Aaron Holiday
P
Peoria Chiefs
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%22.8%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP9
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 38.1% | 9.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.09 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 38.1% | 9.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.34 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 35 | 0 | 57 | 250 | 74 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 4.42 | 4.96 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 35 | 0 | 57 | 250 | 74 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.6 | 29.6% | 9.6% | 20.0% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 37 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.1% | 19.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 4.75 | 5.26 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 22 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 37 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 16.9% | 9.2% | 1.4% | 4.75 | 3.89 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 21 | 26 | 0 | 7% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 35.7% | -17.6% | 0.0% | 7.63 | 6.09 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 14 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 21 | 26 | 0 | 7% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 30.2% | -5.8% | 0.0% | 7.63 | 5.45 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 14 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 27 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 3.97 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | 8 | 0 | 10 | 56 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.8% | 22.6% | -8.8% | 6.7% | 8.10 | 8.48 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 19 | 95 | 19 | 15 | 4 | — | — | 19.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.42 | 6.62 | -0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | STL | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 22.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | STL | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.23 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 108 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 1 | 141 | 658 | 136 | 118 | 20 | 1% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.32 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 136 | 1 | 200 | 933 | 193 | 168 | 29 | 1% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 18.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 5.32 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Holiday (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 22.9% | 11.5% | 20 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 86 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 85 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 85 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 81 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 81 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 81 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 81 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 81 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 81 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 80 |
| Logan Boyer R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.65 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .267 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.33 | 3.65 | 121 | 80 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 80 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 80 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 80 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .214 | 3.04 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.50 | 2.59 | 156 | 80 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 79 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.87 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.03 | 1.61 | 124 | 79 |