Luis Tovar — OGILVIE

Luis Tovar3B DSL LAD Mega

Age 18 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION95 act + 63 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .253 / .303

PA63

HR1

K%33

BB%6

BABIP295

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	29	28	6	0	0	0	1	7	0	2	0	214	241	214	456		286	24	3	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	29	28	8	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	0	286	310	286	596		348	17	3	274	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	LAD	—	95	88	12	1	1	1	7	42	0	1	0	136	200	205	405	68	244	44	7	163	-17	-13	+0	+0	+0	+3	-1.0
YTD	18	ROK	LAD	—	95	84	16	1	1	1	11	29	0	1	0	190	284	262	546	71	278	31	12	257	55	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
ROS	18	ROK	LAD	0%	63	59	12	1	1	1	4	21	0	1	0	202	253	303	556	101	283	33	6	232	36	-5	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
ROS	18	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		279	—	—	226	31	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	LAD	—	95	89	12	1	1	1	7	42	0	1	0	135	200	202	402	67	239	44	7	163	-17	-13	+0	+0	+0	+3	-1.0
TOT	18	ROK	LAD	—	158	147	24	2	2	2	11	63	0	2	0	163	221	244	465	81	267	40	7	191	4	-17	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	LAD	34%	135	124	24	3	1	2	9	43	1	2	0	194	254	282	536	89	283	32	7	243	44	-8	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.4
2028	20	MLB	LAD	48%	286	261	52	7	2	4	20	90	3	4	1	199	264	287	551	88	286	31	7	254	52	-15	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.6
2027	19	MLB	LAD	34%	46	43	8	1	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	186	239	279	518	93	280	33	7	235	38	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	LAD	48%	139	127	25	3	1	2	10	44	1	2	1	197	261	283	544	87	282	32	7	244	45	-9	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	185	171	33	4	1	3	13	59	1	3	1	193	255	281	536	88	273	32	7	242	44	-12	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	601	117	14	4	11	46	207	4	11	4	195	259	286	545	92	274	32	7	242	44	-41	+1	+0	+2	+18	-2.1
Career	—			—	513	472	94	11	4	7	34	161	4	9	1	199	259	284	542	85	284	31	7	245	45	-32	+1	+0	+2	+15	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	119	14	5	9	43	204	5	11	1	199	259	284	543	85	284	31	7	245	45	-40	+2	+0	+2	+18	-1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	29	28	8	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	0	286	310	286	596		348	17	3	274	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	229	3	3	201	260	286	+1	+1	-0.5	-0.3
	/162	664	9	10	201	260	286	+2.4	+2.9	-1.5	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Tovar (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	163/221/244	81	267	2	2	40%	7%	4	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mariel Bautista 2016 · A	18	41→34	38→45	50	40	197/258/282	85	286	5	8	31%	6%	48	-1.9	226/275/318	92	287	6	14	22%	5%	63	-0.8	239/283/340	101	289	8	18	19%	4%	70	-0.1
✕Juan Batista 2019 · A	18	36	36→40	45→55	38	173/231/237	64	263	3	9	34%	6%	24	-3.5	193/262/272	79	283	4	15	30%	8%	46	-2.0	150/228/219	69	261	2	23	40%	8%	16	-1.4
✕Romer Cuadrado 2016 · A	18	39→37	37→40	44→45	39	186/244/255	69	278	4	10	33%	6%	34	-2.8	198/260/287	89	313	7	8	36%	7%	50	-1.8	201/257/294	93	313	8	5	36%	6%	47	-1.3
✕Ronny Brito 2017 · A	18	39	37→45	47→50	45	183/260/259	77	269	3	9	31%	8%	43	-2.2	190/241/289	99	320	9	7	41%	6%	42	-2.3	158/205/274	116	290	15	3	49%	5%	22	-1.1
✕Wilfredo Lara 2022 · A	18	39	40	47→55	38	190/252/284	94	282	7	8	34%	6%	46	-2.0	182/254/272	90	271	7	12	33%	8%	44	-2.1	174/252/266	92	252	8	14	32%	8%	39	-1.4
✕Rolando Espinosa 2019 · A	18	33	36→40	47→55	36	165/216/225	60	261	3	11	36%	6%	14	-4.2	177/241/251	74	294	4	11	38%	6%	32	-3.0	160/237/255	95	302	11	29	47%	8%	32	-1.4
✕Amador Arias 2019 · A	18	34	39→45	48→50	45	170/242/253	83	225	7	13	27%	7%	34	-2.8	186/256/285	99	277	9	12	34%	7%	48	-1.9	118/203/228	110	217	14	11	50%	8%	10	-1.7
✕Brayan Hernandez 2016 · A	18	39	38→45	46→55	39	189/239/267	78	276	5	10	32%	6%	34	-2.8	205/247/300	95	290	8	14	30%	5%	46	-2.0	203/235/305	102	277	9	20	30%	4%	40	-1.2
✕Simon Juan 2023 · A	18	38	38→45	56→50	38	183/245/263	80	272	5	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	188/242/284	96	295	9	9	37%	6%	41	-2.3	186/239/293	108	289	12	10	38%	6%	40	-1.0
✕Rafael Mejia 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	38	184/237/267	83	263	7	6	32%	5%	34	-2.8	198/237/320	122	278	14	7	33%	4%	49	-1.8	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Alexander Benua 2022 · A	18	36	35→40	54→55	39	170/242/232	61	261	2	13	33%	6%	28	-3.2	190/257/267	77	288	5	16	34%	6%	44	-2.1	181/251/262	81	286	6	17	36%	6%	38	-0.9
✕Neyfy Castillo 2019 · A	18	37→29	36→50	54→55	39	177/242/241	64	278	4	16	36%	6%	30	-3.1	181/246/275	94	298	8	13	39%	7%	41	-2.3	170/240/302	132	292	17	16	45%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Roni Cabrera 2023 · A	18	39	38→45	51→55	38	186/249/260	74	297	5	10	37%	6%	39	-2.5	189/259/297	108	290	10	12	36%	7%	53	-1.5	159/234/278	120	248	12	17	39%	7%	35	-0.8
✕Aneudis Mordán 2022 · A	18	39→29	37→45	49→40	42	181/254/252	71	296	4	7	38%	8%	39	-2.5	181/244/272	91	279	9	6	36%	7%	40	-2.4	163/227/272	109	235	15	4	36%	7%	29	-1.2
✕Omar Meregildo 2016 · A	18	34→33	39→50	46→30	37	164/242/254	90	284	5	5	41%	7%	35	-2.8	179/240/264	85	284	5	5	36%	6%	35	-2.8	172/240/299	127	285	15	1	43%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Ibrahim McKenzie 2012 · A	18	37	38→45	46→45	37	175/265/255	81	283	4	6	36%	6%	46	-2.0	188/251/274	86	278	7	4	33%	5%	43	-2.2	170/226/252	82	244	9	2	33%	3%	24	-1.0
✕Roberto Duncan 2011 · A	18	39	34→40	51→45	43	182/259/233	51	275	2	7	32%	8%	37	-2.7	182/279/254	72	269	5	7	31%	9%	52	-1.6	148/268/223	75	216	7	7	31%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Estarlyn Morales 2011 · A	18	39	38→40	47→50	40	185/258/264	79	296	5	8	37%	8%	43	-2.2	192/254/267	75	241	5	8	21%	7%	42	-2.3	199/257/294	95	251	8	13	23%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Amado Nunez 2016 · A	18	38	35→45	50→45	37	182/232/242	60	278	3	6	34%	5%	26	-3.4	201/236/272	71	300	4	7	33%	4%	34	-2.8	208/239/291	83	312	5	5	34%	4%	37	-1.0
✕Israel Mota 2014 · A	18	39	37→45	47→50	45	186/266/260	74	272	4	7	31%	8%	46	-2.0	197/247/292	95	286	8	9	32%	5%	45	-2.1	192/240/304	112	265	12	11	31%	5%	43	-0.7