Rafael Marcano
P
FCL Twins
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.7%
IP48
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 9 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 13.1% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 3.38 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 9 | 4 | 23 | 101 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.4% | 4.24 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 20 | 8 | 57 | 253 | 72 | 27 | 5 | 20.8% | 13.4% | 2.2% | 3.63 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 17 | 13 | 65 | 295 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 5.15 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 23 | 20 | 93 | 396 | 97 | 42 | 7 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 30 | 1 | 50 | 226 | 50 | 37 | 4 | 17.5% | 15.3% | 0.6% | 4.65 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 20.5% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 4.99 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 28 | 16 | 5 | 20.1% | 11.5% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 47 | 302 | 1332 | 247 | 169 | 26 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 31 | 200 | 881 | 163 | 112 | 17 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Marcano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.49 | 22.3% | 12.0% | 139 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Elvis Araujo L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.16 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.20 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.04 | 2.45 | 120 | 86 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 86 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.85 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .234 | 3.46 | 20.5% | 4.0% | 57 | -1.39 | 3.46 | 145 | 86 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.27 | 22.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | .311 | 4.47 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 53 | +0.20 | 3.49 | 165 | 85 |
| Haylen Green L 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 84 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.92 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.57 | 3.35 | 147 | 83 |
| Hunter Cervenka L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 23.1% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .246 | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 121 | +0.33 | 3.04 | 194 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 83 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.49 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 3.65 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.16 | 3.47 | 160 | 82 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 82 |
| Tyler Holton L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .288 | 3.59 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 258 | -0.71 | 2.93 | 367 | 82 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 82 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Will Gilbert L 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.40 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 141 | 81 |
| Greg Nappo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 81 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 81 |
| Brian Flynn L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.2% | 198 | +0.56 | 3.82 | 277 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.