Luis Amaya
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 160 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 16 | ROK | DSL Giants | 20 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 17.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 1.77 | 3.82 | — |
| 2015 | 16 | ROK | DSL Giants | 20 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 50 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 26.0% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 0.5% | 1.77 | 2.64 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | AZL Giants | 5 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 2.48 | — |
| 2016 | 17 | ROK | AZL Giants | 5 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 3.68 | 2.42 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 16 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.1% | 19.5% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 3.96 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Giants Black | 16 | 0 | 22 | 96 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.1% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 2.68 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 47 | 189 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 1.74 | 2.65 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 47 | 189 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 0.0% | 1.74 | 1.94 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 33 | 3 | 53 | 246 | 70 | 33 | 9 | 9% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 5.57 | 5.87 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 33 | 3 | 53 | 246 | 70 | 33 | 9 | 9% | 1.6 | 28.5% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 5.57 | 4.53 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 34 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.4% | 14.1% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 3.33 | 4.02 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 34 | 0 | 46 | 204 | 62 | 25 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 30.4% | 12.3% | 18.1% | 1.5% | 3.33 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 61 | 261 | 62 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 4.21 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 61 | 261 | 62 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.8% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 3.71 | 3.48 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 64 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.06 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 79 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 172 | 3 | 281 | 1222 | 251 | 159 | 25 | 2% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 4.14 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 122 | 2 | 200 | 869 | 178 | 113 | 18 | 2% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 13.0% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 3.49 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Amaya (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 22.9% | 13.4% | 41 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 84 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 84 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 83 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 81 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 80 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 80 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 79 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.32 | 21.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | .368 | 3.66 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 100 | +0.34 | 3.04 | 153 | 79 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 79 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 79 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 79 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.26 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.91 | 20.1% | 10.8% | 34 | -0.35 | 2.34 | 338 | 79 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 308 | 78 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .197 | 4.72 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.75 | 3.97 | 133 | 78 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.79 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.91 | 3.88 | 269 | 78 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.49 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.26 | 2.55 | 261 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 78 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.80 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 3.4% | .242 | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 109 | +0.88 | 3.80 | 172 | 78 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.33 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .305 | 4.87 | 17.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +1.54 | 3.33 | 228 | 77 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 42 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 1.17 | 4.37 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |