Luis Flores
P
Lake County Captains
Age 22
LHP
5'11" / 190 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118127vR 136
ERA5.19
FIP5.19
K%27.1%
BB%19.4%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Blue | 19 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 32 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 22.7% | -4.7% | 0.0% | 3.20 | 4.46 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Blue | 19 | 0 | 25 | 121 | 32 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.4% | 18.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 3.20 | 3.18 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Guardians Blue | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 45.5% | -18.2% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 6.55 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Guardians Blue | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 45.5% | -18.2% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 7.60 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 17 | 0 | 23 | 114 | 44 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.2% | 26.3% | -0.1% | 3.8% | 5.87 | 6.30 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 17 | 0 | 23 | 114 | 44 | 24 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 38.6% | 21.1% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 5.87 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 80 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.3% | 21.8% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 4.64 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 239 | 80 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.5% | 19.2% | 14.2% | 0.8% | 4.64 | 3.18 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 25 | 0 | 27 | 131 | 26 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 19.3% | -4.0% | 2.9% | 7.24 | 5.83 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 103 | 74 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 19.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 27.1% | 19.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.19 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 117 | 511 | 129 | 96 | 14 | — | — | 25.3% | 18.7% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 5.67 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 27.1% | 19.4% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 108 | 64 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 16.3% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 91 | 0 | 96 | 404 | 111 | 58 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 113 | 53 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.30 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 114 | 52 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 112 | 52 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +1.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 53 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.4% | 16.3% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.89 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 78 | 40 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 92 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.7% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 2.8% | 4.43 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 100 | 46 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.28 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 101 | 47 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 14.9% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 346 | 0 | 363 | 1533 | 424 | 208 | 43 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.01 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 234 | 115 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 13.6% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 0 | 130 | 616 | 137 | 140 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 22.7% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 5.19 | 5.02 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 948 | 212 | 215 | 16 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.3% | 22.7% | -0.4% | 1.7% | 5.19 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Flores (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.19 | 27.1% | 19.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.51 | 27.5% | 13.0% | 286 | -0.68 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Rey L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 22.0% | 1.3% | .297 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 5.0% | 84 | -0.48 | 3.91 | 141 | 83 |
| Kyle Dohy L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.60 | 25.4% | 19.7% | 2.1% | .361 | 3.17 | 28.3% | 14.8% | 54 | -1.43 | 2.56 | 167 | 82 |
| Andrew Walling L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.95 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 105 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 161 | 81 |
| Jeff Belge L 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.03 | 24.0% | 18.8% | 2.9% | .343 | 3.76 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 131 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 175 | 81 |
| Seth Clark L 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.13 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +0.83 | 4.30 | 128 | 78 |
| Liam Norris L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.01 | 30.0% | 16.8% | 2.4% | .296 | 8.67 | 23.3% | -13.8% | 27 | +4.66 | 4.01 | 184 | 77 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.60 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 172 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 265 | 77 |
| Kade Bragg L 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 77 |
| Ronan Kopp L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.54 | 25.0% | 19.9% | 1.9% | .312 | 4.34 | 25.7% | 6.6% | 89 | -0.20 | 3.07 | 269 | 76 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 21.9% | 18.5% | 1.6% | .361 | 4.59 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 99 | +0.14 | 3.16 | 146 | 76 |
| Brendan Nail L 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 76 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.31 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .341 | 3.53 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.78 | 3.41 | 265 | 75 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2027 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.78 | 22.5% | 21.0% | 3.5% | .206 | 4.70 | 19.1% | -0.1% | 90 | -1.08 | 4.28 | 136 | 74 |
| Nick Jones L 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.14 | 22.3% | 17.9% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.65 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 143 | -0.49 | 1.32 | 201 | 74 |
| Angel Hernandez L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.64 | 23.4% | 21.0% | 3.4% | .262 | 4.42 | 21.2% | 1.6% | 123 | -1.22 | 3.33 | 182 | 74 |
| Jefry Yan L 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 26.6% | 19.5% | 2.3% | .319 | 3.71 | 29.1% | 10.4% | 108 | -0.85 | 3.18 | 230 | 74 |
| Juanmi Vasquez L 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.47 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 4.0% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 164 | 74 |
| Armando Vasquez L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 21.5% | 18.0% | 2.9% | .312 | 6.51 | 20.8% | 2.7% | 36 | +1.36 | 4.25 | 131 | 74 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 73 |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 5.84 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.84 | 23.0% | 19.9% | 4.0% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 113 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 95 | 27.5% | 14.7% | 1.08 | 4.63 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |