Dennys Riera
SS DSL Giants Black| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKDSL Giants Bl… | 107 | .244/.387/.349 | 1 | 2 | 35 | — | .133/.264/.167 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROKDSL Giants Bl… | 144 | .200/.314/.292 | 0 | 3 | 9 | — | .130/.236/.187 |
| 2026 | 21 | ROKDSL Giants Bl… | 221 | .309/.411/.442 | 4 | 8 | 55 | — | .198/.299/.267 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSF | 331 | .212/.280/.297 | 3 | 5 | 64 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBSF | 53 | .213/.281/.305 | 1 | 1 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBSF | 107 | .216/.284/.315 | 1 | 2 | 73 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 57 / POW 37
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants Orange | — | 118 | 104 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 279 | 520 | 125 | 194 | 27 | 8 | 237 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | — | 218 | 188 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 300 | 309 | 609 | 101 | 247 | 20 | 8 | 277 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 86 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 244 | 387 | 349 | 736 | 105 | 323 | 22 | 13 | 342 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 120 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 314 | 292 | 606 | 92 | 255 | 21 | 6 | 279 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 181 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 309 | 411 | 442 | 853 | 133 | 347 | 15 | 8 | 375 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Orange | — | 118 | 106 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 94 | 172 | 170 | 342 | 75 | 118 | 33 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 218 | 193 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 130 | 211 | 176 | 387 | 47 | 158 | 24 | 6 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 264 | 167 | 431 | 33 | 202 | 28 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 123 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 130 | 236 | 187 | 423 | 57 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 187 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 198 | 299 | 267 | 566 | 70 | 218 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Orange | — | 118 | 106 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 94 | 172 | 170 | 342 | 75 | 132 | 33 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Orange | — | 118 | 104 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 279 | 520 | 125 | 194 | 27 | 8 | 237 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 218 | 193 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 130 | 211 | 176 | 387 | 47 | 167 | 24 | 6 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Black | — | 218 | 188 | 39 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 44 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 300 | 309 | 609 | 101 | 247 | 20 | 8 | 277 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 264 | 167 | 431 | 33 | 197 | 28 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 86 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 244 | 387 | 349 | 736 | 105 | 323 | 22 | 13 | 342 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 123 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 130 | 236 | 187 | 423 | 57 | 176 | 25 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 120 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 200 | 314 | 292 | 606 | 92 | 255 | 21 | 6 | 279 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 187 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 198 | 299 | 267 | 566 | 70 | 233 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 181 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 309 | 411 | 442 | 853 | 133 | 347 | 15 | 8 | 375 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Orange | — | 118 | 107 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 93 | 172 | 168 | 341 | 75 | 118 | 33 | 6 | 145 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 218 | 196 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 53 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 128 | 211 | 173 | 385 | 46 | 158 | 24 | 6 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 264 | 167 | 431 | 33 | 202 | 28 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 126 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 236 | 183 | 418 | 56 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 192 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 193 | 299 | 260 | 559 | 68 | 218 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 107 | 90 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 264 | 167 | 431 | 33 | 202 | 28 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 144 | 126 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 127 | 236 | 183 | 418 | 56 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | DSL Giants Black | — | 221 | 192 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 193 | 299 | 260 | 559 | 68 | 218 | 19 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | SF | 0% | 331 | 299 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 87 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 280 | 297 | 577 | 85 | 284 | 26 | 6 | 264 | 64 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | SF | 34% | 153 | 139 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 284 | 311 | 595 | 95 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 69 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | SF | 46% | 231 | 209 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 288 | 322 | 610 | 102 | 287 | 26 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 295 | 267 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 75 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 290 | 330 | 620 | 108 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 54% | 341 | 308 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 86 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 292 | 335 | 627 | 112 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 283 | 78 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 54% | 359 | 324 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 91 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 223 | 292 | 336 | 629 | 113 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 284 | 78 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 54% | 366 | 331 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 93 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 291 | 332 | 623 | 111 | 287 | 25 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 53% | 363 | 328 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 94 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 219 | 288 | 326 | 614 | 107 | 286 | 26 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 355 | 321 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 93 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 217 | 285 | 319 | 604 | 102 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | SF | 34% | 53 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 281 | 305 | 586 | 92 | 282 | 26 | 6 | 267 | 69 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | SF | 46% | 107 | 97 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 216 | 284 | 315 | 599 | 99 | 283 | 25 | 7 | 272 | 73 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 152 | 138 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 287 | 322 | 609 | 104 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 54% | 185 | 167 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 288 | 327 | 616 | 108 | 284 | 25 | 6 | 279 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 54% | 195 | 176 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 109 | 284 | 25 | 7 | 279 | 78 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 54% | 199 | 179 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 51 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 287 | 324 | 611 | 106 | 283 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 77 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 53% | 193 | 174 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 285 | 319 | 603 | 103 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 274 | 74 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 186 | 168 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 281 | 312 | 593 | 99 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 71 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1270 | 1148 | 250 | 47 | 7 | 19 | 85 | 326 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 218 | 286 | 321 | 607 | 103 | 285 | 26 | 7 | 275 | 62 | -37 | +2 | -2 | +14 | +28 | 0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 129 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 44 | 167 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 219 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 105 | 287 | 26 | 7 | 275 | 62 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3389 | 3033 | 613 | 114 | 19 | 44 | 221 | 862 | 95 | 63 | 22 | 202 | 277 | 296 | 573 | 94 | 263 | 25 | 7 | 260 | 62 | -78 | +3 | -4 | +28 | +56 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 118 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 165 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 203 | 277 | 296 | 572 | 93 | 265 | 25 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -20 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 DSLDSL Giants Black · 221 PAwOBA .377 → .249 (−128)K% 15.4% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 5.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.79% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.975 | 4.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.986 | ×0.975 | 17.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×0.975 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.975 | 1.25% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 18.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .377 → .249; ISO .133 → .074; BABIP .347 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Giants Black · 144 PAwOBA .280 → .181 (−99)K% 20.8% → 25.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.985 | 5.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷1.014 | ×0.680 | ×0.959 | ×0.985 | 11.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.014 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×0.985 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×0.985 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 101, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .280 → .181; ISO .092 → .055; BABIP .255 → .156. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Giants Black · 107 PAwOBA .338 → .220 (−118)K% 22.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.43% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷0.971 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.61% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 15.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.057 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.127 | ×0.600 | ×0.969 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.092 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.69% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 125, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .338 → .220; ISO .105 → .054; BABIP .323 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Giants Black · 218 PAwOBA .276 → .179 (−97)K% 20.2% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.18% | ÷1.020 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 12.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.962 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.118 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.88% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 94, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .276 → .179; ISO .101 → .052; BABIP .247 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Giants Orange · 118 PAwOBA .235 → .145 (−90)K% 27.1% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.12% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.63% | ÷0.976 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.54% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 7.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.060 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 3.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷0.973 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.37% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .235 → .145; ISO .125 → .064; BABIP .194 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).