Matt Keating
P
Somerset Patriots
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.6%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 40 | 0 | 65 | 295 | 93 | 37 | 6 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 40 | 0 | 69 | 281 | 83 | 32 | 10 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 3.89 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 34 | 1 | 49 | 208 | 58 | 25 | 1 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 2.57 | 3.38 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 11.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 46 | 25 | 6 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.64 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 52 | 224 | 53 | 29 | 8 | 23.9% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 5.15 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 22.8% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 4.80 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 21.2% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 29 | 18 | 5 | 20.8% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 1 | 189 | 808 | 186 | 114 | 23 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.58 | 4.48 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 1 | 200 | 857 | 197 | 121 | 24 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.58 | 4.48 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Keating (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 22.8% | 12.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.59 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 143 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 90 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.98 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.8% | .305 | 7.30 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.32 | 3.48 | 153 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 86 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.17 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.16 | 4.01 | 142 | 86 |
| Trey Benton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 23.8% | 13.9% | 3.0% | .366 | 2.92 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 31 | -1.61 | 2.92 | 139 | 85 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 85 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.48 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .245 | 4.81 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.33 | 3.04 | 230 | 84 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 84 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 84 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.99 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.1% | .272 | 5.30 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.31 | 4.99 | 105 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 84 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 83 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 83 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 83 |
| Logan Boyer R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .267 | 4.91 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.70 | 121 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.