Dylan Brown — OGILVIE

Dylan Brown P Greenville Drive

Age 22 LHP 6'5" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%23.9%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$43M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	21	107	444	143	37	4	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	22	21	107	444	143	37	4	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	BOS	5	5	23	97	32	13	0	100%	4.7	33.0%	13.4%	19.6%	0.0%	2.31	2.01	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	BOS	17	16	83	347	111	24	4	94%	4.9	32.0%	6.9%	25.1%	1.2%	3.78	1.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	108	458	112	41	13	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.9%	4.17	4.11	+1.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	BOS	20	20	111	469	116	40	13	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.08	4.02	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	475	119	40	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.3%	16.7%	2.8%	4.02	3.98	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	112	475	120	39	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	2.8%	3.99	3.96	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	111	468	118	39	14	100%	6.2	25.2%	8.3%	16.8%	2.9%	4.00	4.00	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	108	454	114	39	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	3.0%	4.05	4.08	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	103	434	108	38	14	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.1%	4.15	4.21	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	96	407	100	37	14	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.30	4.39	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	90	380	91	36	14	100%	6.0	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.6%	4.48	4.59	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	BOS	14	14	83	351	83	34	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.8%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	76	322	81	30	13	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	4.1%	4.75	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	69	293	72	29	13	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.9%	14.6%	4.4%	4.94	5.07	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	54	228	56	20	6	100%	5.4	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.13	4.07	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	78	329	82	28	9	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.5%	16.3%	2.8%	4.04	3.98	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	91	384	96	32	11	100%	5.7	25.1%	8.3%	16.7%	2.8%	3.98	3.94	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	98	414	104	34	11	100%	6.1	25.2%	8.3%	16.9%	2.8%	3.95	3.92	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	BOS	17	17	100	422	106	35	12	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.3%	16.8%	2.8%	3.96	3.96	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	99	418	105	35	12	100%	6.2	25.1%	8.5%	16.6%	2.9%	4.01	4.04	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	96	405	101	35	12	100%	6.0	24.8%	8.7%	16.1%	3.1%	4.11	4.17	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	BOS	15	15	90	380	93	34	12	100%	6.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.4%	3.3%	4.25	4.34	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	BOS	14	14	86	363	87	34	13	100%	6.1	24.1%	9.4%	14.7%	3.5%	4.43	4.54	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	BOS	13	13	79	334	79	33	12	100%	6.1	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.7%	4.63	4.77	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	72	304	76	29	12	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	4.0%	4.69	4.74	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	63	266	65	26	11	100%	6.3	24.6%	9.9%	14.6%	4.3%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	170	1006	4246	1050	376	135	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.88	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	209	75	27	100%	5.9	24.7%	8.9%	15.9%	3.2%	4.22	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		22	21	107	444	109	43	5	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	833	205	81	9	95%	4.8	24.6%	9.7%	14.9%	1.1%	3.46	2.87	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	23.9%	9.5%	2.9%	—	4.04	24.8%	16.2%	332	-0.21	—	—	—
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	80
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	79
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	79
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	78
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	78
Evan Shawver L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	18.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.289	4.73	18.0%	4.0%	152	+0.41	3.92	278	77
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	75
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	75
Jacob Latz L 2019 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	23.0%	12.6%	1.1%	.222	5.12	22.8%	10.7%	149	+1.77	2.26	473	75
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	74
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	73
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	72
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	72
Moises Brito L 2023 · 3.16 FIP	21	SP	3.16	22.9%	8.7%	1.6%	.250	7.76	18.0%	-2.5%	21	+4.60	2.53	106	71
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	71
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	71
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	71
Sean Manaea L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	23.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.345	4.05	19.4%	13.2%	482	+0.77	3.28	1,494	71
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	92	24.7%	8.9%	1.25	4.25
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17