Luis Flores — OGILVIE

Luis Flores P Lake County Captains

Age 22 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124132vR 140

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%27.1%

BB%22.9%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL2020

CMD4545

K†6565

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	25	121	32	22	0	0%	1.3	18.0%	22.7%	-4.7%	0.0%	3.20	4.46	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	19	0	25	121	32	22	0	0%	1.3	26.4%	18.2%	8.3%	0.0%	3.20	3.18	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	2	0	2	11	3	5	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	45.5%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.55	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Blue	2	0	2	11	3	5	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	45.5%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	6.55	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Blue	2	0	2	11	3	5	0	0%	1.0	27.3%	45.5%	-18.2%	0.0%	9.00	7.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	26.2%	26.3%	-0.1%	3.7%	5.87	6.27	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	26.2%	26.3%	-0.1%	3.7%	5.87	6.27	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	17	0	23	114	44	24	3	0%	1.4	38.6%	21.1%	17.5%	2.6%	5.87	4.10	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	21.8%	4.4%	1.1%	4.64	4.25	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	26.3%	21.8%	4.4%	1.1%	4.64	4.25	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	239	80	46	2	0%	1.4	33.5%	19.2%	14.2%	0.8%	4.64	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	14.4%	27.2%	-12.8%	2.5%	9.16	6.68	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	14.4%	27.2%	-12.8%	2.5%	9.16	6.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	CLE	35	0	38	203	38	48	4	0%	1.1	18.7%	23.6%	-4.9%	2.0%	9.16	5.60	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	CLE	6	0	6	25	7	6	1	0%	1.0	27.1%	22.9%	4.2%	2.8%	5.64	5.64	-0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	44	228	45	54	5	—	—	19.6%	23.6%	-3.9%	2.1%	8.69	6.54	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	89	0	93	394	108	75	11	0%	1.0	27.4%	18.9%	8.5%	2.8%	5.26	5.10	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	91	0	96	404	111	66	11	0%	1.1	27.6%	16.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.92	4.74	-0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	92	0	97	409	113	59	11	0%	1.1	27.7%	14.5%	13.2%	2.8%	4.66	4.50	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	92	0	97	409	114	59	11	0%	1.1	27.8%	14.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.55	4.48	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	91	0	95	403	112	58	11	0%	1.0	27.7%	14.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.53	4.51	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	88	0	92	391	108	57	11	0%	1.1	27.6%	14.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.60	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	84	0	88	373	102	55	11	0%	1.1	27.4%	14.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.73	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	79	0	83	350	95	53	11	0%	1.1	27.0%	15.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	44	0	46	194	53	37	5	0%	1.0	27.4%	18.9%	8.5%	2.8%	5.26	5.10	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	64	0	67	283	78	46	8	0%	1.0	27.6%	16.3%	11.3%	2.8%	4.92	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	75	0	79	334	92	48	9	0%	1.1	27.7%	14.5%	13.2%	2.8%	4.66	4.50	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	81	0	85	359	100	51	10	0%	1.0	27.8%	14.3%	13.4%	2.8%	4.55	4.48	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	82	0	86	363	101	52	10	0%	1.0	27.7%	14.4%	13.3%	2.8%	4.53	4.51	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	81	0	85	359	99	52	11	0%	1.0	27.6%	14.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.57	4.60	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	78	0	82	346	95	51	11	0%	1.1	27.4%	14.8%	12.6%	3.1%	4.67	4.73	-0.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	74	0	78	329	89	50	11	0%	1.1	27.0%	15.1%	12.0%	3.3%	4.81	4.91	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		579	0	608	2566	706	388	75	0%	1.0	27.5%	15.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.29	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	232	128	25	0%	1.0	27.5%	15.1%	12.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		110	0	141	688	147	170	12	0%	1.3	21.3%	24.7%	-3.4%	1.7%	5.87	5.38	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	976	208	241	17	0%	1.3	21.3%	24.7%	-3.4%	1.7%	5.87	5.38	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	27.1%	22.9%	2.8%	—	4.78	27.5%	11.0%	286	-0.86	—	—	—
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	77
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	76
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	76
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	76
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	76
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	75
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	75
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	74
Destin Dotson L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	23.0%	19.9%	4.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	113	74
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	73
Ramon Perez L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	22	SU	4.98	19.9%	17.9%	2.4%	.290	3.08	28.9%	14.2%	31	-1.90	3.08	199	73
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	72
Zach Matson L 2019 · 4.72 FIP	23	SU	4.72	25.2%	15.2%	3.3%	.284	4.78	22.0%	10.7%	89	+0.06	4.39	187	70
Marlin Willis L 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SU	4.51	23.4%	24.3%	0.6%	.318	5.05	22.7%	-3.6%	73	+0.54	3.15	201	69
Luis Amaya L 2021 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	23.0%	14.8%	4.8%	.313	4.13	20.8%	9.1%	107	-1.50	2.65	274	69
Gabriel Rodriguez L 2021 · 6.53 FIP	22	SU	6.53	26.8%	33.3%	2.7%	.333	6.42	18.4%	-12.5%	39	-0.11	6.05	128	69
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	69
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	68
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	92	27.5%	16.2%	1.12	4.84
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15