Dennys Riera — OGILVIE

Dennys RieraSS DSL Giants Black

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 165 lbs ROK HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 82 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .290 / .295

PA82

HR1

K%24

BB%6

BABIP280

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$15M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	107	10	3	0	1	6	46	3	1	0	93	164	150	313	56	145	39	5	152	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	104	16	5	1	2	9	32	3	1	0	154	241	279	520	125	194	27	8	237	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	218	195	29	6	0	2	11	61	7	4	1	149	221	210	431	62	197	28	5	196	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	218	188	39	10	0	3	18	44	7	4	1	207	300	309	609	101	247	20	8	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	107	91	15	3	0	1	9	36	6	2	2	165	283	231	514	66	255	34	8	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	107	86	21	6	0	1	14	24	6	2	2	244	387	349	736	105	323	22	13	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	144	124	17	3	2	0	4	43	12	3	1	137	236	194	429	56	200	30	3	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	144	120	24	5	3	0	8	30	12	3	1	200	314	292	606	92	255	21	6	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	SF	—	124	101	26	5	0	2	7	29	10	3	0	257	364	366	731	109	316	23	6	305	92	-1	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.4
YTD	21	ROK	SF	—	124	96	31	7	0	2	11	20	10	3	0	323	441	458	899	135	362	16	9	388	155	+8	+1	+0	+1	+4	1.3
ROS	21	ROK	SF	0%	82	74	16	3	0	1	5	20	3	2	0	214	290	295	585	80	283	24	6	276	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	21	MLB	SF	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		278	—	—	246	46	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	SF	—	124	102	26	5	0	2	7	29	10	3	0	255	364	363	727	108	312	23	6	305	92	-1	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.4
TOT	21	ROK	SF	—	206	175	42	8	0	3	12	49	13	5	0	239	334	336	670	97	301	24	6	293	83	-4	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SF	34%	234	211	47	9	1	4	14	56	7	4	1	223	293	332	625	109	282	24	6	282	74	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2028	23	MLB	SF	48%	339	305	70	14	2	6	22	80	9	6	2	230	301	348	648	118	284	24	6	289	79	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2029	24	MLB	SF	53%	411	370	85	17	2	8	27	96	11	7	2	230	301	351	653	122	285	23	7	293	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.9
2030	25	MLB	SF	55%	451	406	93	18	2	9	30	105	12	8	2	229	301	350	651	121	285	23	7	295	84	-8	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.0
2031	26	MLB	SF	56%	475	428	98	19	2	10	32	111	12	9	2	229	301	353	654	124	285	23	7	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.1
2032	27	MLB	SF	55%	485	436	100	20	2	10	33	113	13	9	2	229	303	353	656	124	285	23	7	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.2
2033	28	MLB	SF	55%	486	437	99	19	2	10	33	114	13	9	2	227	300	348	648	121	285	23	7	294	84	-9	+1	-1	+5	+14	1.0
2034	29	MLB	SF	53%	480	432	97	19	2	9	33	114	12	9	2	225	298	340	638	116	284	24	7	293	82	-10	+1	-1	+5	+14	0.9
2035	30	MLB	SF	53%	472	424	96	19	2	9	33	113	12	8	2	226	301	344	645	118	283	24	7	290	80	-11	+1	-2	+5	+13	0.7
2036	31	MLB	SF	52%	460	413	92	18	2	8	32	112	12	8	2	223	298	334	632	111	281	24	7	286	77	-12	+1	-3	+5	+13	0.4
2037	32	MLB	SF	52%	442	397	88	17	2	8	31	109	11	7	2	222	296	335	631	113	278	25	7	281	73	-13	+1	-4	+5	+13	0.1
2038	33	MLB	SF	52%	413	372	80	15	2	7	28	104	10	6	2	215	288	323	610	108	274	25	7	275	68	-15	+0	-4	+4	+12	-0.3
2027	22	MLB	SF	34%	80	73	15	3	0	1	5	19	2	1	0	205	275	288	563	82	277	24	6	256	54	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	SF	48%	164	149	33	6	1	3	10	39	4	3	1	221	288	336	624	114	279	24	6	264	60	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	SF	53%	217	195	44	9	1	4	14	51	6	4	1	226	298	344	641	118	280	24	6	269	64	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
2030	25	MLB	SF	55%	247	223	50	10	1	5	16	58	6	5	1	224	294	345	639	121	280	23	6	271	66	-10	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2031	26	MLB	SF	56%	264	237	53	10	1	5	18	62	7	5	1	224	298	338	635	114	280	23	7	271	66	-10	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2032	27	MLB	SF	55%	267	240	53	10	1	5	18	62	7	5	1	221	294	333	628	112	280	23	7	271	66	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2033	28	MLB	SF	55%	266	239	53	10	1	5	18	63	7	5	1	222	295	335	630	113	279	24	7	271	65	-10	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.0
2034	29	MLB	SF	53%	256	229	51	10	1	5	18	61	7	5	1	223	299	341	640	118	279	24	7	269	64	-10	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
2035	30	MLB	SF	53%	248	223	48	9	1	4	17	59	6	4	1	215	289	318	607	103	278	24	7	267	62	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.2
2036	31	MLB	SF	52%	240	215	47	9	1	4	17	58	6	4	1	219	294	326	620	107	276	24	7	263	59	-11	+0	-1	+3	+7	-0.3
2037	32	MLB	SF	52%	229	205	44	8	1	4	16	56	6	4	1	215	291	322	613	107	273	24	7	258	56	-11	+0	-2	+2	+6	-0.4
2038	33	MLB	SF	52%	213	191	39	7	1	3	15	54	5	3	1	204	280	298	578	94	269	25	7	252	51	-12	+0	-2	+2	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2691	2420	530	101	11	48	182	642	69	48	11	219	293	329	622	110	277	24	7	266	62	-116	+5	-8	+29	+76	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	128	24	3	12	44	155	17	12	3	219	293	332	625	113	276	24	7	266	62	-28	+1	-2	+7	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	5817	5222	1132	222	25	103	383	1433	165	102	27	217	291	328	619	111	276	25	7	280	72	-183	+10	-15	+62	+165	4.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	127	25	3	12	43	160	18	11	3	217	291	332	624	115	276	25	7	280	72	-20	+1	-2	+7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	104	16	5	1	2	9	32	3	1	0	154	241	279	520	125	194	27	8	237	39	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	218	188	39	10	0	3	18	44	7	4	1	207	300	309	609	101	247	20	8	277	70	-7	+0	—	—	+6	-0.1
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	107	86	21	6	0	1	14	24	6	2	2	244	387	349	736	105	323	22	13	342	120	+2	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	144	120	24	5	3	0	8	30	12	3	1	200	314	292	606	92	255	21	6	279	72	-5	+0	—	—	+4	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,832	52	50	226	295	342	+30	+21	4.3	4.0
	/162	664	12	12	226	295	342	+7.1	+4.9	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dennys Riera (OGILVIE)	21	37→42	32→37	46→51	46	239/334/336	97	301	3	5	24%	6%	83	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕José Caballero 2018 · A	21	47→45	39→45	54→70	39	224/275/317	93	301	6	7	27%	5%	63	-0.8	223/291/334	111	281	10	19	23%	7%	76	+0.0	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	214/278/297	83	284	5	13	26%	8%	59	-1.1	217/304/278	61	289	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	216/317/260	44	285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→45	40	46→40	43	215/264/301	87	273	8	6	24%	6%	54	-1.4	227/296/326	99	305	8	4	26%	8%	75	-0.0	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Jairo Encarnacion 2007 · A	21	44	41→40	52→45	46	212/274/306	95	244	9	8	18%	6%	61	-1.0	229/298/318	89	272	8	7	18%	7%	74	-0.1	246/322/325	79	284	8	4	15%	7%	85	+0.3
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	45	38→40	42→45	47	212/273/289	77	273	5	5	23%	7%	56	-1.3	200/258/270	70	282	5	5	29%	7%	44	-2.1	202/252/250	48	271	3	6	25%	6%	33	-0.9
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	43	40	51→45	49	207/278/298	91	250	7	11	20%	7%	60	-1.0	201/261/288	87	294	7	8	32%	7%	50	-1.7	184/247/261	77	274	7	8	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Jose Cordova 2021 · A	21	49	37→40	50	42	230/287/303	73	298	4	13	23%	5%	65	-0.7	211/265/280	69	308	3	9	31%	5%	50	-1.8	227/290/312	85	305	4	12	25%	7%	65	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Melvin Santana 2013 · A	21	47	38→45	52→50	48	222/279/311	89	270	4	11	19%	7%	63	-0.9	199/247/277	78	265	3	11	25%	6%	40	-2.4	152/191/217	66	210	0	15	27%	4%	0	-0.9
✕Yoel Romero 2019 · A	21	46	38→40	48→50	48	219/282/294	75	276	5	13	22%	7%	60	-1.0	208/265/288	80	289	6	7	28%	7%	52	-1.6	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/292	75	304	6	16	29%	6%	56	-1.3	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2