David Medina

P DSL Orioles Orange

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	9	0	16	6.06	1.88	28.0%	4.0%	—	K 19.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.37
2026	19	ROKDSL Orioles O…	11	11	35	6.69	2.61	19.3%	9.3%	—	K 13.1% · BB 11.6% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	20	MLBBAL	4	4	17	4.71	4.71	19.3%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBAL	3	3	16	4.58	4.52	20.4%	9.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsFraynel Nova (age 20) · Moises Castillo (age 19) · Nicholas Economos (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%19.3%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	2.3%	6.06	3.37	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	2.3%	6.06	3.37	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	9	0	16	75	21	3	1	0%	1.8	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	1.3%	6.06	1.88	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	13.1%	11.6%	1.4%	0.0%	6.69	3.47	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	13.1%	11.6%	1.4%	0.0%	6.69	3.47	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	35	161	31	15	0	100%	3.2	19.3%	9.3%	9.9%	0.0%	6.69	2.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BAL	4	4	17	72	14	7	2	100%	4.2	19.3%	10.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	33	140	28	13	4	100%	4.7	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.52	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	16	68	14	6	2	100%	5.3	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.52	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	14	7	2	100%	5.4	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.14	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	172	86	25	100%	4.8	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.58	4.14	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		20	11	51	236	35	22	2	55%	2.6	15.0%	9.5%	5.4%	0.7%	6.49	3.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	43	200	919	138	88	7	55%	2.6	15.0%	9.5%	5.4%	0.7%	6.49	3.44	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Medina (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	19.3%	10.2%	2.9%	—	4.52	20.4%	10.8%	33	-0.19	—	—	—
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	86
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	84
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Gilberto Batista R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP-	4.00	16.9%	11.4%	1.6%	.308	5.86	14.7%	4.9%	172	+1.86	3.63	250	82
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	81
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	81
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	81
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	80
Andy Basora R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP-	3.67	16.5%	11.0%	1.0%	.278	3.98	15.6%	4.9%	92	+0.31	2.73	185	80
Adriel Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	20	SP-	4.21	14.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	117	80
Roger Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	20	SP-	5.15	16.4%	9.6%	4.0%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	128	80
Donal Montas R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	20	SP-	5.29	17.3%	9.1%	4.5%	.217	5.03	10.2%	-3.8%	91	-0.26	4.10	156	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Damian Mendoza R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.0%	10.3%	2.8%	.371	4.53	17.9%	7.7%	178	-0.16	2.73	314	79
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	79
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.0%	9.8%	1.10	4.62
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*