Luis Flores
P
Lake County Captains
+0.1
WAR
Age 22
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2028
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.1%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%11.6%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2028
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Blue | 19 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 32 | 22 | 0 | 18.0% | 22.7% | 0.0% | 3.20 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Guardians Blue | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 17 | 0 | 23 | 114 | 44 | 24 | 3 | 26.2% | 26.3% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 6.30 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 37 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 80 | 46 | 2 | 26.3% | 21.8% | 1.1% | 4.64 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 10.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 24.1% | 12.4% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 34 | 145 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 23.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 25.2% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 25.5% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.08 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 25.5% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 0 | 105 | 499 | 120 | 117 | 8 | 24.1% | 23.4% | 1.6% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 0 | 200 | 947 | 228 | 222 | 15 | 24.1% | 23.4% | 1.6% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Flores (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 24.1% | 12.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.21 | 25.1% | 14.7% | 99 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Brendan Nail L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 89 |
| Evan Taylor L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.32 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 2.7% | .304 | 3.18 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.08 | 163 | 89 |
| Seth Clark L 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 88 |
| Brent Killam L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 29.1% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .284 | 6.72 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 80 | +2.41 | 4.31 | 121 | 87 |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 87 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 86 |
| Andrew Walling L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 83 |
| Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 83 |
| Jeff Belge L 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 24.0% | 18.8% | 2.7% | .343 | 3.71 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 131 | -1.21 | 3.32 | 175 | 82 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 82 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 82 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 81 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2029 · 4.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.05 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .382 | 3.83 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 156 | -0.22 | 2.44 | 171 | 81 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 80 |
| Luke Fox L 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.25 | 21.8% | 19.2% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.16 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 114 | -1.09 | 3.20 | 144 | 80 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.32 | 27.0% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .423 | 4.72 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 357 | +0.40 | 4.15 | 497 | 80 |
| Jimmy Burnette L 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.60 | 29.8% | 15.2% | 2.0% | .297 | 3.99 | 22.3% | 5.5% | 101 | +0.39 | 3.06 | 158 | 80 |
| Josh Simpson L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 80 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.58 | 26.1% | 14.7% | 1.5% | .275 | 4.57 | 24.9% | 12.7% | 187 | +0.99 | 3.05 | 433 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||