Manuel Olivares

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 145 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKCOL	11	8	49	3.70	2.79	19.1%	6.2%	—	K 13.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.70
2025	23	MIX2 levels	22	11	77	3.96	2.91	22.1%	9.4%	—	K 15.5% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.96
2026	24	ACOL	33	0	84	5.27	3.98	23.4%	10.6%	—	K 17.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.13
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	—	—	0	5.47	5.47	15.6%	13.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCOL	22	0	23	5.33	5.31	16.9%	12.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCOL	28	0	29	5.27	5.27	17.3%	12.5%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Robbie Peto (age 25) · Dennis O'Grady (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.47

FIP5.47

K%15.6%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%2.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	14	8	44	183	25	10	4	57%	3.1	9.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.1%	2.47	4.86	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	14	8	44	183	25	10	4	57%	3.1	13.7%	5.5%	8.2%	2.2%	2.47	3.83	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	7	44	182	32	12	2	64%	4.0	12.0%	8.2%	3.7%	1.4%	2.23	3.92	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	7	44	182	32	12	2	64%	4.0	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	1.1%	2.23	3.05	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	11	56	229	63	9	4	100%	5.1	18.7%	4.9%	13.8%	2.0%	3.36	3.23	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	11	56	229	63	9	4	100%	5.1	27.5%	3.9%	23.6%	1.7%	3.36	2.27	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	11	8	49	209	40	13	2	73%	4.4	13.0%	7.8%	5.2%	1.3%	3.70	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	11	8	49	209	40	13	2	73%	4.4	19.1%	6.2%	12.9%	1.0%	3.70	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	1.3%	3.96	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	1.3%	3.96	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	22.1%	9.4%	12.6%	0.9%	3.96	2.91	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	3.5%	5.27	5.13	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	3.5%	5.27	5.13	—
2026	24	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	2.7%	5.27	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	13.1%	2.5%	3.0%	5.47	5.47	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	52	0	55	231	39	29	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.0%	5.33	5.31	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	44	0	47	197	34	25	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	3.1%	5.27	5.27	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	41	0	43	181	32	23	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.1%	5.28	5.31	-0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	38	0	40	167	29	21	5	0%	1.0	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	3.3%	5.35	5.42	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	34	0	36	152	26	20	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.9%	4.1%	3.5%	5.50	5.59	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	22	0	23	97	16	12	3	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.7%	4.2%	3.0%	5.33	5.31	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	28	0	29	122	21	15	4	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	3.1%	5.27	5.27	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	32	135	24	17	4	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.1%	5.28	5.31	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	32	135	24	17	4	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.6%	4.8%	3.3%	5.35	5.42	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	30	0	31	131	22	17	5	0%	1.0	17.1%	12.9%	4.1%	3.5%	5.50	5.59	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	0	148	624	108	79	20	0%	1.0	17.3%	12.6%	4.6%	3.2%	5.35	5.01	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	146	107	27	0%	1.1	17.3%	12.6%	4.6%	3.2%	5.35	5.01	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		102	45	354	1519	227	141	33	44%	3.5	14.9%	9.3%	5.6%	2.2%	3.74	4.21	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	25	200	858	128	80	19	44%	3.5	14.9%	9.3%	5.6%	2.2%	3.74	4.21	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 84 IPFIP 3.93 → 5.13 (+1.19)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.740	17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.64%	—	×1.180	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.93 → 5.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rockies · 48 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.45 (+0.99)K% 23.0% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.97%	—	×0.680	15.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.250	10.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.48%	÷0.970	×1.400	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 29 IPFIP 3.65 → 4.78 (+1.13)K% 20.6% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.61%	—	×0.740	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.180	13.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.870	×1.300	2.28%

Result: FIP 3.65 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Rockies · 49 IPFIP 2.80 → 3.70 (+0.90)K% 19.1% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.14%	—	×0.680	13.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.22%	—	×1.250	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷1.031	×1.400	1.30%

Result: FIP 2.80 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Rockies · 56 IPFIP 2.23 → 3.23 (+1.00)K% 27.5% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.51%	—	×0.680	18.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.93%	—	×1.250	4.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.233	×1.400	1.98%

Result: FIP 2.23 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKDSL Rockies · 44 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.92 (+0.86)K% 17.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.58%	—	×0.680	11.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.59%	—	×1.250	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.078	×1.400	1.43%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKDSL Rockies · 44 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.86 (+1.02)K% 13.7% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.66%	—	×0.680	9.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.46%	—	×1.250	6.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.06%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Olivares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.47	15.6%	13.1%	3.0%	—	5.30	17.2%	4.6%	144	-0.17	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	87
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	86
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	84
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	84
Carlos Tavera R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	25	SW	5.12	18.3%	13.3%	3.4%	.299	5.43	21.9%	8.8%	29	+0.31	3.85	263	84
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	5.01	15.0%	4.8%	193	+0.58	3.37	401	83
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	83
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	81
Mike Franco R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP-	4.75	17.2%	12.9%	2.7%	.251	4.33	21.9%	12.7%	98	-0.42	3.11	322	81
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	80
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	80
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	79
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	79
Jake Bray R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	25	SP-	5.37	15.4%	11.2%	3.9%	.294	5.65	20.5%	7.7%	61	+0.28	2.51	198	79
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	79
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	48	16.8%	12.7%	1.21	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*