Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 17 | 3 | 60 | 297 | 51 | 22 | 6 | 18% | 3.5 | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 7.31 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.7% | 9.2% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 100 | 465 | 89 | 37 | 11 | — | — | 19.2% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 6.14 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 37 | 0 | 38 | 162 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 0 | 107 | 450 | 105 | 41 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.94 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 77 | 26 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 3 | 60 | 297 | 38 | 26 | 8 | 18% | 3.5 | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 7.31 | 4.58 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 10 | 200 | 985 | 125 | 86 | 26 | 18% | 3.5 | 12.7% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 7.31 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dalton Neuschwander (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.29 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 120 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 79 |
| Connor Schultz R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | .283 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 124 | -0.19 | 3.47 | 171 | 79 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .341 | 4.64 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.30 | 3.76 | 467 | 78 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 78 |
| Hunter Stanley R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .270 | 5.46 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 148 | +1.73 | 3.73 | 184 | 77 |
| Darien Smith R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.47 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .253 | 4.67 | 19.0% | 6.1% | 32 | +1.20 | 3.47 | 102 | 76 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 76 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 75 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 75 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 74 |
| Luke Johnson R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.14 | 17.1% | 10.9% | 2.0% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 128 | 73 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 73 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 73 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 21.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .268 | 4.72 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 74 | +0.85 | 3.67 | 213 | 73 |
| Marcos Tineo R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.67 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .343 | 5.16 | 20.4% | 3.9% | 82 | +0.49 | 3.52 | 273 | 73 |
| Joe Vogatsky R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.82 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 4.3% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.82 | 120 | 72 |
| Luis Contreras R 2025 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.56 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.8% | 14.4% | 42 | -0.44 | 3.12 | 258 | 72 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 72 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 71 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 40 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 1.17 | 4.32 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |