Sebastian Lopez

P DSL Cubs Red

Age 19 LHP 5'7" / 177 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	2.51	3.00	19.8%	4.5%	—	K 13.5% · BB 5.6% · FIP 4.26
2026	18	ROKDSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	3.38	4.60	30.8%	30.8%	—	K 30.8% · BB 30.8% · FIP 4.40
2027PROJ	19	MLB—	4	4	17	4.22	4.22	21.6%	7.3%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLB—	3	3	13	4.18	4.14	22.2%	7.3%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJames Gonzalez (age 18) · Johan Simon (age 20) · Denny Roman (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%21.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%14.3%

Proj IP17

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	13.5%	5.6%	7.8%	2.9%	2.51	4.26	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	13.5%	5.6%	7.8%	2.9%	2.51	4.26	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	9	8	29	111	22	5	2	89%	3.2	19.8%	4.5%	15.3%	1.8%	2.51	3.00	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.3	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.40	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.3	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.40	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	2	0	3	13	4	4	0	0%	1.3	30.8%	30.8%	0.0%	0.0%	3.38	4.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	—	4	4	17	72	16	5	2	100%	4.2	21.6%	7.3%	14.3%	3.0%	4.22	4.22	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	6	6	27	114	25	8	3	100%	4.5	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.14	+0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	3	3	13	55	12	4	2	100%	4.3	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	4.14	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	13	56	12	4	2	100%	4.4	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	3.76	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	180	60	30	100%	4.6	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.9%	4.18	3.76	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		11	8	31	124	19	10	3	73%	2.8	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	2.6%	2.59	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	51	200	791	121	65	20	73%	2.8	15.3%	8.3%	7.0%	2.6%	2.59	4.27	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sebastian Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	21.6%	7.3%	3.0%	—	4.14	22.2%	14.9%	27	-0.08	—	—	—
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	489	84
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	178	79
Denny Roman L 2018 · 3.24 FIP	19	SW	3.24	25.6%	6.9%	2.6%	.348	5.55	15.7%	-1.0%	21	+2.31	3.24	109	78
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	77
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	76
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	75
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	75
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	75
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	75
Jacob Lopez L 2018 · 3.66 FIP	20	SW	3.66	24.3%	7.9%	2.9%	.302	3.53	30.4%	21.6%	55	-0.13	3.45	546	74
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	72
Josh Dye L 2018 · 4.35 FIP	21	SP-	4.35	15.1%	4.1%	3.7%	.373	3.14	23.0%	14.9%	123	-1.21	2.79	238	72
Rafael Marcano L 2019 · 3.59 FIP	19	SW	3.59	16.2%	8.7%	1.4%	.304	4.32	19.7%	7.0%	117	+0.73	3.38	291	72
Henry Lalane L 2023 · 3.50 FIP	19	SP-	3.50	26.3%	5.7%	3.5%	.298	3.82	21.0%	9.6%	116	+0.32	2.71	227	72
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	71
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	70
Franklin Dacosta L 2019 · 3.78 FIP	19	SP-	3.78	15.9%	8.1%	1.8%	.274	3.72	21.2%	13.5%	118	-0.06	2.83	247	70
Rafael Monsion L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	19	SP-	4.13	16.1%	7.2%	2.7%	.252	5.19	16.2%	6.4%	22	+1.06	4.01	159	70
Luke Little L 2021 · 4.02 FIP	20	SP-	4.02	25.8%	12.5%	2.8%	.200	2.91	28.0%	12.3%	155	-1.11	2.74	277	70
Gabriel Reyes L 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	3.96	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.07	1.74	233	70