Wilfredo Lara — OGILVIE

Wilfredo Lara3B Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION285 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP251

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Mets 2	—	110	96	20	6	1	2	10	26	4	3	2	208	309	354	663	146	265	24	9	303	91	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	18	ROK	FCL Mets	—	157	136	32	7	3	1	17	34	4	8	3	235	338	353	691	118	307	22	11	317	100	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2023	19	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	352	93	18	3	14	50	89	5	17	6	264	364	452	815	188	315	22	12	362	131	+15	+1	—	—	+9	2.6
2024	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	373	94	13	5	7	44	94	7	15	4	252	342	370	712	118	316	22	10	322	104	+2	+1	—	—	+9	1.3
2025	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	268	231	42	10	5	3	30	60	2	15	7	182	281	307	589	126	227	22	11	266	66	-11	+0	—	—	+6	-0.5
2025	21	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	19	15	3	1	0	0	2	2	1	2	1	200	333	267	600	67	214	11	11	275	72	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	—	110	100	14	4	1	1	6	37	4	3	2	140	218	230	448	90	195	34	5	196	19	-11	-0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	157	143	22	4	2	1	10	51	4	8	3	154	229	231	460	77	222	32	6	199	21	-15	+0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2023	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	364	69	15	2	9	38	133	5	17	6	190	275	316	591	126	261	33	9	259	61	-19	+1	—	—	+9	-0.9
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	386	76	10	3	6	31	125	7	15	4	197	269	285	554	88	268	29	7	248	54	-23	+1	—	—	+9	-1.3
2025	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	268	239	33	8	4	2	22	83	2	15	7	138	217	230	447	92	191	31	8	204	24	-24	+0	—	—	+6	-1.9
2025	21	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	19	16	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	1	188	278	250	528	62	202	16	5	262	63	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	—	110	100	14	4	1	1	6	37	4	3	2	140	218	230	448	90	210	34	5	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 2	—	110	96	20	6	1	2	10	26	4	3	2	208	309	354	663	146	265	24	9	303	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	157	143	22	4	2	1	10	51	4	8	3	154	229	231	460	77	231	32	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	FCL Mets	—	157	136	32	7	3	1	17	34	4	8	3	235	338	353	691	118	307	22	11	317	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	364	69	15	2	9	38	133	5	17	6	190	275	316	591	126	268	33	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	352	93	18	3	14	50	89	5	17	6	264	364	452	815	188	315	22	12	362	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	386	76	10	3	6	31	125	7	15	4	197	269	285	554	88	271	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	373	94	13	5	7	44	94	7	15	4	252	342	370	712	118	316	22	10	322	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	287	255	36	9	4	2	23	86	3	17	8	141	221	231	452	90	198	30	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	287	246	45	11	5	3	32	62	3	17	8	183	285	305	590	122	226	22	11	267	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 2	—	110	99	14	4	1	1	6	37	4	3	2	141	218	232	451	91	195	34	5	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	FCL Mets	—	157	142	22	4	2	1	10	51	4	8	3	155	229	232	462	77	222	32	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	363	69	15	2	9	38	133	5	17	6	190	275	317	592	127	261	33	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	386	76	10	3	6	31	125	7	15	4	197	269	285	554	88	268	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	287	259	36	9	4	2	23	86	3	17	8	139	221	228	448	89	192	30	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	409	363	69	15	2	9	38	133	5	17	6	190	275	317	592	127	261	33	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	427	386	76	10	3	6	31	125	7	15	4	197	269	285	554	88	268	29	7	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	287	259	36	9	4	2	23	86	3	17	8	139	221	228	448	89	192	30	8	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	MIA	—	285	248	46	10	1	5	33	97	3	14	2	185	289	294	583	109	279	34	12	258	61	-13	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ RAW	MIA	—	285	235	56	13	1	6	46	72	3	14	2	238	370	379	748	140	316	25	16	343	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A+ MLE	MIA	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		258	33	11	255	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	22	A+ MLE	MIA	—	294	256	47	10	1	5	34	100	3	14	2	184	287	289	576	105	276	34	12	258	61	-14	+2	+0	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	335	296	56	11	2	6	33	101	3	10	2	189	277	301	578	111	261	30	10	266	66	-13	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIA	46%	407	360	70	14	2	8	40	119	4	12	3	194	282	311	593	117	264	29	10	275	72	-14	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	446	394	79	16	2	10	44	128	5	13	3	201	289	327	616	127	266	29	10	280	75	-13	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	470	415	85	17	3	11	47	134	5	14	3	205	293	340	633	135	267	29	10	282	77	-13	+2	+0	+2	+10	0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	478	422	86	17	3	11	48	137	5	14	4	204	293	336	629	133	266	29	10	282	77	-13	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	479	423	85	17	2	11	48	138	5	13	3	201	290	329	619	128	266	29	10	281	76	-14	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	473	417	82	16	2	10	48	137	5	12	3	197	287	317	604	120	264	29	10	279	75	-14	+1	-1	+2	+10	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	465	410	80	16	2	10	47	136	5	11	3	195	286	317	603	122	263	29	10	276	73	-15	+1	-2	+2	+10	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	116	103	20	4	1	2	11	35	1	3	1	194	278	311	589	117	254	30	9	252	66	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIA	46%	188	166	32	6	1	4	18	55	2	6	1	193	280	313	593	120	257	29	10	260	72	-6	+1	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	231	204	40	8	1	5	23	66	2	7	2	196	284	319	602	123	258	29	10	265	75	-7	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	255	225	44	8	1	6	25	73	3	8	2	196	285	320	605	124	259	29	10	267	77	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	259	228	44	8	1	6	26	74	3	8	2	193	284	316	600	123	259	29	10	267	77	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	260	229	44	8	1	6	26	75	3	7	2	192	283	314	597	122	258	29	10	266	76	-7	+1	-0	+1	+6	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	251	221	42	8	1	5	25	73	3	7	2	190	281	303	584	113	257	29	10	264	75	-7	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	244	215	41	8	1	5	25	71	2	6	1	191	281	307	588	116	255	29	10	262	73	-8	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1804	1591	307	58	8	39	179	522	19	52	13	193	282	313	595	120	258	29	10	264	66	-54	+5	-2	+6	+39	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	111	21	3	14	64	188	7	19	5	194	283	314	597	120	259	29	10	264	66	-20	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4952	4393	841	166	30	96	464	1465	60	159	47	191	278	308	586	117	261	30	9	265	66	-109	+10	-4	+13	+77	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	111	22	4	13	61	192	8	21	6	192	279	312	591	120	261	30	9	265	66	-20	+2	-1	+2	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.7	1,805	40	50	200	285	326	+6	+2	0.8	0.8
/162	664	15	19	+2.4	+0.7	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Wilfredo Lara (OGILVIE)	22	30	35	55	45	179/268/279	100	258	4	11	31%	10%	59	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	177/255/257	79	269	8	14	35%	9%	48	-2.5	207/287/299	92	295	7	12	29%	9%	69	-0.9	212/301/305	93	294	5	13	27%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	40→44	38→45	50→65	41	197/248/266	70	256	6	15	25%	5%	46	-2.6	206/264/300	94	275	7	19	26%	7%	60	-1.6	222/284/339	116	307	11	42	29%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Max George 2018 · A	22	39→38	42→45	50→55	44	192/267/299	107	251	9	15	27%	7%	61	-1.5	187/269/294	107	260	10	20	30%	7%	62	-1.4	144/249/271	127	213	15	25	38%	9%	48	-1.2
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2019 · A	22	39	41→45	51→55	42	192/267/295	103	286	9	14	34%	8%	61	-1.5	205/269/313	108	292	7	12	30%	6%	65	-1.2	178/265/281	103	258	10	19	32%	8%	56	-1.0
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	42	182/238/271	89	250	7	11	30%	6%	43	-2.8	225/293/312	87	303	7	9	26%	8%	74	-0.6	234/307/314	80	309	6	8	24%	9%	77	-0.3
✕Corey Joyce 2022 · AA	23	40	39→40	54→50	39	192/262/271	79	299	7	14	36%	7%	53	-2.1	205/306/320	115	292	11	13	31%	10%	82	-0.0	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jhonny Santos 2019 · A	22	41	40→45	50	41	203/253/296	93	271	8	14	28%	6%	55	-2.0	206/262/323	117	278	12	13	29%	6%	65	-1.2	190/248/321	131	245	17	9	29%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Ryan Bliss 2023 · A	23	35→45	44→45	52→60	39	184/241/293	109	256	12	21	32%	6%	50	-2.3	221/288/352	131	295	12	39	28%	8%	81	-0.1	221/289/349	127	292	11	41	26%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	39→40	53→60	49	181/288/262	81	287	6	16	35%	11%	63	-1.4	203/293/281	78	295	5	23	30%	10%	68	-1.0	205/292/276	72	294	4	31	28%	9%	64	-0.8
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→30	41→45	48→50	44	187/255/292	104	257	8	12	29%	8%	55	-1.9	174/252/260	86	262	6	9	33%	9%	47	-2.5	158/245/237	79	236	5	8	32%	9%	37	-1.9
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Melvin Santana 2014 · A	22	42	37→45	51→50	45	200/253/283	83	254	3	11	22%	6%	51	-2.2	203/251/281	78	279	3	11	27%	6%	50	-2.3	195/231/264	69	262	0	19	24%	4%	37	-0.6
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	67	-1.1	208/282/338	130	278	13	10	29%	6%	76	-0.4	207/287/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Charcer Burks 2017 · A	22	40→46	39→40	52→50	43	196/262/287	92	272	6	17	29%	7%	57	-1.8	205/277/295	90	285	7	14	28%	8%	64	-1.3	201/275/282	81	279	6	14	28%	8%	59	-1.4
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	40	38→45	53→50	48	189/275/275	85	275	5	15	31%	10%	59	-1.6	188/260/285	97	334	7	13	42%	8%	55	-1.9	138/202/215	77	286	6	16	50%	7%	15	-1.7
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	43→50	52→55	43	204/269/311	107	264	11	18	26%	6%	65	-1.2	205/270/351	146	270	17	18	29%	7%	75	-0.5	171/263/306	134	238	15	26	33%	8%	61	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps