Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 10 | 10 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 3.52 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 10 | 10 | 41 | 172 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 4.1 | 22.7% | 5.2% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 2.85 | 2.49 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.4% | 4.9% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 3.48 | 1.66 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 2 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.4% | 4.9% | 19.5% | 0.0% | 3.48 | 1.75 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 34 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 11.3% | 13.0% | -1.7% | 2.2% | 3.97 | 4.98 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 34 | 0 | 48 | 209 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 15.3% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 4.57 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 38 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 49 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.50 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 38 | 0 | 46 | 198 | 49 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 6.1% | 18.7% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 3.45 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 35 | 0 | 53 | 231 | 51 | 11 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.0% | 5.5% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 5.60 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 35 | 0 | 53 | 231 | 51 | 11 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.8% | 17.3% | 3.5% | 5.60 | 3.76 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 1 | 38 | 154 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4% | 1.5 | 19.2% | 4.4% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 3.29 | 2.92 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 1 | 38 | 154 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 4% | 1.5 | 24.0% | 3.9% | 20.1% | 1.3% | 3.29 | 2.32 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 68 | 308 | 40 | 37 | 12 | 2% | 1.6 | 10.8% | 13.2% | -2.4% | 4.3% | 4.87 | 6.24 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 1 | 68 | 308 | 40 | 37 | 12 | 2% | 1.6 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 5.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 33 | 41 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.0% | 13.7% | -2.7% | 3.3% | 6.09 | 6.09 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 35 | 39 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 13.4% | -1.3% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 35 | 37 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 13.4% | -0.6% | 3.5% | 5.94 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 13.4% | -1.3% | 3.4% | 5.97 | 6.00 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.7% | 13.4% | -0.6% | 3.5% | 5.94 | 6.00 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 32 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.5% | 13.4% | -0.9% | 3.4% | 5.95 | 5.62 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 104 | 114 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.5% | 13.4% | -0.9% | 3.4% | 5.95 | 5.62 | -0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 186 | 14 | 305 | 1313 | 200 | 114 | 37 | 8% | 1.6 | 15.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.46 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 9 | 200 | 862 | 131 | 75 | 24 | 8% | 1.6 | 15.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Anderson Bido (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.09 | 11.0% | 13.7% | 3.3% | — | 6.00 | 12.4% | -1.0% | 133 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 86 |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.72 | 10.4% | 13.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 4.59 | 16.9% | 5.8% | 31 | -1.13 | 3.64 | 204 | 85 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2024 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.45 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.27 | 124 | 81 |
| Mike Hepple R 2025 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.74 | 11.1% | 18.5% | 2.2% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 116 | 81 |
| Trey Haley R 2025 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 14.0% | 16.5% | 1.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 111 | 80 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.69 | 10.3% | 13.8% | 4.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 144 | 80 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2025 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.20 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 104 | 79 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2029 · 5.27 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.27 | 8.3% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .365 | 4.44 | 11.4% | 3.1% | 109 | -0.83 | 4.15 | 152 | 79 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 79 |
| Justin Camp R 2024 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 13.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 140 | 78 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 78 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 78 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2024 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 78 |
| Jack Anderson R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.29 | 10.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 250 | 77 |
| Travis Kuhn R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 13.9% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 246 | 77 |
| Roel Garcia III R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.46 | 10.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 252 | 77 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.23 | 11.9% | 16.3% | 1.9% | .308 | 5.15 | 15.9% | 2.1% | 61 | -0.08 | 3.64 | 237 | 77 |
| Jaycob Deese R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.90 | 13.4% | 13.9% | 4.0% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.27 | 185 | 77 |
| Jake Christianson R 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 188 | 77 |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 11.9% | 13.5% | 1.30 | 6.00 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |