Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 28 | 0 | 42 | 188 | 47 | 30 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 18.8% | -0.3% | 1.4% | 7.29 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 28 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 71 | 312 | 76 | 42 | 6 | — | — | 24.3% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 1.8% | 6.09 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 32 | 136 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 32 | 134 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | SD | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | SD | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.3% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | SD | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 31 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 8.2% | 17.6% | 2.8% | 3.93 | 3.90 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 8.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | SD | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 177 | 0 | 186 | 785 | 199 | 66 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.60 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 214 | 71 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 17.0% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 0 | 42 | 188 | 35 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 18.8% | -0.3% | 1.4% | 7.29 | 4.68 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 0 | 200 | 895 | 166 | 169 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 18.8% | -0.3% | 1.4% | 7.29 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Langley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.06 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 96 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 91 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 91 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 89 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.65 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.15 | 3.00 | 144 | 89 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.65 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.9% | .275 | 4.67 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.02 | 4.65 | 140 | 89 |
| David Garner R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 89 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 88 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 88 |
| Tyler Bray R 2028 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .356 | 3.17 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 114 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 152 | 87 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 87 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 87 |
| Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.39 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .268 | 3.04 | 24.0% | 17.9% | 128 | -0.35 | 2.40 | 294 | 87 |
| Luke Bell R 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 86 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.53 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .311 | 5.00 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.47 | 3.53 | 123 | 86 |
| Reilly Hovis R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.03 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | .250 | 4.41 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.38 | 4.03 | 130 | 86 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.22 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.6% | .238 | 3.61 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.39 | 2.90 | 119 | 86 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 4.09 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 134 | +0.14 | 3.24 | 172 | 86 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 86 |
| Devon Roedahl R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.92 | 16.5% | 9.2% | 100 | +0.98 | 3.94 | 122 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 32 | 25.1% | 8.6% | 1.12 | 4.08 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Tyler Clippard ('21) | 7 | 54 | 25.9% | 9.0% | 1.29 | 3.47 |