Dylan Brown

P Greenville Drive

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#205ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	22	21	107	3.46	1.95	32.2%	8.3%	—	K 24.6% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.87
2027PROJ	23	MLBBOS	—	—	0	4.03	4.03	24.4%	9.6%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBBOS	7	7	37	3.94	3.90	24.7%	9.0%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBBOS	9	9	55	3.90	3.86	24.9%	8.7%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$2M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsConnelly Early (age 22) · Anthony Veneziano (age 23) · Nick Zwack (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.03

FIP4.03

K%24.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP75

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$20M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	107	444	143	37	4	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	107	444	143	37	4	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	107	444	143	37	4	95%	4.8	32.2%	8.3%	23.9%	0.9%	3.46	1.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	2.5%	4.03	4.03	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	86	364	90	33	9	100%	5.7	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.6%	3.98	3.94	+1.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	347	86	30	9	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.7%	16.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.90	+1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	82	344	86	30	9	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.6%	3.92	3.89	+1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	336	83	29	9	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.7%	3.94	3.94	+1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	320	79	28	9	100%	5.8	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.8%	3.99	4.02	+1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	71	299	73	27	9	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	2.9%	4.09	4.15	+1.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	64	270	65	25	8	100%	5.8	24.1%	9.4%	14.8%	3.1%	4.24	4.33	+0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	63	265	68	24	9	100%	6.3	25.7%	8.9%	16.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.26	+0.8
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	54	230	58	21	8	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.6%	4.39	4.49	+0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	46	196	49	19	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.9%	4.60	4.74	+0.4
2038	34	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	39	165	40	17	7	100%	5.6	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	4.2%	4.85	5.01	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	37	156	39	14	4	100%	5.3	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.5%	3.94	3.90	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	55	232	58	20	6	100%	6.1	24.9%	8.7%	16.1%	2.5%	3.90	3.86	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	65	274	68	24	7	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.85	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	71	25	7	100%	6.2	24.9%	8.7%	16.2%	2.6%	3.90	3.90	+1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	71	25	8	100%	6.2	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.98	+1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	64	270	66	25	8	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.1%	15.4%	2.8%	4.05	4.11	+0.9
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	59	249	60	23	8	100%	5.9	24.1%	9.4%	14.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.29	+0.7
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	58	245	63	22	8	100%	5.8	25.7%	8.9%	16.8%	3.2%	4.20	4.21	+0.8
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	8	8	51	215	54	20	8	100%	6.4	25.3%	9.3%	16.0%	3.5%	4.34	4.44	+0.5
2037	33	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	44	186	46	18	7	100%	6.3	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.8%	4.55	4.69	+0.3
2038	34	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	36	15	6	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	4.0%	4.79	4.95	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	604	2549	632	232	75	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.12	3.78	+11.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	77	25	100%	6.0	24.8%	9.1%	15.7%	3.0%	4.12	3.78	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		22	21	107	444	109	43	5	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	833	205	81	9	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 83 IPFIP 1.91 → 2.82 (+0.91)K% 32.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.99%	—	×0.770	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.150	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.91 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 23 IPFIP 2.01 → 3.04 (+1.03)K% 33.0% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.99%	—	×0.740	24.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.40%	—	×1.180	15.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.01 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	24.4%	9.6%	2.5%	—	3.91	24.8%	16.0%	250	-0.12	—	—	—
Connelly Early L 2024 · 3.33 FIP	22	SP	3.33	24.1%	9.8%	1.9%	.292	3.28	26.0%	17.0%	214	-0.05	2.52	318	86
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	86
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.7%	143	+2.57	3.16	292	85
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	85
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	84
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	83
Andrew Abbott L 2022 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	26.0%	10.9%	2.0%	.336	3.91	23.7%	15.8%	468	+0.55	3.36	752	83
Marc Rzepczynski L 2009 · 4.09 FIP	23	SP	4.09	23.0%	11.5%	2.7%	.268	3.94	20.5%	11.1%	172	-0.15	2.43	491	82
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	82
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	82
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	82
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	82
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	80
Kevin Smith L 2019 · 3.26 FIP	22	SP	3.26	21.2%	9.2%	1.4%	.337	5.78	21.5%	5.1%	131	+2.52	3.26	248	80
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	80
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	80
Tyler Thomas L 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	19.3%	7.3%	1.8%	.255	3.55	24.2%	14.6%	54	+0.16	2.66	279	80
Shane McClanahan L 2019 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	23.3%	10.4%	1.7%	.315	3.07	29.0%	22.6%	290	-0.29	2.95	643	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	68	24.8%	9.1%	1.14	4.13
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Joaquín Benoit ('17)	5.3	71	23.5%	9.7%	1.09	3.83
Doug Bair ('76-'90, 7 WAR*)	4.5	76	25.2%*	10.4%*	1.22*	4.12*
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12