Leandro Rodriguez

Leandro Rodriguez P ACL Giants

Age 20 LHP 5'11" / 212 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%19.9%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	0.8%	2.41	3.77	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	18.8%	14.3%	4.5%	0.8%	2.41	3.77	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	16	6	41	166	46	19	1	38%	2.6	27.7%	11.4%	16.3%	0.6%	2.41	2.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	20	18	76	317	87	26	5	90%	3.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.24	3.91	—
YTD	20	A MLE	San Jose Giants	20	18	76	317	87	26	5	90%	3.8	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	2.1%	4.24	3.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SF	13	11	47	193	58	11	3	85%	3.6	30.1%	5.7%	24.4%	1.6%	4.18	2.14	—
2026	20	A RAW	SF	7	7	29	124	29	15	2	100%	4.1	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	1.6%	4.34	3.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	78	331	68	45	9	100%	4.9	20.6%	13.6%	7.0%	2.9%	5.11	5.03	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	82	348	76	43	10	100%	5.2	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	2.8%	4.87	4.74	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	86	361	81	41	10	100%	5.3	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.8%	4.66	4.54	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	88	370	85	40	10	100%	5.5	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.7%	4.51	4.42	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	89	375	88	40	10	100%	5.9	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	2.7%	4.41	4.34	+0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	89	375	88	39	10	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.7%	4.35	4.32	+0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	87	369	87	39	10	100%	5.8	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.8%	4.35	4.36	+0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	85	358	84	38	10	100%	6.1	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.40	4.44	+0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	81	342	79	38	10	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.57	+0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	76	321	80	34	10	100%	5.9	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.48	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	71	300	73	32	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.8%	13.6%	3.5%	4.60	4.68	+0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	277	67	31	10	100%	6.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.78	4.91	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	39	165	34	22	4	100%	4.9	20.6%	13.6%	7.0%	2.6%	4.99	4.91	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	60	253	55	31	7	100%	5.0	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	2.6%	4.75	4.62	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	72	304	68	35	8	100%	5.5	22.5%	11.4%	11.1%	2.6%	4.55	4.43	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	78	329	76	36	8	100%	5.6	23.0%	10.8%	12.2%	2.5%	4.40	4.31	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	80	36	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	10.6%	12.8%	2.5%	4.30	4.23	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	83	37	9	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.5%	4.24	4.21	+0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	83	37	9	100%	5.9	23.6%	10.6%	13.0%	2.6%	4.24	4.25	+0.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	80	37	9	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.8%	12.7%	2.7%	4.28	4.32	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	SF	13	13	77	325	75	36	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.8%	4.38	4.45	+0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	72	304	76	32	9	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	3.0%	4.36	4.35	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	67	283	69	31	9	100%	6.1	24.5%	10.8%	13.6%	3.2%	4.46	4.54	+0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	62	262	63	29	9	100%	6.2	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		149	149	856	3613	843	399	99	100%	5.7	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.03	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	197	93	23	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		36	24	117	483	92	55	8	67%	3.3	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	1.7%	3.61	3.86	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	41	200	823	157	94	14	67%	3.3	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	1.7%	3.61	3.86	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leandro Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	19.9%	15.3%	2.9%	—	4.76	21.6%	9.2%	246	-0.57	—	—	—
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	82
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	79
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	79
Gabriel Noguera L 2017 · 4.41 FIP	21	SP-	4.41	15.6%	15.0%	1.3%	.231	5.01	14.2%	2.1%	95	+0.60	4.41	174	78
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	78
Raúl Alcantara L 2021 · 4.31 FIP	20	SP-	4.31	19.6%	12.8%	2.3%	.295	4.50	19.0%	4.2%	229	+0.19	3.82	396	78
Ryan Lawlor L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP	4.17	14.8%	13.0%	1.2%	.286	3.24	20.1%	8.1%	107	-0.93	2.24	201	77
Armando Vasquez L 2022 · 4.22 FIP	21	SP-	4.22	14.7%	14.7%	0.9%	.318	5.52	21.2%	3.2%	94	+1.30	4.22	131	77
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	76
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	76
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	76
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	75
Frankeli Arias L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	20	SP-	4.27	15.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.318	5.53	16.1%	3.0%	196	+1.26	3.87	298	75
Larson Kindreich L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP-	4.27	24.3%	18.6%	1.6%	.275	4.96	22.3%	6.1%	149	+0.69	4.16	214	74
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	74
Ramon Perez L 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.315	4.33	23.0%	6.2%	92	+0.18	3.08	199	74
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	74
Dennis Herrera L 2019 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	14.8%	16.0%	2.0%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	124	74
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	74
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	77	23.1%	11.3%	1.14	4.60
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04