Jase Mitchell — OGILVIE

Jase MitchellC FCL Astros

Age 20 L/R ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 133 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .291 / .277

PA133

HR1

K%33

BB%12

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	160	101	17	8	1	0	54	47	3	9	4	168	468	267	736	99	304	29	34	369	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	122	14	6	1	0	33	68	3	9	4	115	316	180	497	66	242	42	21	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	122	14	6	1	0	33	68	3	9	4	115	316	180	497	66	250	42	21	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	160	101	17	8	1	0	54	47	3	9	4	168	468	267	736	99	304	29	34	369	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	123	14	6	1	0	33	68	3	9	4	114	316	179	495	65	242	42	21	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	160	123	14	6	1	0	33	68	3	9	4	114	316	179	495	65	242	42	21	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	270	233	44	10	2	3	32	88	3	4	1	187	293	279	572	92	284	33	12	267	67	-11	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	25%	215	186	37	8	2	3	25	69	2	3	1	193	297	293	590	100	286	32	12	274	71	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	38%	337	291	58	13	2	5	39	106	4	5	1	197	300	305	605	107	287	31	12	279	75	-10	+1	-3	+6	+7	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	45%	420	364	74	16	3	7	48	129	5	6	1	201	303	315	617	113	288	31	11	284	78	-11	+1	-2	+8	+9	0.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	475	413	84	18	3	8	54	144	5	6	2	205	305	323	628	118	289	30	11	287	81	-11	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	507	439	90	19	3	9	57	151	6	7	2	207	306	330	636	122	290	30	11	290	83	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	520	450	94	20	3	10	59	155	6	7	2	208	306	331	637	123	289	30	11	291	83	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	520	450	93	20	3	9	59	156	6	7	2	206	305	328	633	122	289	30	11	289	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	50%	520	451	92	20	3	9	59	157	5	6	2	204	303	323	626	119	287	30	11	286	80	-12	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	520	452	91	19	3	9	58	159	5	5	2	202	300	317	617	115	286	31	11	283	77	-14	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	515	448	89	19	3	8	57	159	5	5	2	199	296	309	605	110	283	31	11	278	74	-16	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	487	425	82	17	3	7	54	152	5	4	4	194	292	298	590	104	280	31	11	272	70	-17	-1	-4	+9	+11	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	25%	53	46	9	2	0	1	6	17	1	1	0	195	300	297	597	102	291	32	11	276	71	-2	+0	-1	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	38%	129	112	23	5	1	2	15	40	1	2	0	200	303	309	612	109	292	31	12	282	75	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	45%	191	165	34	8	1	3	22	59	2	3	1	204	305	319	624	115	293	31	12	286	78	-5	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	228	197	42	9	2	4	26	69	3	3	1	208	307	327	634	119	294	30	11	290	81	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	251	218	46	10	2	4	28	75	3	3	1	210	309	334	642	123	295	30	11	293	83	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	263	228	49	11	2	5	30	79	3	3	1	210	309	335	643	124	294	30	11	293	83	-5	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	260	226	47	10	2	5	29	78	3	3	1	209	308	332	639	123	294	30	11	292	82	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	50%	259	225	46	10	2	4	29	78	3	3	1	207	305	327	632	120	292	30	11	289	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	252	219	45	10	2	4	28	77	3	3	1	205	303	321	623	116	291	31	11	285	77	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	269	234	47	10	2	4	30	83	3	3	1	201	299	312	611	111	288	31	11	281	74	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	268	233	47	10	2	4	30	84	3	2	2	197	294	302	596	105	285	31	11	275	70	-9	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2423	2103	435	95	18	40	273	739	28	29	10	207	306	326	632	119	296	30	11	286	77	-63	+2	-12	+43	+52	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	564	117	25	5	11	73	198	8	8	3	207	307	328	635	121	296	30	11	286	77	-17	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5329	4606	919	200	33	85	618	1648	58	72	25	200	302	313	615	113	287	31	12	282	77	-136	+4	-27	+92	+112	4.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	562	111	24	4	10	75	201	7	9	3	198	300	308	608	110	285	31	12	282	77	-17	+1	-3	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	5.3	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
/162	664	14	3	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#3Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Gerald Lairdlast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,690 PA	4.1	2,690	37	21	244	305	354	+48	-40	3.7	5.4
/162	664	9	5	+11.9	-9.8	0.9	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.8	2,556	42	31	203	299	317	+46	-12	5.0	4.6
/162	664	11	8	+11.9	-3.1	1.3	pk7: 4
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jase Mitchell (OGILVIE)	20	30→45	25→47	40	40	186/291/277	91	284	1	2	33%	12%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	42	39→45	42→45	49	199/281/287	88	284	6	6	30%	10%	64	-1.3	180/242/262	82	268	8	5	34%	7%	43	-2.8	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	37	39→45	47→45	49	178/272/261	83	262	6	6	32%	10%	55	-1.9	190/264/264	74	295	5	6	34%	9%	52	-2.2	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Imanol Vargas 2018 · A	20	42→43	39→50	43→45	46	195/281/282	87	299	6	7	34%	10%	63	-1.3	194/285/297	103	277	9	8	30%	11%	68	-1.0	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	39→50	45→50	45	198/273/287	89	286	6	8	31%	8%	61	-1.5	229/297/377	148	305	16	5	29%	7%	91	+0.6	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
✕Manuel Pena 2024 · A	20	43→50	39→50	47→50	39	203/254/293	90	301	6	10	33%	6%	54	-2.0	227/266/337	110	316	10	7	30%	5%	69	-0.9	238/273/365	128	316	15	5	29%	4%	76	-0.4
✕Colson Montgomery 2022 · A	20	47→48	36→55	44→45	43	216/286/287	71	312	3	5	30%	7%	65	-1.2	223/309/344	121	305	12	4	29%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/335	128	287	13	4	30%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Toribio 2021 · A	20	43→39	41→50	44→40	50	202/296/302	100	296	7	6	31%	11%	74	-0.6	187/262/303	116	311	12	2	40%	9%	61	-1.5	165/244/303	138	264	17	0	42%	9%	52	-1.3
✕Joe Mack 2022 · A	19	43→44	39→55	45	48	192/293/275	83	328	6	5	39%	12%	66	-1.1	203/280/302	99	298	11	2	33%	9%	67	-1.1	220/283/384	165	281	22	4	29%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Omar Alfonzo 2024 · A	20	43→41	41→45	48→40	51	206/298/303	97	298	9	5	31%	11%	74	-0.5	205/279/316	111	317	13	3	36%	9%	70	-0.9	192/266/301	109	300	14	1	38%	8%	59	-1.2
✕Omar Martinez 2022 · A	21	38→37	40→45	40	50	183/281/271	88	263	8	4	31%	10%	61	-1.5	196/279/313	117	276	13	5	32%	9%	70	-0.9	176/253/289	113	268	15	1	38%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Carlos Soto 2019 · A	20	40	40→45	43→30	46	198/266/283	86	263	8	3	27%	8%	57	-1.8	200/267/297	97	281	9	4	30%	7%	61	-1.5	168/258/285	117	236	11	0	32%	10%	54	-0.8
✕Izaac Pacheco 2023 · A	20	41→40	42→50	47→45	42	201/260/306	105	290	10	8	33%	7%	59	-1.6	187/250/307	120	297	13	5	39%	7%	57	-1.8	185/263/344	159	294	20	3	41%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Robert Lopez 2024 · A	20	41	40→45	47→45	42	199/261/293	94	286	8	4	32%	7%	57	-1.8	199/268/282	83	298	7	5	33%	8%	57	-1.8	174/254/236	62	263	5	4	33%	9%	40	-1.0
✕Creed Willems 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→50	48→30	35	182/242/277	95	274	7	4	35%	5%	47	-2.6	193/255/332	139	255	17	3	31%	6%	65	-1.2	210/277/346	136	255	18	1	25%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Clayton Campbell 2023 · A	19	37→44	37→45	41→45	44	174/265/248	74	284	4	4	37%	9%	50	-2.3	177/259/266	89	265	7	6	33%	8%	52	-2.2	157/241/237	80	226	7	5	32%	8%	38	-1.2
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2014 · A	20	45→51	36→45	48→50	43	209/269/278	70	308	3	8	31%	7%	56	-1.9	216/267/279	63	273	2	11	20%	7%	55	-1.9	241/294/348	107	314	8	10	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Thomas Hickman 2008 · A	20	43	39→50	45→40	45	204/275/295	91	294	5	7	30%	8%	63	-1.4	194/270/337	143	288	16	3	36%	8%	72	-0.7	178/259/328	150	256	18	1	36%	8%	65	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps