Manuel Olivares
P
ACL Rockies
+0.3
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 145 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2027
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.5%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 14 | 8 | 44 | 183 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 2.47 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 7 | 44 | 182 | 32 | 12 | 2 | 12.0% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 2.23 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rockies | 11 | 11 | 56 | 229 | 63 | 9 | 4 | 18.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 3.36 | 3.11 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 49 | 209 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 3.70 | 3.69 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 22 | 11 | 77 | 340 | 75 | 32 | 3 | 15.5% | 11.5% | 1.3% | 3.96 | 3.94 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 66 | 31 | 9 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 69 | 30 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 70 | 29 | 9 | 22.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 69 | 29 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 68 | 29 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 66 | 28 | 9 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 64 | 28 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 61 | 27 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 58 | 27 | 8 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 54 | 26 | 8 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 51 | 25 | 8 | 20.8% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 47 | 24 | 8 | 20.4% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 43 | 23 | 8 | 20.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 45 | 270 | 1143 | 161 | 94 | 19 | 14.1% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 3.26 | 3.87 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 33 | 200 | 846 | 119 | 70 | 14 | 14.1% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 3.26 | 3.87 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Olivares (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.35 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 222 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 93 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 92 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 92 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 92 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 92 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 92 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 91 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 90 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 90 |
| Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 89 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 89 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 89 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .309 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.62 | 2.78 | 312 | 89 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 89 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .250 | 6.54 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.83 | 3.71 | 114 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 88 |
| David Goforth R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 88 |
| Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 3.0% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 124 | 87 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.14 | 4.44 | 100 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$5M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $8M | $7M | -$0.8M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.