Adam Serwinowski
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.9
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'5" / 191 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.3 · 2031
ERA4.62
FIP4.62
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%11.3%
IP109
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.3peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | ACL Reds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Reds | 11 | 6 | 27 | 107 | 43 | 16 | 1 | 27.3% | 18.7% | 1.2% | 3.62 | 3.81 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 25 | 25 | 86 | 365 | 106 | 45 | 4 | 21.5% | 14.5% | 1.3% | 3.57 | 3.87 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 25 | 24 | 112 | 491 | 140 | 54 | 12 | 22.1% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 4.03 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 3 | 3 | 8 | 50 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 16.2% | 24.2% | 7.2% | 18.00 | 8.75 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 104 | 52 | 13 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 117 | 509 | 114 | 63 | 16 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 5.54 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 133 | 561 | 131 | 57 | 16 | 23.3% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 153 | 61 | 18 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 169 | 64 | 20 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.18 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 173 | 730 | 177 | 66 | 21 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.16 | +2.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 32 | 32 | 176 | 742 | 180 | 68 | 21 | 24.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.17 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 173 | 731 | 177 | 67 | 21 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.20 | +2.2 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 31 | 31 | 169 | 714 | 172 | 66 | 21 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 165 | 65 | 21 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.30 | +1.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 158 | 63 | 21 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +1.7 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 28 | 152 | 642 | 150 | 62 | 20 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +1.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 26 | 26 | 145 | 613 | 141 | 60 | 20 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.50 | 4.56 | +1.2 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 25 | 25 | 138 | 583 | 132 | 58 | 20 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.60 | 4.67 | +1.0 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 122 | 56 | 19 | 22.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.72 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 58 | 234 | 1017 | 225 | 148 | 25 | 22.1% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.45 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 50 | 200 | 870 | 193 | 127 | 21 | 22.1% | 14.6% | 2.5% | 4.28 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adam Serwinowski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.62 | 22.7% | 11.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.27 | 23.7% | 14.1% | 451 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.85 | 24.0% | 10.3% | 102 | -0.55 | 3.85 | 191 | 92 |
| Will Johnston L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.96 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.18 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 70 | +0.22 | 3.96 | 162 | 92 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.86 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.17 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.69 | 4.10 | 256 | 90 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 89 |
| A.J. Block L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 89 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.27 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .298 | 5.02 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.75 | 4.27 | 501 | 89 |
| Brandon Finnegan L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.50 | 21.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .287 | 5.02 | 18.5% | 6.5% | 273 | +0.52 | 3.85 | 489 | 89 |
| Greg Farone L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.20 | 24.3% | 17.7% | 12 | -1.10 | 3.20 | 117 | 89 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 89 |
| Pete Hansen L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.18 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 10.1% | 266 | -0.38 | 3.75 | 378 | 87 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 87 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.42 | 28.3% | 12.6% | 63 | -1.72 | 1.94 | 146 | 86 |
| Travis Ott L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 20.9% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .253 | 3.67 | 24.7% | 14.4% | 70 | -0.13 | 3.67 | 188 | 86 |
| Brian Holmes L 2028 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 86 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 85 |
| Seth Lonsway L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 21.2% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .304 | 4.18 | 16.0% | 4.2% | 319 | -0.22 | 3.35 | 414 | 85 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 85 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.38 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.01 | 4.37 | 192 | 85 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 84 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.04 | 28.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | .279 | 4.19 | 24.1% | 14.1% | 271 | +0.15 | 3.49 | 432 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.2 | $20M | +$19M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.3 | $21M | +$20M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +2.2 | $21M | +$17M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +2.0 | $20M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +1.9 | $19M | +$10M |
| Totals | $23M | $119M | +$96M | ||