Orlando Marcelin

P DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 20 LHP 6'2" / 160 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	4	7	0.00	2.10	20.0%	4.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 4.0% · FIP 1.92
2026	19	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	20	34	4.76	4.28	26.5%	22.9%	—	K 18.0% · BB 28.7% · FIP 5.66
2027PROJ	20	MLBTOR	19	20	5.81	5.81	21.2%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBTOR	15	16	5.47	5.33	21.8%	16.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsCD Pelham (age 20) · Yenfri Sosa (age 20) · Peter Bonilla (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%21.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	4	0	7	25	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	4.0%	16.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.92	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	4	0	7	25	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	4.0%	16.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.92	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	4	0	7	25	5	1	0	0%	1.8	20.0%	4.0%	16.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	34	170	45	39	1	0%	1.7	18.0%	28.7%	-10.7%	0.8%	4.76	5.66	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	34	170	45	39	1	0%	1.7	18.0%	28.7%	-10.7%	0.8%	4.76	5.66	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	34	170	45	39	1	0%	1.7	26.5%	22.9%	3.5%	0.6%	4.76	4.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	TOR	19	0	20	84	18	17	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	20.0%	1.2%	2.9%	5.81	5.81	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	31	0	32	136	30	23	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	16.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.47	5.33	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	15	0	16	68	15	11	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.47	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	15	11	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.47	4.95	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	139	25	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.8%	5.0%	2.8%	5.47	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		24	0	41	195	36	50	1	0%	1.7	18.3%	25.5%	-7.3%	0.7%	3.95	5.18	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	0	200	951	174	243	7	0%	1.7	18.3%	25.5%	-7.3%	0.7%	3.95	5.18	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Orlando Marcelin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	21.2%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.33	21.8%	5.0%	32	-0.48	—	—	—
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	86
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	85
Peter Bonilla L 2024 · 4.63 FIP	19	SU	4.63	20.9%	18.3%	1.8%	.250	6.24	19.5%	-5.4%	51	+1.61	4.27	134	83
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	80
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	80
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	79
Deyer Zapata L 2024 · 5.79 FIP	20	SU	5.79	18.0%	15.3%	4.1%	.319	3.77	16.2%	7.0%	15	-2.02	3.77	130	79
Daniel Juarez L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	20	SU	4.75	25.6%	19.2%	2.5%	.170	4.09	21.8%	9.3%	131	-0.66	3.68	221	78
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	78
Luis Flores L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	20	SU	6.27	26.2%	26.3%	3.7%	.395	5.39	20.7%	-3.6%	82	-0.88	4.25	130	78
Daniel Gonzalez L 2022 · 5.66 FIP	20	SU	5.66	16.3%	14.0%	3.9%	.310	4.44	23.2%	1.7%	55	-1.22	4.34	136	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	77
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	76
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	76
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	76
Riger Fernandez L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	17.2%	19.5%	0.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	164	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.6%	18.1%	1.11	5.60
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Lloyd Allen ('69-'75, -5 WAR*)	1.5	59	19.8%*	13.9%*	0.79*	5.99*