German Ortiz
SS ACL Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKOAK | 205 | .292/.415/.399 | 2 | 3 | 62 | — | .204/.298/.282 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKOAK | 226 | .254/.327/.299 | 0 | 3 | 30 | — | .190/.243/.218 |
| 2026 | 21 | ROKOAK | 159 | .262/.304/.400 | 2 | 1 | 29 | — | .179/.215/.258 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBOAK | 269 | .198/.256/.277 | 2 | 4 | 50 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBOAK | 48 | .209/.268/.306 | 1 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBOAK | 99 | .214/.273/.319 | 1 | 2 | 62 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 47 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 256 | 383 | 333 | 716 | 77 | 385 | 28 | 15 | 335 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 225 | 177 | 44 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 249 | 394 | 316 | 710 | 68 | 324 | 20 | 18 | 330 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 180 | 143 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 356 | 259 | 615 | 42 | 295 | 22 | 17 | 293 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 168 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 292 | 415 | 399 | 813 | 107 | 364 | 18 | 16 | 373 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 126 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 294 | 252 | 546 | 36 | 316 | 28 | 10 | 256 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 100 | 90 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 300 | 370 | 356 | 726 | 56 | 380 | 19 | 10 | 333 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 145 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 304 | 400 | 704 | 138 | 346 | 25 | 4 | 308 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 47 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 171 | 277 | 244 | 520 | 73 | 261 | 34 | 11 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 225 | 190 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 57 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 158 | 276 | 200 | 476 | 42 | 210 | 25 | 12 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 180 | 157 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 166 | 260 | 191 | 451 | 25 | 249 | 31 | 11 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 181 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 204 | 298 | 282 | 579 | 77 | 277 | 26 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 126 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 238 | 205 | 443 | 26 | 302 | 37 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 100 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 250 | 234 | 484 | 32 | 284 | 28 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 215 | 258 | 473 | 79 | 275 | 36 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 47 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 171 | 277 | 244 | 520 | 73 | 280 | 34 | 11 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 47 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 256 | 383 | 333 | 716 | 77 | 385 | 28 | 15 | 335 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 225 | 190 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 57 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 158 | 276 | 200 | 476 | 42 | 219 | 25 | 12 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 225 | 177 | 44 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 40 | 45 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 249 | 394 | 316 | 710 | 68 | 324 | 20 | 18 | 330 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 180 | 157 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 166 | 260 | 191 | 451 | 25 | 252 | 31 | 11 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 180 | 143 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 217 | 356 | 259 | 615 | 42 | 295 | 22 | 17 | 293 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 181 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 204 | 298 | 282 | 579 | 77 | 278 | 26 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 168 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 292 | 415 | 399 | 813 | 107 | 364 | 18 | 16 | 373 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 211 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 185 | 239 | 213 | 452 | 28 | 287 | 33 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 226 | 201 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 54 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 327 | 299 | 626 | 45 | 347 | 24 | 10 | 290 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 215 | 258 | 473 | 79 | 280 | 36 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 145 | 38 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 262 | 304 | 400 | 704 | 138 | 346 | 25 | 4 | 308 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 47 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 171 | 277 | 244 | 520 | 73 | 261 | 34 | 11 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 225 | 192 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 57 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 156 | 276 | 198 | 474 | 42 | 210 | 25 | 12 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 180 | 158 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 165 | 260 | 190 | 450 | 25 | 249 | 31 | 11 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 179 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 298 | 285 | 582 | 78 | 277 | 26 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 209 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 187 | 239 | 215 | 454 | 29 | 294 | 33 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 215 | 258 | 473 | 79 | 275 | 36 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 205 | 179 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 53 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 298 | 285 | 582 | 78 | 277 | 26 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 226 | 209 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 187 | 239 | 215 | 454 | 29 | 294 | 33 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 151 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 215 | 258 | 473 | 79 | 275 | 36 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 269 | 248 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 73 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 256 | 277 | 533 | 80 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 243 | 50 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | OAK | 34% | 139 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 262 | 295 | 558 | 92 | 269 | 27 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 46% | 214 | 196 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 268 | 309 | 576 | 101 | 272 | 27 | 7 | 261 | 62 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 52% | 276 | 252 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 72 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 211 | 272 | 318 | 589 | 107 | 273 | 26 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 324 | 296 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 84 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 324 | 598 | 111 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 346 | 316 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 90 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 213 | 276 | 325 | 601 | 112 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 69 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 58% | 355 | 324 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 93 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 274 | 321 | 595 | 110 | 273 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | OAK | 34% | 48 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 268 | 306 | 574 | 97 | 279 | 27 | 6 | 260 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 46% | 99 | 91 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 273 | 319 | 593 | 105 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 267 | 62 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 52% | 143 | 131 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 277 | 328 | 605 | 111 | 282 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 66 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 176 | 160 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 280 | 334 | 614 | 115 | 283 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 68 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 188 | 171 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 281 | 336 | 617 | 116 | 283 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 69 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 58% | 207 | 189 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 279 | 331 | 611 | 114 | 283 | 26 | 7 | 275 | 68 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 861 | 787 | 170 | 36 | 5 | 14 | 59 | 225 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 216 | 278 | 328 | 605 | 112 | 283 | 26 | 7 | 273 | 55 | -34 | +1 | -0 | +9 | +19 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 129 | 27 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 170 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 217 | 279 | 332 | 611 | 114 | 284 | 26 | 7 | 273 | 55 | -26 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2789 | 2529 | 500 | 90 | 15 | 32 | 210 | 772 | 28 | 45 | 10 | 198 | 267 | 283 | 550 | 85 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -72 | +2 | -1 | +19 | +38 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 49 | 180 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 197 | 267 | 278 | 545 | 81 | 269 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -27 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Athletics · 159 PAwOBA .302 → .211 (−90)K% 25.2% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 2.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.89% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.038 | ×0.975 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.038 | ×0.975 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.038 | ×0.975 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 1.45% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .302 → .211; ISO .138 → .092; BABIP .346 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AStockton Ports · 126 PAwOBA .250 → .206 (−45)K% 27.8% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.32% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 25.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .250 → .206; ISO .036 → .029; BABIP .316 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 100 PAwOBA .325 → .220 (−105)K% 19.0% → 27.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.00% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 27.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.99% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 23.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 4.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .325 → .220; ISO .056 → .035; BABIP .380 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 205 PAwOBA .364 → .260 (−104)K% 18.0% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.05% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.61% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.48% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 21.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.63% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | ×1.001 | ×0.995 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.39% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .364 → .260; ISO .107 → .079; BABIP .364 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Athletics · 180 PAwOBA .288 → .214 (−74)K% 21.7% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.67% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.22% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.04% | ÷0.974 | ×0.820 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 21.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.051 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .288 → .214; ISO .042 → .030; BABIP .295 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Athletics · 225 PAwOBA .329 → .224 (−105)K% 20.0% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.78% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 12.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.52% | ÷1.004 | ×0.680 | ×0.966 | ×1.008 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.952 | ×0.600 | ×0.966 | ×1.008 | 2.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | ×0.966 | ×1.008 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .329 → .224; ISO .068 → .043; BABIP .324 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Athletics · 47 PAwOBA .328 → .222 (−106)K% 27.7% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.66% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 21.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 2.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .222; ISO .077 → .046; BABIP .385 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).