Peniel Otano — OGILVIE

Peniel Otano P Hillsboro Hops

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 190 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 121

ERA5.50

FIP5.50

K%18.4%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%2.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 2	14	13	56	236	67	14	2	93%	4.0	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	1.2%	3.05	3.06	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 2	14	13	56	236	67	14	2	93%	4.0	28.4%	5.9%	22.5%	0.8%	3.05	1.92	—
2022	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	14	83	390	68	42	8	61%	3.6	12.9%	12.7%	0.2%	2.5%	5.86	5.00	—
2022	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	23	14	83	390	68	42	8	61%	3.6	17.4%	10.8%	6.7%	2.1%	5.86	4.23	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	39	0	56	260	58	39	2	0%	1.4	17.2%	17.2%	-0.1%	1.0%	6.91	4.39	—
2023	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	39	0	56	260	58	39	2	0%	1.4	17.2%	17.2%	-0.1%	1.0%	6.91	4.39	—
2023	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	39	0	56	260	58	39	2	0%	1.4	22.3%	15.0%	7.3%	0.8%	6.91	3.58	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	37	178	34	30	0	0%	1.1	14.4%	19.6%	-5.2%	0.0%	4.42	4.37	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	37	178	34	30	0	0%	1.1	14.4%	19.6%	-5.2%	0.0%	4.42	4.37	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	37	178	34	30	0	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.9%	2.2%	0.0%	4.42	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	ARI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.4%	16.3%	2.2%	2.8%	5.50	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	31	0	33	139	27	22	4	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.35	5.33	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	13	0	14	59	12	9	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.35	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	12	9	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.35	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	128	28	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	2.8%	5.35	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		108	27	232	1064	166	147	15	25%	2.1	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	1.4%	5.21	4.31	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	23	200	919	143	127	13	25%	2.1	15.6%	13.8%	1.8%	1.4%	5.21	4.31	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peniel Otano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	18.4%	16.3%	2.8%	—	5.33	19.5%	4.0%	33	-0.17	—	—	—
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	84
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	80
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	79
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	78
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	78
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	77
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	77
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	76
Drake Fellows R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	25	SW	5.66	17.1%	20.4%	2.6%	.367	4.91	14.2%	5.1%	266	-0.75	4.32	277	76
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	76
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	76
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	75
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	75
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	75
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	19.1%	15.8%	1.07	5.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77