Ty Tice
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
5'9" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.82
FIP4.82
xFIP6.57
SIERA5.78
K%22.8%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%10.7%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
SL+1.5
FB-3.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 1.05 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 44 | 0 | 59 | 239 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 2.29 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 46 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 64 | 28 | 2 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 2.34 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 28 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 16.2% | 14.3% | 7.7% | 7.89 | 7.78 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 107 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 6.45 | 5.62 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 45 | 2 | 54 | 271 | 83 | 31 | 6 | 25.7% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 6.37 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 48 | 1 | 57 | 259 | 64 | 41 | 9 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 4.0% | 5.18 | 5.70 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 53 | 28 | 7 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 22.6% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 24 | 7 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 21.8% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 21.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 21.0% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 256 | 3 | 305 | 1376 | 286 | 176 | 43 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.70 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 2 | 200 | 901 | 187 | 115 | 28 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.70 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Tice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.90 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 152 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 87 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 83 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 83 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 82 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 79 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 77 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 76 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.84 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.98 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 107 | +0.14 | 2.98 | 306 | 76 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.49 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 76 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 75 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 75 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 75 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.