Richer Mata — OGILVIE

Richer MataC DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 121 proj PA

wRC+47

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .258 / .249

PA121

HR1

K%32

BB%9

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE70

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	95	13	2	0	1	22	37	1	4	3	137	305	189	495	53	207	31	18	250	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	112	17	6	0	2	25	49	1	4	0	152	312	259	571	107	227	34	17	263	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	101	8	1	0	1	16	44	1	4	3	79	212	119	331	40	125	37	13	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	119	11	4	0	1	18	60	1	4	0	92	217	151	369	59	140	41	12	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	101	8	1	0	1	16	44	1	4	3	79	212	119	331	40	123	37	13	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	95	13	2	0	1	22	37	1	4	3	137	305	189	495	53	207	31	18	250	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	119	11	4	0	1	18	60	1	4	0	92	217	151	369	59	159	41	12	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	112	17	6	0	2	25	49	1	4	0	152	312	259	571	107	227	34	17	263	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	101	8	1	0	1	16	44	1	4	3	79	212	119	331	40	125	37	13	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	125	11	4	0	1	18	60	1	4	0	88	217	144	361	56	140	41	12	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	119	101	8	1	0	1	16	44	1	4	3	79	212	119	331	40	125	37	13	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	145	125	11	4	0	1	18	60	1	4	0	88	217	144	361	56	140	41	12	177	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	255	228	40	8	1	2	23	81	2	4	1	178	260	251	511	73	261	32	9	238	47	-16	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	208	185	33	6	1	2	19	65	2	4	1	184	267	266	533	83	265	31	9	247	53	-12	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	48%	339	302	56	10	2	4	31	104	3	7	2	189	272	279	551	91	267	31	9	254	58	-17	+1	+0	+6	+7	-0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	54%	434	387	74	14	2	6	40	130	4	9	3	193	276	290	566	97	270	30	9	260	62	-20	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	57%	497	443	87	16	3	8	46	147	5	10	3	197	279	300	579	103	272	30	9	265	66	-20	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	462	93	17	3	9	48	152	5	11	4	201	282	308	590	107	274	29	9	270	69	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	520	462	93	17	3	9	48	152	5	11	4	201	283	309	592	108	274	29	9	270	69	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	56%	520	462	93	17	3	9	48	152	5	11	4	201	283	310	592	109	273	29	9	270	69	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	520	462	93	17	3	9	48	152	5	10	4	200	282	307	589	107	273	29	9	269	68	-20	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	59%	520	462	92	17	3	9	48	154	5	10	4	198	280	302	582	104	272	30	9	266	66	-21	+0	-1	+9	+11	-0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	61%	520	462	91	17	3	8	48	155	5	9	4	195	277	296	572	101	270	30	9	262	64	-22	+0	-1	+9	+11	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	71	63	11	2	0	1	7	22	1	1	0	184	267	266	533	83	265	31	10	247	53	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	48%	164	146	27	5	1	2	15	50	2	3	1	189	272	279	551	91	267	30	9	254	58	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	54%	235	209	39	7	1	3	22	71	2	5	2	193	276	290	566	97	270	30	9	260	62	-11	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	57%	281	250	50	9	2	5	26	83	3	6	2	197	279	300	579	103	272	30	9	265	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	294	262	53	10	2	5	27	86	3	6	2	201	282	308	590	107	274	29	9	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	294	262	53	10	2	5	27	86	3	6	2	201	283	309	592	108	274	29	9	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	56%	294	262	53	10	2	5	27	86	3	6	2	201	283	310	592	109	273	29	9	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	288	256	51	9	2	5	27	84	3	6	2	200	282	307	589	107	273	29	9	269	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	59%	307	273	54	10	2	5	28	91	3	6	2	198	280	302	582	104	272	30	9	266	66	-12	+0	-0	+5	+7	-0.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	61%	317	282	55	10	2	5	29	94	3	5	2	195	277	296	572	101	270	30	9	262	64	-14	+0	-1	+6	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2545	2265	446	82	16	41	235	753	26	50	17	197	280	302	581	105	273	30	9	265	62	-104	+3	-1	+45	+55	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	113	21	4	10	60	192	7	13	4	196	279	298	577	102	272	30	9	265	62	-27	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4983	4417	844	157	27	76	469	1505	47	102	37	191	276	290	566	99	268	30	9	259	62	-197	+5	-2	+84	+102	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	110	20	4	10	61	196	6	13	5	191	275	292	567	101	267	30	9	259	62	-27	+1	-0	+12	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,668	43	52	197	276	300	+48	+24	1.4	1.5
/162	664	11	13	+11.9	+6.0	0.3	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Richer Mata (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	32→37	48→53	70	176/258/249	73	261	1	2	32%	9%	47	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	35→41	36→45	48→40	50	170/265/234	64	247	4	3	30%	10%	47	-2.6	207/288/311	104	312	11	4	34%	10%	72	-0.7	205/285/317	112	311	13	2	36%	9%	70	-0.6
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	38	37→45	47→45	51	180/266/253	73	238	4	6	25%	10%	51	-2.2	200/296/287	87	250	6	8	20%	10%	70	-0.8	188/295/296	108	247	11	6	26%	12%	69	-0.4
✕Rafael Ramirez Jr. 2024 · A	19	39	39→40	51→45	52	184/289/271	87	279	5	10	32%	12%	64	-1.3	183/279/280	97	312	6	8	38%	11%	62	-1.4	181/284/294	113	294	8	6	37%	12%	65	-0.6
✕Vladi Gomez 2024 · A	18	34	38→30	55→65	49	165/258/243	77	232	5	14	29%	10%	47	-2.6	177/267/241	64	248	3	28	27%	10%	49	-2.4	170/262/223	53	238	2	43	27%	10%	41	-1.0
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	38	36→40	49→50	48	179/264/246	67	265	3	9	31%	10%	49	-2.4	191/274/274	83	295	5	14	33%	9%	59	-1.7	189/281/265	77	291	4	18	33%	10%	58	-1.0
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	42	172/250/235	63	266	3	6	34%	8%	40	-3.0	198/264/283	85	295	7	4	33%	8%	57	-1.8	188/259/268	80	276	7	3	32%	8%	48	-0.9
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	19	41	35→40	46→50	53	191/283/246	55	262	2	10	26%	11%	55	-1.9	187/254/251	64	288	3	9	33%	8%	45	-2.7	169/235/228	58	266	2	10	34%	7%	30	-1.3
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Dario Laverde 2024 · A	19	46→34	37→40	52→30	50	214/292/297	83	279	3	11	23%	9%	70	-0.9	207/268/284	77	295	4	4	29%	7%	57	-1.8	196/254/265	68	282	4	0	30%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Narciso Polanco 2024 · A	19	38→42	36→40	47→55	46	182/256/247	65	259	3	8	29%	8%	45	-2.7	193/266/277	84	267	6	17	27%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/281	89	260	6	21	27%	8%	54	-1.6
✕Elis Cuevas 2024 · A	19	41	37→40	51→65	45	195/270/275	80	270	3	14	27%	8%	57	-1.8	199/275/294	95	266	9	32	27%	7%	63	-1.3	188/268/283	95	252	12	43	29%	7%	56	-0.8
✕Henry Pena 2010 · A	19	37	37→40	45	49	177/263/255	78	261	4	5	31%	10%	51	-2.3	198/271/294	96	333	7	6	39%	9%	61	-1.5	204/277/339	135	307	13	8	35%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Victor Nova 2019 · A	19	38	37→40	50	55	180/281/251	71	242	4	10	25%	12%	57	-1.8	199/278/269	70	293	4	11	30%	9%	59	-1.7	171/252/236	65	268	4	11	34%	9%	39	-1.2
✕Jonathan Mejía 2024 · A	19	35	39→45	52→50	47	168/269/256	88	264	6	9	35%	10%	53	-2.1	183/267/281	98	305	9	15	39%	9%	58	-1.7	169/262/280	111	278	11	16	40%	10%	54	-0.9
✕German Ortiz 2024 · A	19	39	34→30	51→45	50	182/271/231	49	265	1	6	29%	10%	48	-2.5	198/266/260	62	292	3	5	30%	8%	51	-2.2	191/252/252	60	284	3	3	31%	7%	41	-1.0
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	37	39→45	46→45	53	177/289/262	85	262	6	6	31%	12%	63	-1.4	182/260/254	72	283	5	6	34%	9%	49	-2.4	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	37	36→45	53→55	50	177/255/242	65	229	3	14	23%	9%	44	-2.8	224/287/320	96	315	6	19	28%	7%	73	-0.6	208/269/327	119	312	11	21	35%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Darlyn De Leon 2024 · A	19	37	34→40	55	47	172/261/228	56	244	1	17	28%	8%	44	-2.8	196/273/280	84	271	6	21	28%	8%	59	-1.6	188/263/280	92	256	8	27	28%	8%	53	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps