Leandro Rodriguez

P ACL Giants

Age 21 LHP 5'11" / 212 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#853ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	16	6	41	2.41	2.56	27.7%	11.4%	—	K 18.8% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.77
2026	20	MIX2 levels	20	18	76	4.24	2.69	27.4%	8.2%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.91
2027PROJ	21	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.87	4.87	19.7%	11.7%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBSF	4	4	21	4.57	4.49	21.1%	10.8%	0.2
2029PROJ57% MLB	23	MLBSF	6	6	34	4.43	4.34	22.0%	10.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 2.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsAvery Short (age 21) · Rylan Kaufman (age 22) · Jordan Woods (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%19.7%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%8.0%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	0.8%	2.41	3.77	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	0.8%	2.41	3.77	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	0.6%	2.41	2.56	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	76	317	87	26	5	90%	3.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.24	3.91	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	18	76	317	87	26	5	90%	3.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.24	3.91	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	18	76	317	87	26	5	90%	3.8	27.4%	8.2%	19.2%	1.6%	4.24	2.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	2.9%	4.87	4.87	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	60	251	53	27	7	100%	5.0	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.8%	4.69	4.61	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	60	251	55	26	7	100%	5.4	22.0%	10.3%	11.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.45	+0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	60	251	57	25	7	100%	5.4	22.6%	10.0%	12.7%	2.8%	4.42	4.35	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	55	233	54	23	6	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	2.8%	4.34	4.29	+0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	56	235	54	23	6	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.30	4.27	+0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	54	229	53	23	6	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.30	4.31	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	52	218	50	22	6	100%	5.7	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.39	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	201	46	21	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	43	182	41	19	6	100%	6.2	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.3%	4.61	4.70	+0.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	SF	6	6	38	162	36	18	6	100%	6.4	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.5%	4.79	4.90	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	21	89	19	10	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	10.8%	10.3%	2.6%	4.57	4.49	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	34	144	32	15	4	100%	5.7	22.0%	10.3%	11.7%	2.6%	4.43	4.34	+0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	41	173	39	17	4	100%	5.9	22.6%	10.0%	12.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.24	+0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	43	182	42	18	5	100%	6.1	23.0%	9.8%	13.2%	2.5%	4.23	4.18	+0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	46	194	45	19	5	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.5%	4.19	4.16	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	47	198	46	20	5	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.6%	4.18	4.19	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	46	194	45	19	5	100%	5.8	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	2.7%	4.24	4.27	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	43	182	41	19	5	100%	6.1	22.8%	10.2%	12.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.39	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	39	165	37	17	5	100%	6.5	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.48	4.57	+0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	35	148	33	16	5	100%	5.8	22.1%	10.9%	11.2%	3.2%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	395	1669	378	169	45	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.34	3.96	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	86	23	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.1%	12.5%	2.7%	4.34	3.96	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		36	24	117	483	92	55	8	67%	3.3	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	1.7%	3.61	3.86	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	41	200	823	157	94	14	67%	3.3	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	1.7%	3.61	3.86	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Giants · 47 IPFIP 2.14 → 3.47 (+1.33)K% 30.1% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.05%	—	×0.680	20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.70%	—	×1.250	7.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.000	×1.400	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.14 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ASan Jose Giants · 29 IPFIP 3.54 → 4.60 (+1.05)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.39%	—	×0.740	17.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×1.180	14.27%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.54 → 4.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Giants Black · 41 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.77 (+1.23)K% 27.7% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.71%	—	×0.680	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.45%	—	×1.250	14.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.60%	÷1.022	×1.400	0.82%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leandro Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.47	21.9%	11.6%	178	-0.40	—	—	—
Avery Short L 2022 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP-	4.82	20.1%	11.4%	3.6%	.346	4.72	15.0%	6.4%	271	-0.10	4.20	485	89
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	84
Jordan Woods L 2024 · 4.51 FIP	20	SP	4.51	20.5%	10.3%	3.3%	.329	4.18	20.5%	8.3%	139	-0.33	3.92	170	84
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	84
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	83
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	83
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	82
Develson Aria L 2022 · 4.32 FIP	21	SP-	4.32	19.9%	12.2%	2.5%	.346	6.47	16.7%	-11.9%	47	+2.15	4.32	137	81
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	81
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	80
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	80
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	79
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	79
Luis Moncada L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	20	SP-	3.81	19.2%	12.0%	1.5%	.278	3.87	17.6%	5.7%	68	+0.06	3.81	296	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	79
Packy Naughton L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP	4.45	17.0%	9.9%	2.8%	.323	3.62	15.9%	10.0%	311	-0.83	3.04	504	78
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	78
Antonio Bastardo L 2009 · 4.73 FIP	23	SP	4.73	17.9%	8.5%	3.8%	.297	3.04	33.0%	22.1%	129	-1.69	2.47	404	78
Dallas Braden L 2007 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP-	4.14	16.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.337	3.89	14.1%	7.8%	401	-0.25	3.64	491	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	52	22.3%	10.3%	1.12	4.50
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*