Pedro Garcia — OGILVIE

Pedro Garcia P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%16.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%3.7%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	13	10	51	202	46	11	5	77%	3.9	15.5%	6.8%	8.7%	3.7%	3.16	4.69	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	13	10	51	202	46	11	5	77%	3.9	22.8%	5.4%	17.3%	2.5%	3.16	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	38	176	39	18	8	67%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	7.2%	5.40	7.37	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	8	38	176	39	18	8	67%	3.2	14.9%	12.6%	2.3%	7.2%	5.40	7.37	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	8	38	176	39	18	8	67%	3.2	22.2%	10.2%	11.9%	4.5%	5.40	5.19	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	59	276	64	38	4	56%	3.3	16.1%	16.8%	-0.7%	2.1%	5.34	5.04	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	59	276	64	38	4	56%	3.3	16.1%	16.8%	-0.7%	2.1%	5.34	5.04	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	59	276	64	38	4	56%	3.3	23.2%	13.8%	9.4%	1.4%	5.34	3.74	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	44	176	26	15	4	0%	1.9	10.2%	10.5%	-0.2%	3.6%	2.86	5.52	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	44	176	26	15	4	0%	1.9	10.2%	10.5%	-0.2%	3.6%	2.86	5.52	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	44	176	26	15	4	0%	1.9	14.8%	8.5%	6.3%	2.3%	2.86	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	36	0	58	287	54	44	8	0%	1.6	13.9%	17.9%	-3.9%	3.4%	6.21	6.03	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	36	0	58	287	54	44	8	0%	1.6	13.9%	17.9%	-3.9%	3.4%	6.21	6.03	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	DET	2	0	2	16	3	3	1	0%	0.8	18.8%	18.8%	0.0%	6.2%	21.60	7.32	—
2026	24	A RAW	DET	34	0	56	271	51	41	7	0%	1.7	18.8%	15.1%	3.7%	2.6%	5.75	4.84	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	243	44	28	7	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	3.0%	5.12	5.04	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	243	47	27	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.98	4.93	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	DET	24	0	25	106	19	12	3	0%	1.0	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	3.0%	5.12	5.04	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	DET	36	0	38	160	31	18	5	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.98	4.93	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	265	50	30	8	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.0%	5.03	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	26	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.0%	5.03	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		102	28	251	1117	160	152	42	27%	2.5	14.3%	13.6%	0.7%	3.8%	4.67	5.67	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	22	200	891	128	121	33	27%	2.5	14.3%	13.6%	0.7%	3.8%	4.67	5.67	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	16.4%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.98	18.7%	7.3%	115	-0.37	—	—	—
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	83
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	82
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	82
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	82
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	82
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	81
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	81
J.B. Olson R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	24	SU	4.98	15.0%	11.1%	3.2%	.328	4.29	15.1%	7.5%	109	-0.69	3.90	212	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	81
Stephen Perakslis R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	14.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.254	3.99	16.9%	9.9%	190	-0.55	3.07	211	81
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	81
Matthew Gorst R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	24	SU	4.66	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	199	81
Bubba Hall R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	15.2%	10.9%	2.0%	.237	3.19	20.2%	13.9%	68	-1.11	3.19	101	81
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.2%	11.7%	1.15	5.11
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86