Tony Gonzalez

P FCL Pirates

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 194 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ROKDSL Pirates G…	11	15	5.40	4.10	20.3%	20.3%	—	K 13.8% · BB 25.3% · FIP 5.15
2026	22	MIX2 levels	14	20	8.10	2.55	30.1%	16.5%	—	K 20.9% · BB 19.2% · FIP 3.77
2027PROJ	23	MLBPIT	10	10	5.48	5.48	21.9%	17.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBPIT	9	9	5.19	5.08	22.6%	15.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBrendan Nail (age 23) · Dillon Larsen (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121129vR 137

ERA5.48

FIP5.48

K%21.9%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP10

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	13.8%	25.3%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	13.8%	25.3%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.40	5.15	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	11	0	15	74	15	15	0	0%	1.4	20.3%	20.3%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	4.10	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	103	31	17	0	0%	1.4	20.9%	19.2%	1.7%	0.0%	8.10	3.77	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	103	31	17	0	0%	1.4	20.9%	19.2%	1.7%	0.0%	8.10	3.77	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	103	31	17	0	0%	1.4	30.1%	16.5%	13.6%	0.0%	8.10	2.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PIT	10	0	10	42	9	8	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	17.8%	4.1%	2.9%	5.48	5.48	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	19	13	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	15.2%	7.4%	2.9%	5.19	5.08	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	9	6	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	15.2%	7.4%	2.9%	5.19	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	15.2%	7.4%	2.9%	5.19	4.70	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	22.6%	15.2%	7.4%	2.9%	5.19	4.70	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		25	0	35	177	32	39	0	0%	1.4	17.9%	21.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.94	4.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	0	200	1011	181	220	0	0%	1.4	17.9%	21.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	6.94	4.34	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tony Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.48	21.9%	17.8%	2.9%	—	5.08	22.6%	7.4%	20	-0.40	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	90
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	89
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	88
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	87
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	86
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	83
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	83
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	82
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	82
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.29	22.7%	2.9%	76	+0.53	3.06	183	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	79
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	79
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	79
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	78
Juan Pichardo L 2021 · 4.83 FIP	23	SU	4.83	17.7%	17.1%	1.9%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	103	78
Eric Torres L 2023 · 6.58 FIP	23	SU	6.58	21.7%	19.8%	5.1%	.283	4.18	26.5%	10.4%	56	-2.40	2.81	155	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	78