Matt Keating — OGILVIE

Matt Keating P Somerset Patriots

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%22.2%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.04	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0%	1.0	50.0%	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	40	0	65	295	93	37	6	0%	1.6	23.3%	14.8%	8.5%	2.4%	3.58	4.34	—
2023	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	40	0	65	295	93	37	6	0%	1.6	23.3%	14.8%	8.5%	2.4%	3.58	4.34	—
2023	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	40	0	65	295	93	37	6	0%	1.6	31.5%	12.5%	19.0%	2.0%	3.58	3.15	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	4.3%	3.89	5.20	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	22.7%	13.1%	9.6%	4.3%	3.89	5.20	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	40	0	69	281	83	32	10	0%	1.7	29.5%	11.4%	18.1%	3.6%	3.89	3.97	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	21.5%	13.8%	7.6%	0.6%	2.57	3.38	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	21.5%	13.8%	7.6%	0.6%	2.57	3.38	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	1	49	208	58	25	1	3%	1.4	27.9%	12.0%	15.9%	0.5%	2.57	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	36	0	38	177	57	26	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	16.2%	9.9%	4.1%	6.10	5.18	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	36	0	38	177	57	26	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	16.2%	9.9%	4.1%	6.10	5.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	NYY	36	0	38	177	57	26	6	0%	1.1	32.2%	14.7%	17.5%	3.4%	6.10	4.10	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	NYY	5	0	5	23	5	3	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.5%	7.8%	2.8%	4.96	4.96	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	44	200	62	29	7	—	—	31.1%	14.7%	16.4%	3.3%	5.96	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	59	0	62	263	59	37	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.88	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	59	0	62	260	59	35	7	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.86	4.87	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	26	0	27	114	26	16	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.89	4.88	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	37	0	39	165	37	22	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.86	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	281	63	39	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	117	24	0%	1.1	22.6%	13.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		151	1	223	965	226	139	28	1%	1.5	23.4%	14.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.87	4.53	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		135	1	200	865	202	124	25	1%	1.5	23.4%	14.4%	9.0%	2.9%	3.87	4.53	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Keating (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	22.2%	14.5%	2.8%	—	4.88	22.6%	8.8%	124	-0.08	—	—	—
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	93
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	92
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	92
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	91
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	91
Tommy Kahnle R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	23.8%	14.8%	2.1%	.284	2.58	30.9%	21.0%	165	-1.55	1.53	458	90
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.86	25.0%	14.1%	144	-0.48	3.15	191	90
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	89
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	89
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	89
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	89
Carlos Contreras R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	22.2%	15.6%	2.0%	.271	4.46	11.9%	2.4%	40	+0.17	4.29	107	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	89
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	87
Pat Light R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	25	SU	4.10	21.1%	13.1%	2.1%	.276	4.63	11.8%	-2.3%	55	+0.53	4.10	172	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	87
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	86
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	86
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	22.5%	14.0%	1.09	4.90
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41