Ty Tice
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 30
RHP
5'9" / 185 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.84
FIP4.84
K%22.8%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP38
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.5
FB-3.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 1.05 | 4.29 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.7% | 10.3% | 22.4% | 1.9% | 1.05 | 2.67 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 239 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 1.4% | 2.29 | 3.76 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 239 | 56 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 14.6% | 1.3% | 2.29 | 2.93 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 64 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 0.9% | 2.34 | 3.24 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 0 | 58 | 251 | 64 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 0.8% | 2.34 | 2.79 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.2% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 8.2% | 7.89 | 8.02 | -1.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 30 | 142 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.89 | 6.84 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 107 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 6.45 | 5.33 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 22 | 0 | 22 | 107 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 6.45 | 5.03 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 2 | 54 | 271 | 83 | 31 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 25.7% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 6.37 | 4.23 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 2 | 54 | 271 | 83 | 31 | 6 | 4% | 1.2 | 30.6% | 11.4% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 6.37 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 57 | 259 | 64 | 41 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.9% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 5.73 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 57 | 259 | 64 | 41 | 9 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 15.8% | 8.9% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 36 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 34 | 0 | 36 | 151 | 34 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 21 | 94 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.70 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 170 | 114 | 28 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 3 | 305 | 1376 | 286 | 176 | 44 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.73 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 2 | 200 | 901 | 187 | 115 | 29 | 1% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 12.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.73 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Tice (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.99 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 36 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 86 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 86 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 79 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.71 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.90 | 3.62 | 164 | 78 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 78 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 76 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 75 |
| Roman Mendez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 230 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 74 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 74 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.70 | 19.9% | 14.1% | 4.5% | .261 | 3.75 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 101 | -1.95 | 2.59 | 309 | 74 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.00 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .288 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 144 | -0.34 | 3.03 | 256 | 74 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 22.6% | 12.1% | 1.28 | 4.87 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |