Dennys Riera — OGILVIE

Dennys RieraSS DSL Giants Black

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 165 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION221 act + 20 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .278

PA20

HR0

K%25

BB%5

BABIP277

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	104	16	5	1	2	9	32	3	1	0	154	241	279	520	125	194	27	8	237	46	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.5
2023	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	218	188	39	10	0	3	18	44	7	4	1	207	300	309	609	101	247	20	8	277	73	-7	+0	—	—	+5	-0.2
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	107	86	21	6	0	1	14	24	6	2	2	244	387	349	736	105	323	22	13	342	118	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	144	120	24	5	3	0	8	30	12	3	1	200	314	292	606	92	255	21	6	279	75	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	107	11	3	1	1	6	46	3	1	0	103	172	178	350	75	140	39	5	154	-10	-15	+0	—	—	+3	-1.3
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	218	195	30	7	0	2	11	62	7	4	1	154	225	221	446	67	190	28	5	195	18	-21	+0	—	—	+5	-1.6
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	107	91	16	4	0	1	9	35	6	2	2	176	292	253	545	77	245	33	8	233	44	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	144	123	17	3	2	0	5	43	12	3	1	138	243	195	438	57	191	30	3	196	19	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	107	11	3	1	1	6	46	3	1	0	103	172	178	350	75	161	39	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	104	16	5	1	2	9	32	3	1	0	154	241	279	520	125	194	27	8	237	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	218	195	30	7	0	2	11	62	7	4	1	154	225	221	446	67	206	28	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	218	188	39	10	0	3	18	44	7	4	1	207	300	309	609	101	247	20	8	277	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	107	91	16	4	0	1	9	35	6	2	2	176	292	253	545	77	268	33	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	107	86	21	6	0	1	14	24	6	2	2	244	387	349	736	105	323	22	13	342	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	144	123	17	3	2	0	5	43	12	3	1	138	243	195	438	57	202	30	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	144	120	24	5	3	0	8	30	12	3	1	200	314	292	606	92	255	21	6	279	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	118	108	11	3	1	1	6	46	3	1	0	102	172	176	348	74	140	39	5	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	218	198	30	7	0	2	11	62	7	4	1	152	225	217	443	66	190	28	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	107	91	16	4	0	1	9	35	6	2	2	176	292	253	545	77	245	33	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	144	126	17	3	2	0	5	43	12	3	1	135	243	190	433	56	191	30	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	218	198	30	7	0	2	11	62	7	4	1	152	225	217	443	66	190	28	5	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	107	91	16	4	0	1	9	35	6	2	2	176	292	253	545	77	245	33	8	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	144	126	17	3	2	0	5	43	12	3	1	135	243	190	433	56	191	30	3	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	SF	—	221	188	45	9	0	3	11	49	15	8	2	239	332	335	667	96	294	22	5	287	80	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	SF	—	221	181	56	12	0	4	17	34	15	8	2	309	411	442	853	133	347	15	8	375	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	ROK MLE	SF	0%	20	18	4	1	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	222	300	278	578	56	282	25	5	281	76	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	21	ROK MLE	SF	—	241	206	49	10	0	3	12	54	16	8	2	238	329	330	659	92	295	22	5	287	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SF	34%	253	228	52	10	1	4	15	56	8	5	1	228	299	333	632	105	282	22	6	287	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	48%	353	319	74	15	1	7	21	78	10	7	2	232	300	351	651	119	283	22	6	293	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	53%	421	380	89	18	2	8	26	92	12	8	2	234	304	355	659	121	285	22	6	297	87	-6	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	55%	458	414	97	19	2	10	29	100	12	9	2	234	303	362	666	128	285	22	6	299	88	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	56%	479	432	101	20	2	10	31	105	13	9	3	234	305	359	663	125	285	22	6	299	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	55%	487	439	102	20	2	10	32	107	13	10	3	232	304	355	659	123	285	22	7	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	SF	55%	488	440	102	20	2	10	32	108	13	9	3	232	303	355	658	123	284	22	7	299	88	-7	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	SF	53%	481	433	101	20	2	10	32	107	13	9	3	233	305	358	663	125	284	22	7	297	87	-7	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	SF	53%	473	426	98	19	2	9	31	107	13	8	2	230	302	347	650	117	283	23	7	294	85	-8	+1	-2	+5	+10	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	SF	52%	460	414	94	18	2	9	31	105	12	8	2	227	300	345	645	118	281	23	7	290	83	-9	+1	-3	+5	+10	0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	SF	56%	443	399	88	17	1	8	29	103	12	7	2	221	293	328	622	108	278	23	7	285	79	-11	+1	-4	+5	+10	0.0
2038	33	MLB MLE	SF	59%	414	373	81	15	1	7	27	98	11	6	2	217	290	319	609	102	274	24	7	278	75	-13	+0	-4	+4	+9	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SF	34%	87	79	16	3	0	1	5	19	3	2	0	203	276	278	554	76	277	22	6	259	80	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	48%	171	154	35	7	1	3	10	38	5	3	1	227	296	344	640	117	278	22	6	266	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	53%	222	200	46	9	1	4	14	49	6	4	1	230	300	345	645	115	279	22	6	270	87	-3	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	55%	251	226	52	10	1	5	16	55	7	5	1	230	301	350	651	119	279	22	6	272	88	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	56%	267	241	55	11	1	5	17	58	7	5	1	228	298	344	643	116	279	22	6	273	89	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	55%	268	242	55	11	1	5	17	59	7	5	1	227	297	343	640	116	279	22	6	273	89	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	SF	55%	267	240	55	11	1	5	18	59	7	5	1	229	302	346	648	117	279	22	7	272	88	-4	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	SF	53%	257	231	52	10	1	5	17	57	7	5	1	225	298	342	640	117	278	22	7	271	87	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	SF	53%	249	223	51	10	1	5	17	56	7	4	1	229	304	350	653	121	277	22	7	268	85	-4	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	SF	52%	240	216	48	9	1	4	16	55	6	4	1	222	294	329	623	106	275	23	7	264	83	-5	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	SF	56%	249	224	49	9	1	4	16	58	7	4	1	219	291	321	613	103	273	23	6	260	79	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	SF	59%	244	220	47	9	1	4	16	58	6	4	1	214	285	318	603	105	269	24	7	253	75	-7	+0	-2	+3	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2772	2496	561	109	11	50	179	621	75	50	11	225	296	337	634	113	278	22	6	267	78	-50	+6	-8	+30	+60	3.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	133	26	3	12	42	146	18	12	3	227	300	344	643	116	281	22	6	267	78	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5817	5231	1157	229	23	106	368	1357	171	105	31	221	294	335	628	113	276	23	6	284	78	-94	+8	-15	+56	+113	7.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	130	26	3	12	41	152	19	12	3	222	295	338	633	116	278	23	6	284	78	-12	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,922	56	53	231	298	349	+31	+21	6.0	5.3
/162	664	13	12	+7.1	+4.8	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dennys Riera (OGILVIE)	21	40→45	33→38	47→52	45	222/294/316	94	282	2	4	23%	5%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2017 · A	21	44→48	40→50	46→40	49	214/288/305	91	268	8	6	23%	8%	70	-0.8	217/270/311	94	272	7	3	22%	6%	65	-1.2	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Jairo Encarnacion 2007 · A	21	44	41→40	52→45	46	212/274/306	95	244	9	8	18%	6%	65	-1.2	229/298/318	89	272	8	7	18%	7%	77	-0.3	246/322/325	79	284	8	4	15%	7%	86	+0.1
✕Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	48	209/283/307	98	259	8	11	22%	8%	70	-0.9	206/261/321	115	251	13	9	23%	6%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Juan Uriarte 2019 · A	21	46	41→45	49→30	41	223/277/320	96	282	8	4	23%	5%	69	-0.9	188/230/267	79	283	6	4	34%	4%	39	-3.1	147/184/208	60	226	4	0	36%	2%	5	-1.5
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Blake Ochoa 2007 · A	21	45	40→45	46→40	44	215/280/308	92	280	6	5	24%	6%	68	-1.0	216/268/311	95	281	7	4	24%	6%	63	-1.3	233/296/372	139	280	15	2	22%	7%	88	+0.1
✕Jose Cordova 2021 · A	21	49	37→40	50	42	230/287/303	73	298	4	13	23%	5%	69	-0.9	212/267/282	70	308	3	9	30%	5%	57	-1.8	229/290/316	87	306	5	11	25%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Gavin Cecchini 2015 · A	21	43→53	41→45	48→45	46	210/265/313	103	262	7	7	22%	7%	63	-1.4	246/295/341	95	290	7	5	17%	6%	80	-0.1	252/300/339	87	294	6	4	16%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Albert Hernandez 2010 · A	21	48	41→40	49→45	47	230/293/329	99	279	7	7	20%	7%	77	-0.3	217/271/297	80	301	6	6	28%	6%	61	-1.5	193/237/228	35	286	3	2	32%	5%	29	-0.8
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	74	-0.5	227/292/341	114	308	10	10	28%	6%	80	-0.1	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Edgardo Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	48	41→45	48→30	43	233/283/334	102	283	8	5	21%	5%	75	-0.5	202/244/277	75	298	6	5	33%	5%	47	-2.6	180/204/231	51	260	9	0	34%	2%	21	-0.8
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	49→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/348	112	284	7	12	19%	7%	84	+0.2	250/311/362	112	306	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2014 · A	21	46	39→45	49→50	41	219/277/316	97	283	4	11	23%	5%	68	-1.0	206/253/299	93	302	8	8	33%	5%	55	-1.9	198/240/286	88	291	10	7	34%	4%	45	-0.8
✕Glenn Santiago 2022 · A	21	43	40	51→45	49	207/278/298	91	250	7	11	20%	7%	65	-1.2	199/261/287	88	292	7	8	32%	7%	56	-1.9	182/247/261	79	270	7	8	33%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Carlos Narváez 2021 · A	22	47→45	38→45	48→45	46	219/291/300	81	314	5	6	30%	9%	70	-0.8	192/280/305	113	303	13	5	37%	10%	68	-1.0	212/295/344	132	286	15	6	29%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Melvin Santana 2013 · A	21	47	38→45	52→50	48	222/279/311	89	270	4	11	19%	7%	67	-1.1	199/247/277	78	265	3	11	25%	6%	47	-2.5	152/191/217	66	210	0	15	27%	4%	12	-0.9
✕Tyler Nevin 2018 · A	21	48→54	41→50	47→45	44	231/283/335	104	294	8	9	24%	6%	74	-0.5	229/283/336	107	290	10	6	23%	7%	75	-0.5	238/316/376	138	288	16	4	22%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	45→48	42→45	51→50	42	215/281/322	107	301	9	11	30%	7%	72	-0.7	206/277/331	125	321	14	12	37%	7%	73	-0.6	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Yairo Muñoz 2016 · A	21	45→55	41→45	49→55	42	218/258/318	100	260	9	7	20%	5%	61	-1.5	233/270/349	116	287	12	11	23%	4%	73	-0.6	263/305/392	130	320	14	17	22%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Manuel Joseph 2014 · A	20	49	40→45	51→50	44	234/287/326	92	283	6	16	20%	5%	74	-0.5	246/305/362	116	287	10	14	17%	6%	89	+0.5	277/338/426	150	303	14	17	13%	6%	118	+1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps