Creed Willems — OGILVIE

Creed WillemsC Norfolk Tides

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 225 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION273 act + 182 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .289 / .356

PA182

HR6

K%26

BB%7

BABIP261

ISO141

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$12M	+$9M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+1.9	$10M	+$7M
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
Totals		$20M		$67M	+$55M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	28	25	3	1	0	0	1	10	2	0	1	120	214	160	374	40	200	36	4	166	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	28	24	4	1	0	0	2	7	2	0	1	167	286	208	494	42	235	25	7	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	246	226	35	7	2	3	9	86	9	0	0	155	217	243	461	88	230	35	4	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	246	221	42	9	4	4	14	68	9	0	0	190	266	321	588	131	252	28	6	266	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	431	390	64	10	0	15	28	159	8	2	1	164	235	305	540	141	222	37	6	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	431	372	82	14	0	17	46	115	8	2	1	220	319	395	714	175	265	27	11	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	482	437	79	20	2	15	32	134	7	2	1	181	248	339	587	158	218	28	7	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	3 teams	—	482	426	111	26	3	19	43	95	7	2	1	261	338	469	808	209	290	20	9	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	434	391	88	19	1	10	26	99	12	1	2	225	294	355	649	130	274	23	6	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	434	379	96	21	1	16	38	83	12	1	2	253	340	441	781	187	283	19	9	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AAA	BAL	—	273	241	53	2	0	11	21	75	7	0	0	220	301	365	666	145	264	27	8	293	82	-5	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.7
YTD	23	AAA	BAL	—	273	231	60	2	0	13	31	62	7	0	0	260	364	437	802	177	294	23	11	356	130	+9	+0	+0	+5	+8	2.2
ROS	23	AAA	BAL	10%	182	163	35	5	0	6	13	47	4	0	0	215	289	356	645	141	261	26	7	289	79	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	10%	18	17	3	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	176	222	353	575	176	265	28	6	278	71	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	23	AAA	BAL	—	291	258	56	2	0	12	22	80	7	0	0	217	296	364	661	147	259	27	8	292	82	-6	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.8
TOT	23	AAA	BAL	—	455	404	88	7	0	17	34	122	11	0	0	218	296	361	658	144	263	27	7	291	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BAL	33%	493	445	99	14	1	17	35	126	10	1	1	222	294	373	667	151	267	26	7	296	85	-9	-0	+1	+9	+14	1.5
2028	25	MLB	BAL	46%	520	467	105	15	1	18	38	131	10	1	1	225	297	377	674	152	269	25	7	302	89	-6	-0	+1	+9	+15	1.8
2029	26	MLB	BAL	54%	520	466	105	15	1	18	39	130	10	1	1	225	299	378	677	152	270	25	8	304	91	-5	-0	+1	+9	+15	2.0
2030	27	MLB	BAL	57%	520	465	105	15	1	18	40	130	10	1	1	226	301	378	679	153	271	25	8	305	92	-5	-0	+1	+9	+15	2.0
2031	28	MLB	BAL	59%	520	465	104	15	1	18	40	131	10	1	1	224	299	376	675	153	270	25	8	304	91	-5	-0	-0	+9	+15	1.9
2032	29	MLB	BAL	58%	520	465	104	15	1	18	40	132	10	1	1	224	299	376	675	153	269	25	8	302	89	-6	-0	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2033	30	MLB	BAL	58%	520	464	104	15	1	18	41	133	10	1	1	224	301	377	678	153	268	26	8	299	87	-8	-0	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2034	31	MLB	BAL	58%	495	444	97	14	1	16	39	129	9	1	1	218	295	363	657	144	265	26	8	295	84	-9	-0	-2	+9	+14	1.2
2035	32	MLB	BAL	58%	462	415	89	12	1	15	36	122	8	1	0	214	290	357	646	142	262	26	8	290	80	-11	+0	-3	+8	+13	0.8
2027	24	MLB	BAL	33%	163	147	33	5	0	6	12	42	3	0	0	224	296	381	677	156	271	26	7	286	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2028	25	MLB	BAL	46%	241	216	50	7	1	9	18	61	5	1	0	231	305	398	704	167	273	25	7	292	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2029	26	MLB	BAL	54%	281	253	58	8	1	10	21	70	5	1	0	229	301	387	688	158	274	25	7	296	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2030	27	MLB	BAL	57%	296	265	62	9	1	11	23	74	6	1	0	234	310	400	710	166	275	25	8	296	85	-5	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2031	28	MLB	BAL	59%	305	272	63	9	1	11	24	77	6	1	0	232	308	393	701	162	274	25	8	295	84	-5	+0	-0	+5	+9	0.9
2032	29	MLB	BAL	58%	302	270	62	9	1	11	23	77	6	1	0	230	304	393	697	163	273	25	8	293	83	-6	+0	-0	+5	+9	0.8
2033	30	MLB	BAL	58%	301	269	62	9	1	11	23	77	6	1	0	230	305	394	699	164	272	26	8	291	81	-7	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.7
2034	31	MLB	BAL	58%	286	257	56	8	0	10	22	74	5	1	0	218	292	366	658	148	269	26	8	287	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.5
2035	32	MLB	BAL	58%	266	238	51	7	0	9	21	70	5	0	0	214	292	357	649	143	266	26	8	281	73	-8	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2459	2204	500	71	6	89	188	627	47	7	0	227	301	386	687	159	274	25	8	291	81	-53	+1	-3	+44	+70	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	133	19	2	24	50	166	12	2	0	228	302	391	693	163	275	26	8	291	81	-14	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.6
Career	—			—	6373	5728	1216	192	14	205	457	1699	129	14	13	212	285	358	643	146	262	27	7	286	77	-165	-2	-4	+114	+181	12.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	124	20	1	21	47	173	13	1	1	212	286	358	644	146	261	27	7	286	77	-17	-0	-0	+12	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	28	24	4	1	0	0	2	7	2	0	1	167	286	208	494	42	235	25	7	245	46	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	246	221	42	9	4	4	14	68	9	0	0	190	266	321	588	131	252	28	6	266	61	-11	+0	—	—	+7	-0.4
2023	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	311	276	53	8	0	9	26	86	4	0	1	192	271	319	590	127	237	28	8	266	62	-13	-0	—	—	+9	-0.5
2023	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	120	96	29	6	0	8	20	29	4	2	0	302	442	615	1.056	313	356	24	17	457	208	+15	+0	—	—	+3	1.9
2024	21	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	69	65	17	3	0	4	2	13	0	1	0	262	284	492	776	231	260	19	3	328	109	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	326	281	67	18	2	13	35	68	6	1	1	238	335	456	791	217	266	21	11	347	123	+9	-0	—	—	+9	1.8
2024	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	87	80	27	5	1	2	6	14	1	0	0	338	391	500	891	162	391	16	7	394	160	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	22	AA	Chesapeake Baysox	—	434	379	96	21	1	16	38	83	12	1	2	253	340	441	781	187	283	19	9	345	122	+11	-1	—	—	+12	2.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	7	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
	/162	664	21	6	245	302	422	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,473	85	6	223	294	375	+44	-20	7.6	7.1
	/162	664	23	2	223	294	375	+11.9	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 7
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	5	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
	/162	664	24	5	248	301	431	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Creed Willems (OGILVIE)	23	45	55	30	50	218/296/361	144	263	17	0	27%	7%	81	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Michael Wing 2012 · A	23	49→50	47→55	35→40	41	244/290/381	137	307	15	4	25%	5%	87	+0.8	216/256/337	121	284	11	5	27%	4%	61	-1.0	227/268/390	163	293	18	4	28%	4%	80	+0.2
●Taylor Green 2010 · AA	23	50→56	45→50	38→30	50	245/305/363	118	277	13	3	17%	7%	89	+0.9	243/300/384	141	281	14	2	18%	7%	92	+1.2	242/301/392	149	281	15	1	19%	7%	93	+1.0
✕Hank Conger 2011 · MLB	23	49→56	45→50	41→45	49	243/298/368	125	280	12	3	18%	7%	86	+0.8	232/288/363	131	272	15	3	20%	7%	82	+0.5	230/302/383	154	282	18	0	24%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A	23	40→37	47→55	37→40	46	206/268/342	136	253	15	4	25%	7%	68	-0.5	206/284/361	155	265	18	3	28%	9%	80	+0.4	187/284/370	183	237	21	4	30%	10%	81	+0.3
✕Jason Vosler 2018 · AA	24	40→43	48→55	41→40	43	207/273/350	142	258	17	3	27%	6%	72	-0.2	207/268/376	169	282	22	3	34%	7%	77	+0.1	215/280/388	173	267	23	3	28%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Emerson Frostad 2007 · A	24	47	49→50	38→40	45	237/292/393	156	291	17	5	24%	7%	91	+1.1	221/278/355	134	289	14	5	27%	7%	75	-0.0	208/271/330	123	269	12	3	26%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Joe Rizzo 2022 · AA	24	45→50	49→55	41→40	39	232/275/376	144	296	18	5	28%	5%	79	+0.3	233/281/392	159	289	20	4	26%	6%	86	+0.8	230/280/395	165	276	22	2	25%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Phillip Cuadrado 2007 · A	23	49→51	48→50	37→40	43	247/303/388	140	299	16	4	23%	5%	95	+1.4	225/284/351	126	291	13	5	26%	6%	77	+0.1	183/249/299	115	239	12	0	28%	6%	46	-0.6
✕Bobby Wilson 2007 · AA	24	50→52	46→50	35→40	45	249/289/377	129	276	13	3	16%	5%	85	+0.7	243/288/360	117	283	11	4	18%	6%	80	+0.4	241/289/349	108	288	10	0	20%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Blake DeWitt 2008 · AA	22	47→55	46→50	40	43	238/275/370	132	276	14	4	20%	5%	77	+0.1	243/306/371	128	279	11	4	17%	8%	91	+1.1	245/319/368	123	281	10	3	16%	9%	87	+0.7
✕Rio Ruiz 2018 · MLB	24	45→51	46→50	39→40	46	223/284/353	130	286	14	3	27%	8%	77	+0.1	223/280/352	129	276	14	3	24%	7%	75	-0.0	212/277/351	139	251	16	3	22%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	43→48	52→55	37→40	51	225/294/392	168	259	19	3	22%	9%	92	+1.2	222/270/374	152	260	18	3	22%	6%	77	+0.1	238/288/397	159	268	19	2	19%	6%	88	+0.5
✕Nick Hundley 2008 · AA	24	41→46	51→55	39→40	45	217/274/376	159	259	19	3	25%	7%	79	+0.3	223/280/380	157	271	18	4	24%	7%	82	+0.5	255/322/429	174	321	17	4	25%	8%	109	+1.2
✕Héctor Sánchez 2012 · MLB	22	49→50	45→50	37→30	42	244/283/366	122	295	12	2	22%	5%	79	+0.3	242/282/359	117	302	12	3	23%	5%	78	+0.2	218/263/386	168	257	23	0	26%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Edinson Rincon 2013 · AA	22	50→55	46→50	34→30	40	247/281/376	129	300	13	2	23%	4%	82	+0.5	233/273/324	91	301	7	4	24%	5%	63	-0.8	210/261/260	50	292	2	0	27%	5%	39	-1.1
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A	23	45→44	47→50	39→30	55	226/316/359	133	261	15	5	20%	10%	93	+1.3	219/299/371	152	267	18	3	25%	9%	89	+0.9	206/284/368	162	250	21	0	26%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Travis Scott 2008 · A	23	44	50→55	43→40	44	225/284/373	148	289	18	3	28%	7%	82	+0.5	223/277/378	155	288	17	5	28%	7%	81	+0.4	217/270/376	158	275	18	3	27%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Reese Havens 2011 · AA	24	44→40	51→45	40	47	225/301/385	160	282	19	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	213/287/341	128	307	14	4	33%	9%	76	+0.1	195/275/309	114	284	12	3	33%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Deivy Grullón 2019 · AA	23	45→42	49→55	41→30	37	232/265/370	139	299	17	2	29%	4%	73	-0.1	224/276/399	175	310	24	4	34%	6%	86	+0.8	204/264/390	187	280	28	1	37%	7%	75	+0.0
✕Michael McKenry 2009 · A	24	42→47	52→55	38→40	47	222/296/395	173	274	20	4	27%	8%	94	+1.3	219/282/356	137	276	15	3	25%	7%	77	+0.1	241/316/409	168	288	21	2	23%	9%	102	+0.7