Manuel Olivares — OGILVIE

Manuel Olivares P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 145 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%14.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	14	8	44	183	25	10	4	57%	3.1	9.3%	6.8%	2.5%	3.1%	2.47	4.86	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	14	8	44	183	25	10	4	57%	3.1	13.7%	5.5%	8.2%	2.2%	2.47	3.83	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	7	44	182	32	12	2	64%	4.0	12.0%	8.2%	3.7%	1.4%	2.23	3.92	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	7	44	182	32	12	2	64%	4.0	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	1.1%	2.23	3.05	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	11	56	229	63	9	4	100%	5.1	18.7%	4.9%	13.8%	2.0%	3.36	3.23	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	11	56	229	63	9	4	100%	5.1	27.5%	3.9%	23.6%	1.7%	3.36	2.27	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	11	8	49	209	40	13	2	73%	4.4	13.0%	7.8%	5.2%	1.3%	3.70	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	11	8	49	209	40	13	2	73%	4.4	13.0%	7.8%	5.2%	1.3%	3.70	3.70	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	11	8	49	209	40	13	2	73%	4.4	19.1%	6.2%	12.9%	1.0%	3.70	2.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	1.3%	3.96	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	15.5%	11.5%	4.0%	1.3%	3.96	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	77	340	75	32	3	50%	3.5	22.1%	9.4%	12.6%	0.9%	3.96	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	3.5%	5.27	5.13	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	17.3%	12.6%	4.8%	3.5%	5.27	5.13	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	COL	33	0	84	376	88	40	10	0%	2.5	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	2.7%	5.27	3.93	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	26	4	3	1	0%	1.0	14.6%	12.1%	2.6%	2.8%	5.32	5.32	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	90	402	92	43	11	—	—	22.8%	10.7%	12.1%	2.7%	5.27	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	79	0	83	350	57	39	10	0%	1.0	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.8%	5.13	5.08	-0.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	79	0	83	350	60	38	10	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	78	0	82	345	60	37	10	0%	1.0	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.97	4.97	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	75	0	79	334	65	34	10	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	3.0%	4.84	4.77	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	72	0	76	319	61	33	10	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.90	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	68	0	71	300	56	32	10	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	3.3%	5.00	5.08	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	33	0	35	148	24	17	4	0%	1.1	16.2%	11.2%	5.0%	2.8%	5.13	5.08	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	52	0	55	232	40	25	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	60	0	63	266	46	29	8	0%	1.1	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	2.9%	4.97	4.97	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	64	0	67	283	55	29	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	3.0%	4.84	4.77	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	63	0	66	279	53	29	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.3%	8.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.90	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	61	0	64	270	51	29	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.6%	8.1%	3.3%	5.00	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		333	0	350	1478	268	157	45	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	90	26	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.6%	7.6%	3.0%	4.96	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		102	45	354	1519	227	141	33	44%	3.5	14.9%	9.3%	5.6%	2.2%	3.74	4.21	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	25	200	858	128	80	19	44%	3.5	14.9%	9.3%	5.6%	2.2%	3.74	4.21	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Olivares (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	14.6%	12.1%	2.8%	—	5.01	16.9%	5.9%	248	-0.31	—	—	—
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	87
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	87
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	86
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	85
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	83
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	83
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	82
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	82
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	81
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	80
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	80
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	80
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	79
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	79
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	77	17.5%	10.8%	1.15	5.02
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78