Creed Willems

C Norfolk Tides
Age 24 L/R 5'11" / 225 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033
OGV OFP35OGV rank#723ETA2029MLB%10%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AA/A+/INTL3 orgs482.261/.338/.46919280—.186/.247/.353
202522AABAL434.253/.340/.44116182—.230/.298/.368
202623AAABAL453.254/.355/.41419079—.221/.299/.334
2027PROJ10% MLB24MLBBAL21.228/.297/.36510840.0
2028PROJ33% MLB25MLBBAL86.231/.300/.37630870.2
2029PROJ46% MLB26MLBBAL141.232/.302/.38250890.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
Max EV78
K%57
BB%51
Whiff%47
Z-Con%44
Chase%23
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 72%
CompsRonaldo Hernández (age 25) · Austin Allen (age 25) · Lenyn Sosa (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†84
AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .297 / .365
PA21
HR1
K%24
BB%5
BABIP277
ISO200
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: -1.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.30.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2027
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.3$1M+$0.4M
2030Arb-1$2M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-2$3M+0.3$0.9M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-3$3M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $5M +$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ROKFCL Orioles Orange — 2824 4100 272 01 167286208494 42235 257 245 1 — — — — — —
202219 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 246221 42944 14689 00 190266321588 131252 286 266 26 — — — — — —
202320 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 311276 53809 26864 01 192271319590 127237 288 266 24 — — — — — —
202320 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 12096 29608 20294 20 3024426151.056 313356 2417 457 114 — — — — — —
202421 AABowie Baysox — 6965 17304 2130 10 262284492776 231260 193 328 63 — — — — — —
202421 A+Aberdeen IronBirds — 326281 6718213 35686 11 238335456791 217266 2111 347 64 — — — — — —
202421 INTLSurprise Saguaros — 8780 27512 6141 00 338391500891 162391 167 394 153 — — — — — —
202522 AAChesapeake Baysox — 434379 9621116 388312 12 253340441781 187283 199 345 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAANorfolk Tides — 453382 974019 51989 00 254355414769 160284 2211 340 79 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 ROK MLEFCL Orioles Orange — 2825 3100 1102 01 120214160374 40191 364 169 1 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 246225 35733 10879 00 156221253475 98228 354 207 26 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 311287 42608 151144 01 146199251450 105194 375 204 24 — — — — — —
202320 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 120103 23406 13394 20 223333437770 214292 3211 337 114 — — — — — —
202421 AA MLEBowie Baysox — 6966 14203 1160 10 212224379603 167234 231 261 63 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLEAberdeen IronBirds — 326294 5314111 22906 11 180252347598 167211 287 263 64 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 434391 9019111 269712 12 230298368667 138271 226 290 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 453398 883014 351189 00 221299334633 113257 268 285 79 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEFCL Orioles Orange — 2825 3100 1102 01 120214160374 40200 364 169 1 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAWFCL Orioles Orange — 2824 4100 272 01 167286208494 42235 257 245 1 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 246225 35733 10879 00 156221253475 98234 354 207 26 — — — — — —
202219 A RAWDelmarva Shorebirds — 246221 42944 14689 00 190266321588 131252 286 266 26 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 431389 6610015 291538 21 170242311553 141226 357 241 49 — — — — — —
202320 A+ RAW2 teams — 431372 8214017 461158 21 220319395714 175265 2711 319 49 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE3 teams — 482440 8420217 291297 21 191252361613 170224 276 263 64 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAW3 teams — 482426 11126319 43957 21 261338469808 209290 209 353 64 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 434391 9019111 269712 12 230298368667 138276 226 290 82 — — — — — —
202522 AA RAWChesapeake Baysox — 434379 9621116 388312 12 253340441781 187283 199 345 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 453398 883014 351189 00 221299334633 113268 268 285 79 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAWNorfolk Tides — 453382 974019 51989 00 254355414769 160284 2211 340 79 — — — — — —
202118 ROK MLEFCL Orioles Orange — 2825 3100 1102 01 120214160374 40191 364 169 1 — — — — — —
202219 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 246225 35733 10879 00 156221253475 98228 354 207 26 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 431391 6610015 291538 21 169242309551 141221 357 241 49 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLE3 teams — 482443 8420217 291297 21 190252359611 169215 276 263 64 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 434393 9019111 269712 12 229298366665 137271 226 290 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 453406 883014 351189 00 217299328626 111257 268 285 79 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLE3 teams — 482443 8420217 291297 21 190252359611 169215 276 263 64 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLEChesapeake Baysox — 434393 9019111 269712 12 229298366665 137271 226 290 82 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLENorfolk Tides — 453406 883014 351189 00 217299328626 111257 268 285 79 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEBAL 10% 380343 7710111 26958 21 224293356649 132273 257 292 84 -7 +0 -3 +7 +8 0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXBAL 10% 2120 5101 150 00 228297365662 137277 245 297 84 -0 +0 -0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEBAL 33% 260235 53718 18645 11 227297366663 139275 257 297 87 -4 -0 -1 +5 +6 0.5
202926 MLB MLEBAL 46% 305274 649110 22756 11 228299372671 143276 257 300 89 -4 -0 -2 +5 +7 0.7
203027 MLB MLEBAL 52% 321289 669110 23796 11 228299371670 143276 257 300 89 -4 -0 -2 +6 +7 0.7
203128 MLB MLEBAL 56% 328295 6810110 24816 10 227298368666 141276 257 299 88 -5 +0 -2 +6 +7 0.6
203229 MLB MLEBAL 56% 321290 669110 23805 10 226296364660 138275 257 296 86 -5 +0 -3 +6 +7 0.5
203330 MLB MLEBAL 57% 314283 63919 23795 10 223292356648 133273 257 291 83 -6 +0 -4 +6 +7 0.3
203431 MLB MLEBAL 57% 283256 56808 20735 00 218287346633 127270 267 285 79 -7 +0 -4 +5 +6 -0.0
203532 MLB MLEBAL 63% 250226 49707 18654 00 213281333615 120266 267 278 74 -8 +0 -5 +4 +5 -0.3
202825 MLB CTXBAL 33% 8678 17203 6212 00 231300376676 145279 247 303 87 -1 +0 -0 +2 +2 0.2
202926 MLB CTXBAL 46% 141127 29405 10353 00 232302382684 149280 257 306 89 -2 +0 -1 +3 +3 0.3
203027 MLB CTXBAL 52% 167150 35506 12413 00 232303381683 148280 257 305 89 -2 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.4
203128 MLB CTXBAL 56% 182164 37506 13453 00 231301378679 146280 257 304 88 -3 +0 -1 +3 +4 0.3
203229 MLB CTXBAL 56% 180162 37506 13453 00 230300373673 143279 257 301 86 -3 +0 -2 +3 +4 0.3
203330 MLB CTXBAL 57% 178160 35505 13453 00 227296365661 138277 257 296 83 -4 +0 -2 +3 +4 0.1
203431 MLB CTXBAL 57% 161145 33505 12413 00 222291355645 132274 257 290 79 -4 +0 -2 +3 +3 -0.0
203532 MLB CTXBAL 63% 156142 30404 11412 00 217285342626 125270 267 282 74 -5 +0 -3 +3 +3 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 12511128 25335040 9031422 00 224294362656 137273 257 298 75 -23 +0 -13 +22 +27 1.4
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 13118021 4716311 00 224293362655 138271 257 298 75 -12 +0 -7 +12 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 46664206 89313412138 315124293 128 212282348630 136264 277 279 75 -47 +0 -24 +46 +56 3.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 12519219 4417313 21 213283350633 137266 277 279 75 -12 +0 -6 +12 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 453 PAwOBA .336 → .285 (−51)K% 21.6% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.63%÷1.000×1.200——25.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.60%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0507.68%
HBP% /PA1.99%—×0.940—×1.0501.96%
Singles /BIP26.06%÷1.000×0.930×0.950×1.05024.17%
Doubles /BIP1.41%÷1.000×0.830×0.950×1.0501.17%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970×0.950×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP6.69%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0504.92%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .336 → .285; ISO .160 → .122; BABIP .284 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 434 PAwOBA .336 → .290 (−46)K% 19.1% → 22.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.12%÷1.044×1.220——22.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.29%÷0.987×0.700—×1.0426.13%
HBP% /PA2.76%—×0.850—×1.0422.45%
Singles /BIP19.59%÷0.957×0.970×0.958×1.04219.82%
Doubles /BIP7.09%÷0.970×0.860×0.958×1.0426.28%
Triples /BIP0.34%÷0.900×0.950×0.958×1.0420.36%
Home runs /BIP5.41%÷1.248×0.780—×1.0423.52%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .336 → .290; ISO .187 → .139; BABIP .283 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 326 PAwOBA .339 → .263 (−77)K% 20.9% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.86%÷0.993×1.310——27.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.43%÷0.947×0.600—×1.0276.78%
HBP% /PA1.84%—×0.770—×1.0271.46%
Singles /BIP15.96%÷1.048×0.870×0.955×1.02712.99%
Doubles /BIP8.45%÷0.980×0.780×0.955×1.0276.59%
Triples /BIP0.94%÷1.150×0.850×0.955×1.0270.68%
Home runs /BIP6.10%÷1.026×0.880—×1.0275.38%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .339 → .263; ISO .217 → .180; BABIP .266 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 69 PAwOBA .327 → .261 (−67)K% 18.8% → 23.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.84%÷0.970×1.220——23.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.90%÷1.028×0.700—×1.0502.07%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP19.23%÷1.008×0.970×0.950×1.05018.46%
Doubles /BIP5.77%÷1.062×0.860×0.950×1.0504.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.135×0.950×0.950×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP7.69%÷1.249×0.780—×1.0505.05%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 127, K 94, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .327 → .261; ISO .231 → .156; BABIP .260 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 311 PAwOBA .260 → .204 (−57)K% 27.7% → 36.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.65%÷0.986×1.310——36.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.72%÷0.982×0.600—×1.0424.91%
HBP% /PA1.29%—×0.770—×1.0421.03%
Singles /BIP18.95%÷1.037×0.870×0.950×1.04215.73%
Doubles /BIP4.21%÷0.980×0.780×0.950×1.0423.32%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.850×0.950×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP4.74%÷0.912×0.880—×1.0424.76%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .260 → .204; ISO .127 → .114; BABIP .237 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 120 PAwOBA .445 → .337 (−108)K% 24.2% → 32.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.17%÷1.008×1.360——32.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷1.065×0.690—×1.03011.12%
HBP% /PA3.33%—×0.780—×1.0302.68%
Singles /BIP22.39%÷1.020×0.920×0.950×1.03019.75%
Doubles /BIP8.96%÷1.101×0.830×0.950×1.0306.60%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.940×0.910×0.950×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP11.94%÷1.020×0.800—×1.0309.64%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 104, 2B 120, 3B 88, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .445 → .337; ISO .312 → .238; BABIP .356 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 246 PAwOBA .261 → .207 (−54)K% 27.6% → 35.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.64%÷1.061×1.360——35.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.69%÷0.979×0.690—×1.0454.19%
HBP% /PA3.66%—×0.780—×1.0452.98%
Singles /BIP16.34%÷0.955×0.920×0.950×1.04515.63%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷0.976×0.830×0.950×1.0454.97%
Triples /BIP2.61%÷1.150×0.910×0.950×1.0452.05%
Home runs /BIP2.61%÷1.128×0.800—×1.0451.94%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 91, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 112, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .261 → .207; ISO .131 → .095; BABIP .252 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Orioles Orange · 28 PAwOBA .240 → .169 (−71)K% 25.0% → 36.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.00%÷1.000×1.440——36.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0224.53%
HBP% /PA7.14%—×0.720—×1.0225.26%
Singles /BIP17.65%÷1.000×0.820—×1.02214.80%
Doubles /BIP5.88%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0224.33%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .240 → .169; ISO .042 → .027; BABIP .235 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .