Matt Keating
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%22.2%
BB%14.0%
K-BB%8.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.04 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Yankees | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 40 | 0 | 65 | 295 | 93 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 40 | 0 | 65 | 295 | 93 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.5% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 3.58 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 40 | 0 | 69 | 281 | 83 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 3.89 | 5.13 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 40 | 0 | 69 | 281 | 83 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.7 | 29.5% | 11.4% | 18.1% | 3.6% | 3.89 | 3.97 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 34 | 1 | 49 | 208 | 58 | 25 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 2.57 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 34 | 1 | 49 | 208 | 58 | 25 | 1 | 3% | 1.4 | 27.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 0.5% | 2.57 | 2.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 24 | 0 | 24 | 108 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 17.3% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 4.50 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 56 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 84 | 359 | 92 | 52 | 11 | — | — | 25.6% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.2% | 14.0% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 57 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 56 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 13.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 35 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.81 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 0 | 64 | 272 | 61 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 112 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 139 | 1 | 209 | 896 | 209 | 129 | 25 | 1% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 4.46 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 1 | 200 | 859 | 200 | 124 | 24 | 1% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 3.54 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Keating (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.82 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 118 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 93 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 92 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 91 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 90 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 90 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.55 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.16 | 3.96 | 242 | 89 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 89 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 88 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.11 | 21.1% | 13.1% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.66 | 11.8% | -2.3% | 55 | +0.55 | 4.11 | 172 | 87 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 87 |
| Cody Tucker R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 86 |
| Justin Evans R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 1.5% | .323 | 4.80 | 16.4% | -7.9% | 14 | +1.07 | 3.73 | 105 | 86 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 86 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 86 |
| Craig Brooks R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 23.4% | 15.1% | 1.8% | .260 | 5.40 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 59 | +1.38 | 3.30 | 229 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 86 |
| Carter Loewen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 23.1% | 15.0% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 23 | -0.07 | 2.67 | 145 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 1.09 | 4.85 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |