Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 10 | 45 | 183 | 53 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 4.07 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | ROK | Elizabethton Twins | 10 | 10 | 45 | 183 | 53 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.0% | 6.0% | 23.0% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 2.63 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 122 | 488 | 90 | 33 | 4 | 95% | 5.8 | 13.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 2.80 | 3.35 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 122 | 488 | 90 | 33 | 4 | 95% | 5.8 | 18.4% | 6.8% | 11.7% | 0.8% | 2.80 | 2.86 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 16 | 95 | 380 | 90 | 20 | 7 | 73% | 4.3 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 3.60 | 4.19 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 16 | 95 | 380 | 90 | 20 | 7 | 73% | 4.3 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 18.4% | 1.8% | 3.60 | 2.79 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 60 | 237 | 74 | 15 | 5 | 5% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 6.5% | 18.8% | 2.3% | 2.87 | 3.04 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 2 | 60 | 237 | 74 | 15 | 5 | 5% | 1.6 | 31.2% | 6.3% | 24.9% | 2.1% | 2.87 | 2.46 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 3 | 78 | 321 | 99 | 10 | 8 | 6% | 1.5 | 27.2% | 3.3% | 23.9% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 2.76 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 3 | 78 | 321 | 99 | 10 | 8 | 6% | 1.5 | 30.8% | 3.1% | 27.7% | 2.5% | 3.22 | 2.28 | +2.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.8% | 5.3% | 24.6% | 3.5% | 3.00 | 3.16 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 0 | 15 | 57 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 29.8% | 5.3% | 24.6% | 3.5% | 3.00 | 3.17 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 18 | 84 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 13.3% | 21.3% | 2.6% | 6.00 | 3.31 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 18 | 84 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.5% | 11.9% | 22.6% | 2.4% | 6.00 | 2.99 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 23.1% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 1.99 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 1.5% | 3.63 | 1.89 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.60 | 9.34 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 5 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.60 | 9.90 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 0 | 36 | 162 | 44 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 5.3% | 5.45 | 4.99 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 0 | 36 | 162 | 44 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 7.4% | 19.8% | 4.9% | 5.45 | 4.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | SF | 135 | 0 | 142 | 600 | 148 | 38 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 18.3% | 3.5% | 3.95 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 124 | 0 | 130 | 550 | 129 | 38 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 3.7% | 4.23 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 113 | 0 | 119 | 501 | 113 | 38 | 20 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.51 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 48 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 3.7% | 4.23 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 4.51 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 137 | 1 | 158 | 665 | 167 | 40 | 22 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 3.56 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 211 | 51 | 28 | 1% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 3.3% | 4.25 | 3.56 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 213 | 51 | 491 | 2003 | 417 | 132 | 52 | 24% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 3.59 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 21 | 200 | 815 | 170 | 54 | 21 | 24% | 2.3 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.54 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cody Stashak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.12 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 3.5% | — | 4.55 | 23.0% | 15.8% | 249 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Joe Blanton R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 83 |
| Nick Martinez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .286 | 3.65 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 413 | -0.12 | 2.97 | 1,073 | 68 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 67 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 63 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.56 | 290 | 63 |
| Sam LeCure R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 62 |
| Deolis Guerra R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 23.0% | 7.4% | 3.1% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 364 | 60 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 60 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.73 | 2.80 | 288 | 58 |
| Dillon Gee R 2025 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 58 |
| Tom Koehler R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 58 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 5.02 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | .268 | 5.32 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.30 | 3.84 | 567 | 58 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 58 |
| Pat Neshek R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.65 | 22.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | .268 | 2.40 | 24.6% | 21.9% | 134 | -1.25 | 1.48 | 206 | 58 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 57 |
| Alex Wilson R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.01 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 326 | 57 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 57 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.36 | 22.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | .307 | 4.29 | 21.8% | 15.7% | 311 | -0.07 | 2.03 | 804 | 57 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 57 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 57 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 130 | 23.6% | 6.9% | 1.44 | 4.21 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Luis Garcia ('23) | 3 | 113 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 1.19 | 3.63 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |