Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 16 | 6 | 41 | 166 | 46 | 19 | 1 | 38% | 2.6 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 2.41 | 3.76 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 16 | 6 | 41 | 166 | 46 | 19 | 1 | 38% | 2.6 | 27.7% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 0.6% | 2.41 | 2.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Giants | 12 | 11 | 43 | 180 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 92% | 3.6 | 20.4% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 2.3% | 4.57 | 3.63 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 22 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 5.09 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | SF | — | — | 70 | 293 | 76 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 26.1% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 2.1% | 4.77 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SF | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.47 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 174 | 101 | 29 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 17 | 84 | 346 | 68 | 38 | 6 | 61% | 3.0 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 3.69 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 40 | 200 | 821 | 161 | 89 | 13 | 61% | 3.0 | 19.7% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Leandro Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 19.9% | 13.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.85 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 28 | -0.24 | — | — | — |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 81 |
| Carlos Meza L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.06 | 15.5% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .325 | 4.67 | 20.6% | 4.4% | 138 | -0.39 | 3.72 | 229 | 80 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.18 | 3.82 | 396 | 80 |
| Bailey Horn L 2029 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 80 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 80 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 79 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 78 |
| Jordan Woods L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 78 |
| Steven Pérez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.56 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 5.01 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 116 | +0.45 | 3.80 | 329 | 77 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.28 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.86 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.58 | 4.28 | 128 | 77 |
| Spencer Giesting L 2027 · 5.67 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.67 | 20.8% | 16.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 4.35 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 394 | -1.32 | 3.48 | 433 | 76 |
| Michael Kennedy L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.23 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 2.3% | .311 | 5.21 | 17.0% | 6.1% | 60 | +0.98 | 3.54 | 237 | 76 |
| Gabriel Noguera L 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.41 | 15.6% | 15.0% | 1.3% | .231 | 5.34 | 14.2% | 2.1% | 95 | +0.93 | 4.41 | 174 | 76 |
| Francisco Morao L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.02 | 21.8% | 17.2% | 1.1% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 131 | 76 |
| Erik Rivera L 2029 · 5.95 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.95 | 19.0% | 14.6% | 4.8% | .255 | 4.86 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 87 | -1.09 | 4.69 | 122 | 75 |
| Nate Peterson L 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 75 |
| Isaias Uribe L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.19 | 13.5% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .319 | 3.76 | 16.6% | 0.3% | 13 | -0.43 | 2.98 | 123 | 75 |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.84 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.18 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.66 | 3.78 | 252 | 75 |
| Ryan Lawlor L 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.17 | 14.8% | 13.0% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.17 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 107 | -1.00 | 2.24 | 201 | 74 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 1.11 | 5.00 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |