Richer Mata — OGILVIE

Richer MataC DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 18 L/R 6'2" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 52 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+44

AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .250 / .277

PA52

HR1

K%37

BB%10

BABIP259

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$23M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	103	8	1	0	1	14	51	1	4	3	78	195	117	311	39	135	43	12	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	95	13	2	0	1	22	37	1	4	3	137	305	189	495	53	207	31	18	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	78	63	5	3	0	1	10	43	1	2	0	79	216	175	391	95	190	55	13	193	6	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
YTD	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	78	57	8	4	0	2	16	30	1	2	0	140	338	316	654	175	222	38	21	295	84	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	18	ROK	—	0%	52	47	8	2	0	1	5	19	0	1	0	170	250	277	527	106	277	37	10	243	44	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	—	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		277	—	—	243	44	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	—	—	78	64	5	3	0	1	10	43	1	2	0	78	216	172	388	94	182	55	13	193	6	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.4
TOT	18	ROK	—	—	130	110	13	5	0	2	15	62	1	3	0	118	230	218	448	100	229	48	12	213	21	-12	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	192	170	32	7	1	3	18	67	2	3	1	188	274	294	568	106	282	35	9	257	55	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	331	293	57	12	2	6	31	112	4	4	1	195	280	311	591	116	285	34	9	267	63	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	436	387	76	15	2	9	41	144	5	6	1	196	282	315	597	119	286	33	9	274	68	-16	+1	+0	+8	+12	0.5
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	511	452	91	18	3	11	48	167	6	7	2	201	287	327	614	126	287	33	9	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.8
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	520	459	94	19	3	12	49	170	7	7	2	205	291	338	629	133	288	33	9	281	73	-16	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	520	459	94	19	3	12	49	169	7	7	2	205	291	338	629	133	289	32	9	283	75	-15	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	520	459	94	19	3	12	49	169	7	7	2	205	291	338	629	133	289	32	9	284	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	520	459	94	19	3	12	49	169	7	7	2	205	291	338	629	133	289	32	9	285	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	520	458	94	19	3	12	50	169	7	7	2	205	293	338	632	133	289	32	10	285	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	520	457	93	18	3	12	51	170	7	7	2	204	293	335	628	131	288	33	10	284	76	-14	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	66	59	10	2	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	169	258	254	512	85	282	35	9	257	55	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	160	142	28	6	1	3	15	54	2	2	0	197	283	317	600	120	285	34	9	267	63	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	236	209	41	8	1	5	22	78	3	3	1	196	282	316	598	120	286	33	9	274	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	289	256	51	10	2	6	27	95	4	4	1	199	286	324	610	125	287	33	9	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	299	265	55	11	2	7	28	97	4	4	1	208	293	343	636	136	288	32	9	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	296	262	54	11	2	7	28	96	4	4	1	206	293	344	636	137	289	32	9	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	295	261	54	11	2	7	28	96	4	4	1	207	294	345	638	138	289	33	9	284	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	294	260	54	11	2	7	28	96	4	4	1	208	295	346	641	138	289	33	10	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	289	255	51	10	1	7	28	94	4	4	1	200	289	329	619	129	289	33	10	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	307	270	55	11	2	7	30	100	4	4	1	204	293	337	630	133	288	33	10	284	76	-8	+0	-0	+5	+9	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2531	2240	453	91	15	57	240	829	34	34	8	202	289	333	622	130	290	33	9	280	73	-78	+4	-0	+45	+72	4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	116	23	4	15	62	213	9	9	2	202	290	334	624	132	289	33	10	280	73	-20	+1	-0	+12	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	4761	4203	835	168	26	103	454	1576	60	67	20	199	286	325	611	126	287	33	10	277	70	-162	+5	-1	+85	+135	6.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	114	23	4	14	62	215	8	9	3	199	286	326	611	127	287	33	10	277	70	-22	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	95	13	2	0	1	22	37	1	4	3	137	305	189	495	53	207	31	18	250	50	-7	-0	—	—	+3	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,633	58	35	202	285	329	+47	+24	4.2	4.1
	/162	664	15	9	202	285	329	+11.9	+6.1	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Richer Mata (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	118/230/218	100	229	2	3	48%	12%	21	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	43→45	38→45	46→50	44	201/275/277	76	311	6	9	35%	9%	54	-1.4	211/298/310	99	331	7	14	35%	9%	72	-0.2	226/292/355	129	316	11	14	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Robert Lopez 2022 · A	18	38	39→45	48→45	42	181/262/270	89	284	6	6	36%	8%	48	-1.9	190/252/274	84	293	7	4	35%	7%	43	-2.2	183/243/267	84	277	9	3	35%	7%	34	-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Omar Alfonzo 2022 · A	18	42→40	37→45	48→40	49	193/291/265	72	306	5	4	35%	11%	59	-1.1	195/283/284	89	295	8	4	33%	10%	59	-1.1	200/285/307	107	317	13	2	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Leopoldo Correa 2010 · A	18	41	42→45	50→30	48	197/280/305	107	291	9	5	33%	10%	63	-0.8	210/272/297	87	263	6	3	21%	7%	57	-1.2	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	39	40→45	46→45	47	181/281/275	94	294	7	6	37%	11%	57	-1.2	183/259/259	76	293	5	6	36%	9%	43	-2.2	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
●Manuel Pena 2022 · A	18	41→43	40→50	50	41	202/257/292	90	282	8	15	30%	7%	50	-1.8	197/245/281	84	297	6	9	33%	6%	41	-2.3	216/250/345	129	289	16	6	31%	4%	58	-0.9
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	41	41→50	46→45	44	205/260/295	90	268	9	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	207/258/303	96	281	7	7	27%	6%	53	-1.5	221/277/353	132	285	12	9	26%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	37	-2.6	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	53	-1.5	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→41	38→45	53→55	48	181/263/262	81	241	5	13	26%	8%	46	-2.0	206/287/315	109	272	10	17	26%	9%	69	-0.4	200/284/304	104	268	11	24	28%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	37	40→45	51→60	42	173/271/261	88	302	7	6	41%	9%	50	-1.8	193/299/287	94	289	6	11	32%	11%	68	-0.5	180/305/264	84	250	5	20	26%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	37→47	35→45	44→45	45	175/255/243	68	260	2	6	31%	8%	37	-2.6	206/250/273	67	281	3	5	26%	5%	40	-2.4	255/291/351	96	335	7	7	25%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	44→47	38→50	46→50	41	211/266/287	76	294	6	6	29%	6%	52	-1.6	206/257/295	89	285	7	8	29%	6%	50	-1.7	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/265	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	40	-2.4	198/256/259	61	255	3	6	22%	6%	40	-2.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Ryan Mount 2006 · A	19	42	38→50	50	42	194/262/277	83	304	5	8	35%	8%	48	-1.9	215/268/329	114	293	12	11	29%	6%	63	-0.8	251/293/410	160	306	19	8	24%	5%	95	+0.5
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6