Roberto Castellanos

P DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 1.2 · 2033

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#662ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	8	6	26	1.03	1.73	23.3%	3.9%	—	K 15.8% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.38
2026	19	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	12	12	57	3.63	2.28	21.4%	3.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 4.8% · FIP 3.14
2027PROJ	20	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.15	4.15	18.8%	5.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBTOR	5	5	24	4.09	4.04	20.0%	5.6%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBTOR	7	7	38	3.98	3.89	21.3%	5.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsHyun-il Choi (age 19) · Peniel Otano (age 20) · Matt Eckelman (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%18.8%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	15.8%	4.9%	11.0%	0.0%	1.03	2.38	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	15.8%	4.9%	11.0%	0.0%	1.03	2.38	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	8	6	26	103	24	4	0	75%	3.3	23.3%	3.9%	19.4%	0.0%	1.03	1.73	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	14.5%	4.8%	9.7%	1.2%	3.63	3.14	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	14.5%	4.8%	9.7%	1.2%	3.63	3.14	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	12	12	57	234	50	9	2	100%	4.8	21.4%	3.8%	17.5%	0.9%	3.63	2.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.8%	5.4%	13.4%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	49	206	41	12	6	100%	4.9	20.0%	5.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.04	+0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	52	217	46	12	6	100%	5.2	21.3%	5.5%	15.8%	2.8%	3.98	3.89	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	52	222	49	12	6	100%	5.2	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	2.7%	3.88	3.79	+1.0
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	52	222	50	12	6	100%	5.8	22.7%	5.2%	17.4%	2.7%	3.78	3.71	+1.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	52	217	50	11	6	100%	5.7	23.1%	5.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.71	3.66	+1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	52	220	51	11	6	100%	5.8	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	2.7%	3.66	3.63	+1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	51	215	50	11	6	100%	6.4	23.2%	5.1%	18.1%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	+1.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	24	101	20	6	3	100%	4.8	20.0%	5.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.09	4.04	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	38	160	34	9	4	100%	5.4	21.3%	5.5%	15.8%	2.8%	3.98	3.89	+0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	44	186	41	10	5	100%	5.5	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	2.7%	3.88	3.79	+0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	47	198	45	10	5	100%	5.9	22.7%	5.2%	17.4%	2.7%	3.78	3.71	+1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	47	198	46	10	5	100%	5.9	23.1%	5.1%	17.9%	2.7%	3.71	3.66	+1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	49	207	48	11	6	100%	6.1	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	2.7%	3.66	3.63	+1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	48	203	47	10	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	5.1%	18.1%	2.7%	3.67	3.67	+1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		53	53	297	1253	281	66	34	100%	5.6	22.4%	5.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.80	3.37	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	189	44	23	100%	5.6	22.4%	5.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.80	3.37	+5.0
Career	—	MLE		20	18	83	337	50	16	3	90%	4.2	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.81	2.91	+7.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	43	200	809	121	39	7	90%	4.2	14.9%	4.8%	10.1%	0.8%	2.81	2.91	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue · 57 IPFIP 2.25 → 3.14 (+0.89)K% 21.4% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.37%	—	×0.680	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.250	4.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.20%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.25 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Blue Jays Red · 26 IPFIP 1.62 → 2.38 (+0.75)K% 23.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.30%	—	×0.680	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.88%	—	×1.250	4.85%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.957	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.62 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Roberto Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	18.8%	5.4%	2.8%	—	3.90	21.1%	15.6%	153	-0.25	—	—	—
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	85
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	82
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	82
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	82
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	82
Cody Stashak R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	21	SP	4.07	19.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.304	3.55	17.1%	9.8%	261	-0.52	1.99	467	81
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	81
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.89	18.9%	9.1%	311	+1.72	3.17	422	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	81
Jose Feliz R 2024 · 3.05 FIP	18	SP	3.05	20.4%	7.6%	1.3%	.265	3.15	14.0%	8.0%	61	+0.10	3.05	107	81
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	80
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	80
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	79
Zack Trageton R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	20	SP	3.23	16.9%	6.3%	1.4%	.314	4.84	17.0%	6.9%	138	+1.61	3.23	283	79
Alex Sanabia R 2010 · 3.51 FIP	21	SP-	3.51	15.3%	4.6%	2.1%	.283	5.47	12.4%	3.6%	55	+1.96	3.42	505	79
Reudis Diaz R 2024 · 3.13 FIP	18	SP-	3.13	16.1%	5.2%	1.3%	.255	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	44	+0.45	3.13	109	79
Diego Dugarte R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	20	SP	3.43	14.8%	6.3%	1.4%	.294	7.15	11.3%	-8.6%	30	+3.72	3.43	114	79
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	79
Manuel Olivares R 2022 · 3.23 FIP	20	SP	3.23	18.7%	4.9%	2.0%	.359	3.86	14.5%	4.5%	126	+0.63	3.23	354	78
Jose Vasquez R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	13.5%	6.0%	2.5%	.287	4.68	15.2%	1.6%	68	+0.57	3.60	162	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	49	22.0%	5.3%	1.06	3.85
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Nick Vincent ('21)	2.1	46	24.1%	6.2%	0.94	3.30
Donnie Moore ('75-'88, 7 WAR*)	3.3	60	20.7%*	6.6%*	1.00*	3.83*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*