Rafael Marcano — OGILVIE

Rafael Marcano P FCL Twins

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 128

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%19.9%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%7.1%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	9	1	13	57	11	5	0	11%	1.5	13.1%	11.0%	2.2%	0.0%	1.35	3.38	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	9	1	13	57	11	5	0	11%	1.5	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	0.0%	1.35	2.58	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	9	4	23	101	24	7	1	44%	2.6	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	1.4%	4.24	3.59	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	9	4	23	101	24	7	1	44%	2.6	23.8%	6.9%	16.8%	1.0%	4.24	2.50	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	57	253	72	27	5	40%	2.9	20.8%	13.4%	7.4%	2.2%	3.63	4.24	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	8	57	253	72	27	5	40%	2.9	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	2.0%	3.63	3.14	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	65	295	73	31	5	76%	3.8	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	2.4%	5.15	4.38	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	65	295	73	31	5	76%	3.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	1.7%	5.15	3.29	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	93	396	97	42	7	87%	4.1	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	3.95	4.47	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	93	396	97	42	7	87%	4.1	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	3.95	4.47	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	93	396	97	42	7	87%	4.1	24.5%	10.6%	13.9%	1.8%	3.95	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	0.6%	4.65	3.88	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	0.6%	4.65	3.88	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	22.1%	16.4%	5.8%	1.8%	4.65	4.35	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.16	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.16	—
2025	25	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIN	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	19.9%	12.9%	7.1%	2.8%	4.97	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	42	0	45	188	38	24	5	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.94	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	15	0	16	68	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.94	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	14	9	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	111	25	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	4.93	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		109	47	302	1332	247	169	26	43%	2.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.19	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	31	200	881	164	112	17	43%	2.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.19	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Marcano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.9%	12.9%	2.8%	—	4.94	20.3%	7.7%	45	-0.03	—	—	—
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	79
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Braeden Fausnaught L 2023 · 4.77 FIP	24	SW	4.77	16.9%	16.4%	1.8%	.287	4.60	17.9%	9.7%	179	-0.17	4.43	242	76
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	75
Adam Scott L 2022 · 5.27 FIP	26	SW	5.27	21.1%	13.5%	4.1%	.317	4.70	15.6%	-1.7%	46	-0.57	4.17	315	74
Larson Kindreich L 2023 · 5.29 FIP	24	SW	5.29	21.5%	18.8%	3.0%	.269	4.68	23.0%	9.0%	79	-0.61	4.16	214	73
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	73
Brian Holmes L 2017 · 5.91 FIP	26	SW	5.91	15.5%	11.7%	4.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	205	73
Matt Tracy L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SW	3.96	14.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.306	4.10	14.7%	5.5%	208	+0.14	3.24	298	72
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	72
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	71
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.94	19.6%	8.8%	307	+0.65	3.59	520	70
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	70
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.59	20.9%	12.2%	172	-1.79	2.32	359	69
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	69
Kohl Drake L 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SW	4.81	16.3%	11.9%	2.9%	.391	4.32	21.8%	12.5%	292	-0.49	3.32	327	68
Drake Britton L 2015 · 4.69 FIP	26	SW	4.69	11.1%	9.7%	2.4%	.268	4.79	8.0%	-2.2%	41	+0.10	4.69	125	68
Braulio Lara L 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	16.7%	8.7%	2.1%	.367	5.20	18.9%	3.9%	67	+1.24	3.96	118	68
Kyle Hunter L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SW	4.32	12.5%	11.5%	1.5%	.258	4.49	12.6%	4.6%	144	+0.17	4.32	188	68
Anderson Polanco L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	18.9%	16.3%	2.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	20.1%	12.7%	1.10	4.95
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99