Dylan Brown
P
Greenville Drive
Age 22
LHP
6'5" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 33 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%23.5%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP33
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 14 | 13 | 67 | 283 | 92 | 30 | 2 | 93% | 4.8 | 24.7% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 3.51 | 3.06 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 100 | 424 | 125 | 43 | 6 | — | — | 29.5% | 10.2% | 19.3% | 1.4% | 3.77 | 3.47 | +2.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.5% | 9.4% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 146 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.07 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 31 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.2% | 8.5% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 16.3% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 28 | 28 | 166 | 700 | 175 | 60 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 3.69 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 72 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 16.3% | 2.9% | 4.09 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 14 | 13 | 67 | 283 | 70 | 35 | 3 | 93% | 4.8 | 24.7% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 3.51 | 3.06 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 849 | 210 | 105 | 8 | 93% | 4.8 | 24.7% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 3.51 | 3.06 | +5.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.08 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 106 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Austin Emener L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.86 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | .306 | 5.42 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 49 | +0.56 | 4.86 | 109 | 82 |
| Austin Warner L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.37 | 3.88 | 491 | 82 |
| Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.54 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .339 | 3.10 | 19.0% | 12.8% | 156 | -0.44 | 2.79 | 219 | 81 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 81 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 80 |
| Andre Davis L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.14 | 19.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | .320 | 5.00 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 98 | +0.86 | 4.14 | 154 | 80 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 79 |
| Hogan Harris L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.73 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 1.9% | .235 | 3.64 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.09 | 3.14 | 473 | 78 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 77 |
| Kash Mayfield L 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.36 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 109 | 76 |
| Hunter Barco L 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.51 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.79 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 150 | +0.28 | 3.51 | 212 | 76 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2028 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.71 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% | .298 | 4.64 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.07 | 3.39 | 300 | 76 |
| Noah Schultz L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.49 | 24.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 264 | 76 |
| Jacob Latz L 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.28 | 23.0% | 12.6% | 0.9% | .222 | 5.11 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 149 | +1.83 | 2.43 | 453 | 75 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 75 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.21 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.81 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.60 | 3.21 | 372 | 75 |
| Drew Parrish L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 75 |
| Cole Ragans L 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.15 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.38 | 26.8% | 17.4% | 445 | -1.77 | 2.46 | 623 | 74 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.18 | 2.93 | 431 | 74 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 35 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 4.12 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |