Abner Meza — OGILVIE

Abner Meza P DSL Mets Orange

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	13.3%	7.7%	5.7%	0.0%	2.79	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	13.3%	7.7%	5.7%	0.0%	2.79	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	12	8	39	163	32	10	0	67%	3.2	19.6%	6.1%	13.5%	0.0%	2.79	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	0.7%	1.81	2.84	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	0.7%	1.81	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	50	201	50	10	1	100%	4.5	24.9%	5.0%	19.9%	0.5%	1.81	1.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	—	11	11	51	215	44	17	6	100%	4.6	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.31	+0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	11	11	54	226	48	18	6	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.21	+0.4
2029	22	MLB MLE	—	11	11	56	238	53	18	6	100%	5.1	22.1%	7.5%	14.6%	2.7%	4.14	4.06	+0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	—	11	11	58	247	56	18	7	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.2%	15.7%	2.7%	4.02	3.94	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	—	11	11	60	253	59	18	7	100%	5.4	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	2.7%	3.92	3.85	+0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	—	10	10	61	256	61	18	7	100%	6.1	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	2.6%	3.84	3.79	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	—	10	10	61	256	61	18	7	100%	6.1	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	2.6%	3.80	3.77	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	—	10	10	60	252	61	17	7	100%	6.0	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	2.7%	3.80	3.81	+0.8
2027	20	MLB CTX	—	5	5	25	106	22	8	3	100%	5.0	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.8%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	8	8	39	165	35	13	5	100%	4.9	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.26	4.21	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	—	9	9	47	198	44	15	5	100%	5.2	22.1%	7.5%	14.6%	2.7%	4.14	4.06	+0.5
2030	23	MLB CTX	—	10	10	52	220	50	16	6	100%	5.2	22.9%	7.2%	15.7%	2.7%	4.02	3.94	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	—	10	10	55	232	54	16	6	100%	5.5	23.4%	7.0%	16.4%	2.7%	3.92	3.85	+0.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	—	10	10	57	241	57	17	6	100%	5.7	23.8%	6.9%	16.9%	2.6%	3.84	3.79	+0.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	—	10	10	58	245	59	17	6	100%	5.8	24.0%	6.8%	17.2%	2.6%	3.80	3.77	+0.8
2034	27	MLB CTX	—	10	10	57	241	58	17	6	100%	5.7	24.0%	6.9%	17.1%	2.7%	3.80	3.81	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	71	390	1648	379	118	44	100%	5.5	23.0%	7.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.54	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	194	60	23	100%	5.5	23.0%	7.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.98	3.54	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		23	19	88	364	56	25	1	83%	3.8	15.3%	6.9%	8.5%	0.4%	2.24	2.89	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	824	126	57	3	83%	3.8	15.3%	6.9%	8.5%	0.4%	2.24	2.89	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abner Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	19.4%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.19	21.3%	13.5%	161	-0.24	—	—	—
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	89
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	88
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	88
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	87
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	86
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	84
Yorman Gómez R 2022 · 3.36 FIP	19	SP	3.36	18.7%	6.2%	1.9%	.311	3.88	18.0%	6.7%	346	+0.52	3.18	490	83
Quinn Priester R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	18	SP	3.26	18.0%	8.9%	1.0%	.304	3.67	18.9%	9.3%	173	+0.41	3.22	651	83
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	82
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	82
Po-Yu Chen R 2021 · 3.26 FIP	19	SP	3.26	17.6%	8.1%	1.1%	.265	4.64	16.7%	7.3%	352	+1.38	3.26	536	81
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	81
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	81
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	54	22.6%	7.3%	1.05	4.03
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43