Aaron Holiday — OGILVIE

Aaron Holiday P Peoria Chiefs

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%21.5%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	3	0	6	21	8	2	0	0%	1.9	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.09	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	3	0	6	21	8	2	0	0%	1.9	38.1%	9.5%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.34	—
2022	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	35	0	57	250	74	24	7	0%	1.6	21.9%	11.3%	10.6%	3.9%	4.42	4.81	—
2022	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	35	0	57	250	74	24	7	0%	1.6	29.6%	9.6%	20.0%	2.8%	4.42	3.36	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	0	30	142	37	24	2	0%	1.4	20.1%	19.4%	0.6%	2.1%	4.75	5.01	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	0	30	142	37	24	2	0%	1.4	20.1%	19.4%	0.6%	2.1%	4.75	5.01	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	22	0	30	142	37	24	2	0%	1.4	26.1%	16.9%	9.2%	1.4%	4.75	3.89	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	1	15	86	21	26	0	7%	1.1	18.1%	35.7%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.63	6.09	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	1	15	86	21	26	0	7%	1.1	18.1%	35.7%	-17.6%	0.0%	7.63	6.09	—
2024	24	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	14	1	15	86	21	26	0	7%	1.1	24.4%	30.2%	-5.8%	0.0%	7.63	5.45	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	23	103	27	14	2	0%	1.6	20.8%	16.6%	4.2%	2.3%	3.97	4.73	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	14	0	23	103	27	14	2	0%	1.6	20.8%	16.6%	4.2%	2.3%	3.97	4.73	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	14	0	23	103	27	14	2	0%	1.6	26.2%	13.6%	12.6%	1.9%	3.97	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	8	0	10	56	10	11	3	0%	1.2	13.8%	22.6%	-8.8%	6.7%	8.10	8.48	—
YTD	26	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	8	0	10	56	10	11	3	0%	1.2	13.8%	22.6%	-8.8%	6.7%	8.10	8.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	STL	8	0	10	56	10	11	3	0%	1.2	17.9%	19.6%	-1.8%	5.4%	8.10	7.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	85	18	16	3	0%	1.1	21.7%	18.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.63	5.65	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	7	0	7	30	6	6	1	0%	1.0	21.7%	18.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.63	5.65	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	6	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	18.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.63	5.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	163	27	0%	1.1	21.7%	18.7%	2.9%	3.0%	5.63	5.26	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		96	1	141	658	136	118	19	1%	1.5	20.7%	18.0%	2.7%	2.9%	4.85	5.20	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	1	200	933	193	168	27	1%	1.5	20.7%	18.0%	2.7%	2.9%	4.85	5.20	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Holiday (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	21.5%	19.7%	2.9%	—	5.65	21.7%	2.9%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	83
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.09	18.9%	3.4%	102	-0.63	3.74	203	80
Manuel Alvarez R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	26	SU	5.02	20.3%	17.1%	2.7%	.330	6.63	11.8%	-14.8%	12	+1.61	4.58	154	79
Harrison Cooney R 2018 · 6.60 FIP	26	SU	6.60	18.8%	21.9%	4.2%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	186	79
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	79
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	79
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	78
Andrew Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	26	SU	4.87	18.9%	18.1%	1.9%	.311	3.78	23.0%	9.1%	75	-1.09	3.10	167	78
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	78
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	153	78
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	77
Evan Johnson R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	23.6%	17.6%	2.4%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	77
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	77
Yennier Cano R 2019 · 5.94 FIP	25	SU	5.94	17.6%	20.2%	3.2%	.219	3.89	23.6%	12.1%	128	-2.05	2.43	377	77
Josh Roberson R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	19.3%	16.1%	3.0%	.361	4.15	19.8%	5.7%	70	-1.02	3.17	229	77
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	76
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	76
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	76
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	76
Austin Ross R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	26	SU	4.99	22.4%	16.8%	3.0%	.295	5.74	18.0%	5.8%	15	+0.75	4.41	121	76