Roberto Castellanos

Roberto Castellanos P DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.7 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%21.2%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$56M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$20M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	15.8%	4.9%	11.0%	0.0%	1.03	2.38	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	15.8%	4.9%	11.0%	0.0%	1.03	2.38	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	23.3%	3.9%	19.4%	0.0%	1.03	1.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	14.5%	4.8%	9.7%	1.2%	3.63	3.14	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	14.5%	4.8%	9.7%	1.2%	3.63	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	TOR	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	21.4%	3.8%	17.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	59	247	54	16	7	100%	4.5	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	2.9%	4.05	4.01	+0.6
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	62	260	58	16	7	100%	4.7	22.3%	6.3%	16.0%	2.8%	3.99	3.94	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	65	273	64	17	8	100%	5.0	23.3%	6.1%	17.2%	2.8%	3.88	3.80	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	67	283	68	17	8	100%	5.2	24.0%	5.9%	18.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.69	+1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	69	290	71	16	8	100%	5.7	24.6%	5.6%	18.9%	2.7%	3.67	3.60	+1.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	294	73	16	8	100%	5.8	24.9%	5.5%	19.4%	2.7%	3.59	3.54	+1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	294	74	16	8	100%	5.8	25.1%	5.5%	19.7%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+1.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	69	290	73	16	8	100%	6.2	25.1%	5.5%	19.6%	2.7%	3.55	3.56	+1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	66	281	70	16	8	100%	6.0	25.0%	5.7%	19.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.64	+1.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	268	66	16	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	3.0%	3.70	3.77	+0.9
2027	20	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	29	122	27	8	4	100%	4.8	21.8%	6.3%	15.5%	2.9%	4.05	4.01	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	45	190	42	12	5	100%	5.0	22.3%	6.3%	16.0%	2.8%	3.99	3.94	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	54	228	53	14	6	100%	4.9	23.3%	6.1%	17.2%	2.8%	3.88	3.80	+0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	60	253	61	15	7	100%	5.5	24.0%	5.9%	18.2%	2.7%	3.77	3.69	+0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	63	266	65	15	7	100%	5.7	24.6%	5.6%	18.9%	2.7%	3.67	3.60	+1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	68	15	7	100%	5.9	24.9%	5.5%	19.4%	2.7%	3.59	3.54	+1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	70	15	7	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.5%	19.7%	2.7%	3.55	3.52	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	65	274	69	15	7	100%	5.9	25.1%	5.5%	19.6%	2.7%	3.55	3.56	+1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	63	266	67	15	8	100%	6.3	25.0%	5.7%	19.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.64	+1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	60	253	63	15	8	100%	6.0	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	3.0%	3.70	3.77	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	571	2413	587	140	67	100%	5.6	24.3%	5.8%	18.5%	2.8%	3.70	3.30	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	205	49	23	100%	5.6	24.3%	5.8%	18.5%	2.8%	3.70	3.30	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		20	18	83	337	50	16	3	90%	4.2	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.81	2.91	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	43	200	809	121	39	7	90%	4.2	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.81	2.91	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roberto Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	21.2%	6.2%	2.9%	—	3.91	22.5%	16.3%	185	-0.17	—	—	—
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	85
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.91	18.6%	8.8%	311	+1.74	3.17	421	83
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	82
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	82
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	82
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	81
Yorman Gómez R 2022 · 3.36 FIP	19	SP	3.36	18.7%	6.2%	1.9%	.311	3.88	18.0%	6.7%	346	+0.52	3.18	490	81
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	81
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	80
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	80
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	79
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	79
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	79
Cody Stashak R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	21	SP	4.07	19.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.304	3.55	17.1%	9.8%	261	-0.52	1.99	467	78
Jorge Marcheco R 2022 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP-	3.09	25.0%	7.2%	2.1%	.336	4.93	17.7%	9.9%	280	+1.84	3.09	392	78
Shawndrick Oduber R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP	3.99	22.0%	7.2%	3.4%	.337	5.40	15.2%	3.4%	72	+1.41	3.99	104	78
Luis Valdez R 2023 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	18.6%	6.7%	1.8%	.270	6.44	17.8%	5.1%	36	+3.05	3.39	103	77
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.77	18.1%	7.5%	330	+1.48	3.29	349	77
Po-Yu Chen R 2021 · 3.26 FIP	19	SP	3.26	17.6%	8.1%	1.1%	.265	4.64	16.7%	7.3%	352	+1.38	3.26	536	77
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	61	24.1%	5.8%	1.07	3.73
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Dylan Floro ('24)	1.9	54	21.1%	7.2%	0.52	3.38