Abner Meza

P DSL Mets Orange

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#852ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	12	8	39	2.79	2.22	19.6%	6.1%	—	K 13.3% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.94
2026	19	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	11	11	50	1.81	1.95	24.9%	5.0%	—	K 16.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.84
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	—	—	0	4.27	4.27	19.4%	7.0%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	4	4	21	4.21	4.17	20.4%	7.0%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLB—	6	6	33	4.10	4.01	21.6%	6.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsLogan Gragg (age 20) · Andrew Hoffmann (age 21) · José López (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%19.4%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	13.3%	7.7%	5.7%	0.0%	2.79	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	13.3%	7.7%	5.7%	0.0%	2.79	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	19.6%	6.1%	13.5%	0.0%	2.79	2.22	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	0.7%	1.81	2.84	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	0.7%	1.81	2.84	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	24.9%	5.0%	19.9%	0.5%	1.81	1.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	7.0%	12.4%	2.8%	4.27	4.27	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	9	9	42	179	36	13	5	100%	4.7	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.17	+0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	9	9	45	189	41	13	5	100%	5.0	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+0.7
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	9	9	46	193	43	13	5	100%	5.1	22.4%	6.6%	15.8%	2.7%	3.99	3.90	+0.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	8	8	46	193	44	12	5	100%	5.7	23.0%	6.4%	16.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.82	+0.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	8	8	45	189	44	12	5	100%	5.6	23.4%	6.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.82	3.77	+0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	8	8	45	191	45	12	5	100%	5.7	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.7%	3.78	3.75	+0.9
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	7	7	44	187	44	12	5	100%	6.3	23.5%	6.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.78	3.78	+0.9
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	4	4	21	89	18	6	2	100%	5.2	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.17	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	6	6	33	139	30	9	4	100%	5.5	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.7%	4.10	4.01	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	7	7	39	165	37	11	4	100%	5.6	22.4%	6.6%	15.8%	2.7%	3.99	3.90	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	7	7	41	173	40	11	5	100%	5.9	23.0%	6.4%	16.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.82	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	7	7	41	173	40	11	5	100%	5.9	23.4%	6.3%	17.0%	2.7%	3.82	3.77	+0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	7	7	42	177	42	11	5	100%	6.0	23.6%	6.3%	17.3%	2.7%	3.78	3.75	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	7	7	42	177	42	11	5	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.78	3.78	+0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	46	258	1090	248	71	29	100%	5.6	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	2.7%	3.91	3.48	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	192	55	22	100%	5.6	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	2.7%	3.91	3.48	+4.7
Career	—	MLE		23	19	88	364	56	25	1	83%	3.8	15.3%	6.9%	8.5%	0.4%	2.24	2.89	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	824	126	57	3	83%	3.8	15.3%	6.9%	8.5%	0.4%	2.24	2.89	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKDSL Mets Orange · 50 IPFIP 1.90 → 2.84 (+0.94)K% 24.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.88%	—	×0.680	16.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.98%	—	×1.250	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.70%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.90 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Mets Orange · 39 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.94 (+0.72)K% 19.6% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.63%	—	×0.680	13.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.13%	—	×1.250	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.873	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abner Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	19.4%	7.0%	2.8%	—	4.02	21.5%	14.7%	133	-0.25	—	—	—
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	84
Andrew Hoffmann R 2021 · 3.17 FIP	21	SP	3.17	23.6%	8.1%	1.9%	.275	4.89	18.9%	9.1%	311	+1.72	3.17	422	83
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	83
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	82
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	82
Enniel Cortez R 2024 · 4.66 FIP	18	SP	4.66	17.0%	7.3%	3.8%	.366	6.43	13.5%	-2.6%	37	+1.77	2.38	131	82
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	81
Chris Clark R 2023 · 3.29 FIP	21	SP	3.29	18.9%	6.9%	1.7%	.362	4.79	18.2%	7.5%	333	+1.50	3.29	353	81
Melvin Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	18	SP-	3.51	17.3%	7.9%	1.6%	.291	5.44	15.4%	-0.5%	89	+1.93	3.51	135	81
Cody Stashak R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	21	SP	4.07	19.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.304	3.55	17.1%	9.8%	261	-0.52	1.99	467	81
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	81
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	81
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	81
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	80
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.5%	6.8%	3.7%	.221	5.80	13.9%	0.2%	139	+1.11	4.69	247	80
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	80
Yordi Rosario R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	19	SP-	3.53	21.3%	6.7%	2.5%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.25	163	80
Reudis Diaz R 2024 · 3.13 FIP	18	SP-	3.13	16.1%	5.2%	1.3%	.255	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	44	+0.45	3.13	109	80
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	43	22.3%	6.6%	1.05	3.96
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Donnie Moore ('75-'88, 7 WAR*)	3.3	60	20.7%*	6.6%*	1.00*	3.83*