Rafael Marcano
P
FCL Twins
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
ROK
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102112vR 121
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%22.1%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 9 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 11% | 1.5 | 13.1% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 3.38 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 9 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 11% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 1.35 | 2.58 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 9 | 4 | 23 | 101 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 44% | 2.6 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 4.24 | 3.59 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | 9 | 4 | 23 | 101 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 44% | 2.6 | 23.8% | 6.9% | 16.8% | 1.0% | 4.24 | 2.50 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 8 | 57 | 253 | 72 | 27 | 5 | 40% | 2.9 | 20.8% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 2.2% | 3.63 | 4.25 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 8 | 57 | 253 | 72 | 27 | 5 | 40% | 2.9 | 28.5% | 10.7% | 17.8% | 2.0% | 3.63 | 3.14 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 65 | 295 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 76% | 3.8 | 18.8% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.15 | 4.58 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 13 | 65 | 295 | 73 | 31 | 5 | 76% | 3.8 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 5.15 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 23 | 20 | 93 | 396 | 97 | 42 | 7 | 87% | 4.1 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.75 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 23 | 20 | 93 | 396 | 97 | 42 | 7 | 87% | 4.1 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 1.8% | 3.95 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 50 | 226 | 50 | 37 | 4 | 3% | 1.7 | 17.5% | 15.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 4.65 | 3.84 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 1 | 50 | 226 | 50 | 37 | 4 | 3% | 1.7 | 22.1% | 16.4% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 4.65 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 4.16 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | ROK | FCL Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 31 | 0 | 33 | 138 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.13 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 185 | 84 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 47 | 302 | 1332 | 247 | 169 | 29 | 43% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 4.20 | 4.31 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 31 | 200 | 881 | 164 | 112 | 19 | 43% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 4.20 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Marcano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.50 | 22.2% | 11.9% | 33 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 82 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 79 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 75 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.39 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.2% | .270 | 5.11 | 12.6% | 1.9% | 129 | +1.72 | 3.39 | 261 | 74 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 74 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 73 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 258 | 72 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 72 |
| Adam Scott L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.27 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 4.1% | .317 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -3.6% | 46 | -0.31 | 4.53 | 315 | 71 |
| Ethan Flanagan L 2024 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.23 | 21.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 102 | 69 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 69 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.99 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 3.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 196 | 69 |
| Stu Flesland III L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 211 | 68 |
| Matt Tracy L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.01 | 14.4% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .306 | 4.04 | 14.7% | 5.5% | 208 | +0.03 | 3.24 | 298 | 68 |
| Sean Mellen L 2024 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 68 |
| Sam Long L 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.35 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.21 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 191 | +0.86 | 3.08 | 446 | 68 |
| Hunter Barco L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 68 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .367 | 5.20 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.10 | 4.10 | 118 | 68 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 68 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.11 | 4.48 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |