Wilfredo Lara — OGILVIE

Wilfredo Lara3B Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION218 act + 145 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .263 / .278

PA145

HR2

SB5

K%31

BB%10

BABIP252

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	—	110	100	14	4	1	1	6	37	4	3	2	140	218	230	448	90	210	34	5	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	—	110	96	20	6	1	2	10	26	4	3	2	208	309	354	663	146	265	24	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	157	143	21	4	2	1	10	53	4	8	3	147	223	224	447	77	225	34	6	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	157	136	32	7	3	1	17	34	4	8	3	235	338	353	691	118	307	22	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	363	62	14	2	7	39	142	5	17	6	171	260	278	539	107	255	35	10	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	352	93	18	3	14	50	89	5	17	6	264	364	452	815	188	315	22	12	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	386	75	11	3	6	31	123	7	15	4	194	267	285	551	91	265	29	7	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	373	94	13	5	7	44	94	7	15	4	252	342	370	712	118	316	22	10	322	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	287	254	36	9	4	2	24	89	3	17	8	142	224	232	456	91	202	31	8	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	287	246	45	11	5	3	32	62	3	17	8	183	285	305	590	122	226	22	11	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	MIA	—	218	192	32	8	0	3	24	73	1	12	1	167	263	255	518	89	248	33	11	235	38	-15	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.6
YTD	22	A+	MIA	—	218	182	39	10	0	4	34	54	1	12	1	214	341	335	676	121	280	25	16	313	98	-1	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.9
ROS	22	A+	MIA	0%	145	129	23	5	1	2	14	45	1	5	1	178	263	278	542	101	244	31	10	242	43	-9	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	MIA	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						240	0	0	233	36	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	MIA	—	219	193	32	8	0	3	24	73	1	12	1	166	261	254	515	88	246	33	11	235	38	-15	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.6
TOT	22	A+	MIA	—	363	321	55	13	1	5	38	118	2	17	2	171	263	265	527	93	250	32	10	238	40	-25	+3	+0	+1	+10	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	MIA	35%	362	322	58	12	2	6	34	107	3	11	3	180	265	286	550	106	249	30	9	257	55	-19	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.6
2028	24	MLB	MIA	46%	426	379	73	15	2	9	40	122	4	13	3	193	277	314	591	121	253	29	9	266	62	-18	+1	+0	+2	+12	-0.3
2029	25	MLB	MIA	52%	459	408	79	16	2	10	44	129	4	14	3	194	279	316	595	123	256	28	10	272	66	-18	+2	+0	+2	+13	-0.1
2030	26	MLB	MIA	54%	478	425	83	17	2	11	46	134	4	15	3	195	280	322	602	127	256	28	10	274	68	-17	+2	+0	+2	+14	-0.0
2031	27	MLB	MIA	54%	484	430	84	17	2	11	47	136	4	15	3	195	281	321	602	126	256	28	10	274	68	-18	+2	+0	+2	+14	-0.0
2032	28	MLB	MIA	54%	483	429	83	17	2	11	47	136	4	14	3	193	279	319	599	126	255	28	10	273	67	-18	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2
2027	23	MLB	MIA	35%	125	111	20	4	1	2	12	37	1	4	1	180	266	288	554	108	245	30	10	247	47	-7	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.3
2028	24	MLB	MIA	46%	197	174	33	7	1	4	19	56	2	6	1	190	277	310	587	121	249	28	10	256	54	-10	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
2029	25	MLB	MIA	52%	237	210	40	8	1	5	23	67	2	7	2	190	277	310	586	119	251	28	10	261	58	-11	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
2030	26	MLB	MIA	54%	259	230	44	9	1	6	25	72	2	8	2	191	276	317	594	126	252	28	10	264	60	-12	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
2031	27	MLB	MIA	54%	263	234	45	9	1	6	25	74	2	8	2	192	276	316	592	124	252	28	10	264	60	-12	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.3
2032	28	MLB	MIA	54%	262	232	45	9	1	6	26	74	2	8	2	194	281	319	600	125	251	28	10	263	59	-12	+1	-0	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1344	1192	227	46	6	29	130	380	11	41	10	190	276	312	588	122	251	28	10	260	57	-65	+4	-0	+5	+38	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	110	22	3	14	63	184	5	20	5	191	276	312	588	122	252	28	10	260	57	-31	+2	-0	+2	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	4227	3768	691	141	25	77	382	1253	47	147	42	183	267	295	562	112	249	30	9	255	53	-223	+13	-1	+15	+120	-7.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	107	22	4	12	59	193	7	23	6	185	268	299	567	114	251	30	9	255	53	-34	+2	-0	+2	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	—	110	96	20	6	1	2	10	26	4	3	2	208	309	354	663	146	265	24	9	303	90	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.2
2022	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	157	136	32	7	3	1	17	34	4	8	3	235	338	353	691	118	307	22	11	317	101	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.5
2023	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	352	93	18	3	14	50	89	5	17	6	264	364	452	815	188	315	22	12	362	135	+16	+1	—	—	+12	3.0
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	373	94	13	5	7	44	94	7	15	4	252	342	370	712	118	316	22	10	322	105	+2	+1	—	—	+12	1.6
2025	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	268	231	42	10	5	3	30	60	2	15	7	182	281	307	589	126	227	22	11	266	62	-12	+0	—	—	+8	-0.4
2025	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	19	15	3	1	0	0	2	2	1	2	1	200	333	267	600	67	214	11	11	275	69	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,345	28	41	194	277	317	+5	+2	-0.7	-0.3
	/162	664	14	20	194	277	317	+2.4	+0.7	-0.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilfredo Lara (OGILVIE)	22	30	35	55	45	171/263/265	93	250	5	17	32%	10%	40	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Max George 2018 · A	22	37→36	41→45	50→55	44	184/260/281	97	244	8	15	27%	7%	50	-1.8	178/258/271	93	255	8	20	32%	7%	46	-2.0	135/238/252	117	208	13	25	39%	8%	32	-1.5
✕Kenedy Corona 2022 · A	22	43→40	39→45	52→55	39	205/259/290	85	285	6	20	29%	5%	50	-1.8	206/268/333	127	294	13	23	33%	7%	66	-0.6	198/265/322	124	280	13	27	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	38→40	53→60	49	182/289/262	80	287	6	16	35%	11%	58	-1.2	202/293/281	79	297	5	23	30%	10%	63	-0.8	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Charcer Burks 2017 · A	22	39→45	39→40	52→50	42	189/255/275	86	267	5	17	30%	7%	45	-2.1	200/273/295	95	285	8	14	30%	8%	57	-1.2	195/270/282	88	278	8	14	30%	8%	51	-1.4
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→50	53→55	45	178/254/255	77	243	4	12	27%	8%	40	-2.4	208/276/322	114	297	8	11	31%	7%	66	-0.6	179/262/313	134	284	16	16	40%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Anthony Phillips 2012 · A	22	36→46	39→40	50	41	181/240/260	78	242	7	18	28%	6%	34	-2.8	190/256/273	83	263	6	9	28%	7%	45	-2.1	208/273/277	69	284	4	6	26%	7%	50	-1.1
✕Estarlin Martinez 2014 · A	22	42→41	40	52→50	43	208/260/302	94	266	8	14	25%	6%	53	-1.5	225/273/291	66	296	3	12	24%	6%	55	-1.4	234/282/282	48	308	1	11	23%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Juan Montes 2017 · A	22	39	38→30	50→55	43	189/263/266	77	237	6	12	22%	6%	46	-2.0	203/284/273	70	273	5	16	26%	6%	58	-1.2	192/284/244	52	266	4	21	26%	6%	50	-0.5
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	39	38→45	53→50	47	187/270/270	84	274	5	15	31%	9%	51	-1.7	185/255/279	94	336	7	13	43%	8%	46	-2.0	134/194/209	75	291	5	16	52%	6%	-1	-1.8
✕Mariel Bautista 2021 · A	23	40→34	42→45	49→50	38	201/251/299	98	265	10	15	28%	5%	49	-1.8	209/254/332	123	305	13	11	34%	5%	59	-1.1	181/215/331	150	258	17	11	37%	3%	42	-0.5
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	40	49→50	44	178/256/260	82	272	8	14	35%	9%	42	-2.3	211/287/303	92	304	7	12	30%	9%	66	-0.6	219/303/313	94	309	5	13	28%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Malvin Matos 2019 · A	22	43→38	39→45	48→50	44	207/272/295	88	279	6	10	26%	7%	57	-1.2	211/277/333	122	296	14	11	32%	7%	69	-0.4	196/266/321	125	267	17	13	32%	7%	58	-0.9
✕Grae Kessinger 2021 · A	23	43→28	39→45	50	47	209/276/293	84	265	7	12	23%	8%	58	-1.2	188/256/297	109	262	13	15	32%	7%	51	-1.7	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5