulsa Drillers	17	17	78	348	94	46	11	100%	4.6	21.9%	14.5%	7.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.18	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	LAD	13	13	65	274	63	36	8	100%	5.0	23.1%	13.2%	9.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.82	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB	LAD	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	23.1%	13.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.78	4.78	-0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	142	622	157	82	19	—	—	25.3%	13.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.01	+0.6
2026 FULL	22	MLB	LAD	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	23.1%	13.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.78	4.39	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	LAD	26	26	137	577	137	68	17	100%	5.3	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.9%	4.64	4.55	+1.4
2028	24	MLB	LAD	25	25	140	591	143	64	17	100%	5.6	24.2%	10.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.39	+1.7
2029	25	MLB	LAD	24	24	142	599	146	62	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.29	+1.8
2030	26	MLB	LAD	24	24	142	599	147	61	17	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+1.9
2031	27	MLB	LAD	23	23	140	590	145	61	17	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.31	4.31	+1.8
2032	28	MLB	LAD	23	23	136	572	140	60	17	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	3.0%	4.36	4.39	+1.6
2033	29	MLB	LAD	22	22	129	546	132	58	17	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.52	+1.3
2034	30	MLB	LAD	20	20	122	513	122	56	17	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.4%	4.60	4.70	+1.0
2035	31	MLB	LAD	19	19	113	479	112	54	17	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.6%	4.78	4.90	+0.7
2027	23	MLB	LAD	13	13	68	287	68	34	8	100%	5.2	23.7%	11.8%	12.0%	2.8%	4.60	4.51	+0.2
2028	24	MLB	LAD	18	18	98	414	100	45	12	100%	5.4	24.2%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.44	4.35	+1.2
2029	25	MLB	LAD	20	20	115	486	119	50	14	100%	5.8	24.4%	10.3%	14.1%	2.8%	4.32	4.25	+1.6
2030	26	MLB	LAD	21	21	124	524	129	53	15	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.23	+1.7
2031	27	MLB	LAD	21	21	126	532	131	55	15	100%	6.0	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.27	+1.7
2032	28	MLB	LAD	21	21	125	528	129	55	15	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.34	+1.5
2033	29	MLB	LAD	20	20	120	507	123	54	16	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.7%	13.6%	3.1%	4.41	4.47	+1.3
2034	30	MLB	LAD	19	19	114	481	115	53	16	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.9%	3.3%	4.55	4.65	+1.0
2035	31	MLB	LAD	18	18	108	456	107	52	16	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.85	+0.7
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			170	170	1001	4226	1022	451	126	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.04	+15.9
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	204	90	25	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.42	4.04	+3.2
Career	—			79	72	303	1315	293	187	35	91%	3.8	22.3%	14.2%	8.1%	2.6%	4.12	4.46	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			52	47	200	867	193	123	23	91%	3.8	22.3%	14.2%	8.1%	2.6%	4.12	4.46	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adam Serwinowski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	23.1%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.41	24.1%	13.2%	418	-0.41	—	—	—
Mason Molina L 2026 · 4.28 FIP	22	SP	4.28	22.7%	12.6%	2.7%	.276	3.56	23.3%	13.3%	69	-0.72	3.56	165	88
Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP	22	SP	4.37	19.0%	11.6%	2.6%	.332	4.42	17.4%	9.6%	70	+0.05	4.37	192	85
Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.21	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.62	4.15	256	85
Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	20.2%	12.5%	2.4%	.303	4.26	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.04	2.54	743	84
Travis Ott L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	20.9%	12.3%	1.8%	.253	3.69	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.21	3.69	188	83
Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	20.3%	10.4%	2.8%	.301	6.14	17.6%	4.8%	71	+1.88	4.26	176	83
Matt Wilkinson L 2026 · 4.82 FIP	22	SP	4.82	20.2%	11.6%	3.6%	.312	3.36	24.3%	14.4%	62	-1.46	3.17	284	82
Dalton Rogers L 2026 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	25.3%	16.7%	2.4%	.327	4.20	19.8%	4.6%	230	-0.20	3.42	326	82
Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP-	4.33	23.4%	12.4%	3.0%	.288	4.01	25.1%	10.7%	150	-0.32	3.72	239	82
Tate Kuehner L 2027 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	20.5%	13.9%	1.6%	.275	3.80	20.7%	7.5%	141	-0.20	3.73	245	81
Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.1%	9.9%	2.7%	.283	3.84	18.1%	10.2%	325	-0.33	3.66	437	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	24.9%	10.8%	3.4%	.298	5.19	18.7%	8.0%	358	+0.95	4.24	501	81
Max Fried L 2026 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	19.5%	13.0%	3.3%	.301	3.79	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.12	2.56	1,397	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.68	29.8%	14.8%	108	-1.49	1.94	191	81
Parker Messick L 2026 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	19.8%	8.7%	2.4%	.296	3.27	24.5%	15.9%	384	-0.57	3.21	506	80
Tyler Schweitzer L 2026 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.293	4.22	17.9%	9.5%	274	-0.44	3.87	381	80
Joe Whitman L 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP	3.90	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.53	21.0%	12.2%	199	-0.37	3.35	302	80
Tyler Pike L 2026 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP	4.83	19.5%	14.8%	2.8%	.278	4.38	19.3%	1.2%	175	-0.45	3.42	565	80
Damon Jones L 2027 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	18.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.321	3.96	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.20	3.85	269	80
A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.86	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.18	3.64	203	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	133	24.1%	11.0%	1.17	4.50
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Danny Duffy ('21)	7	124	21.7%	8.1%	1.20	4.04