Rafael Ramirez Jr.
SS Fredericksburg Nationals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | AWSH | 278 | .183/.302/.306 | 4 | 7 | 28 | — | .138/.225/.227 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKWSH | 47 | .171/.383/.257 | 0 | 1 | 34 | — | .152/.277/.224 |
| 2026 | 21 | AWSH | 342 | .271/.424/.450 | 7 | 5 | 96 | — | .226/.344/.368 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBWSH | 452 | .212/.316/.329 | 7 | 8 | 86 | 0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 23 | MLBWSH | 116 | .217/.320/.341 | 2 | 2 | 91 | 0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 24 | MLBWSH | 202 | .220/.322/.350 | 4 | 4 | 93 | 0.5 |
Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 44
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | — | 200 | 170 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 34 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 247 | 360 | 365 | 725 | 118 | 299 | 17 | 12 | 333 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 190 | 136 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 250 | 457 | 426 | 884 | 176 | 375 | 28 | 26 | 401 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 235 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 95 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 183 | 302 | 306 | 608 | 123 | 281 | 34 | 14 | 280 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 250 | 472 | 125 | 182 | 28 | 11 | 218 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | — | 29 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 211 | 483 | 263 | 746 | 53 | 364 | 28 | 31 | 380 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 269 | 73 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 64 | 76 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 271 | 424 | 450 | 873 | 178 | 351 | 22 | 19 | 393 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 200 | 177 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 158 | 255 | 232 | 487 | 73 | 196 | 20 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 190 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 77 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 155 | 303 | 245 | 548 | 90 | 282 | 41 | 16 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 247 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 125 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 138 | 225 | 227 | 452 | 89 | 250 | 45 | 10 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 235 | 402 | 118 | 159 | 39 | 6 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Nationals | — | 29 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 174 | 345 | 217 | 562 | 43 | 292 | 41 | 17 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 288 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 103 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 226 | 344 | 368 | 712 | 142 | 316 | 30 | 13 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 200 | 177 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 158 | 255 | 232 | 487 | 73 | 200 | 20 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL CLE Red | — | 200 | 170 | 42 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 34 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 247 | 360 | 365 | 725 | 118 | 299 | 17 | 12 | 333 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 190 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 77 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 155 | 303 | 245 | 548 | 90 | 282 | 41 | 16 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 190 | 136 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 54 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 250 | 457 | 426 | 884 | 176 | 375 | 28 | 26 | 401 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 247 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 125 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 138 | 225 | 227 | 452 | 89 | 254 | 45 | 10 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 235 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 95 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 183 | 302 | 306 | 608 | 123 | 281 | 34 | 14 | 280 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 47 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 128 | 277 | 205 | 482 | 77 | 250 | 40 | 15 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 47 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 171 | 383 | 257 | 640 | 86 | 273 | 28 | 23 | 318 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 288 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 103 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 226 | 344 | 368 | 712 | 142 | 326 | 30 | 13 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 269 | 73 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 64 | 76 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 271 | 424 | 450 | 873 | 178 | 351 | 22 | 19 | 393 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Red | — | 200 | 175 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 160 | 255 | 234 | 489 | 74 | 196 | 20 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 190 | 155 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 77 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 155 | 303 | 245 | 548 | 90 | 282 | 41 | 16 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 248 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 125 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 137 | 225 | 226 | 451 | 89 | 250 | 45 | 10 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 47 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 128 | 277 | 205 | 482 | 77 | 241 | 40 | 15 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 287 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 103 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 226 | 344 | 369 | 713 | 143 | 316 | 30 | 13 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 278 | 248 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 125 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 137 | 225 | 226 | 451 | 89 | 250 | 45 | 10 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 47 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 128 | 277 | 205 | 482 | 77 | 241 | 40 | 15 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Fredericksburg Nationals | — | 342 | 287 | 65 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 103 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 226 | 344 | 369 | 713 | 143 | 316 | 30 | 13 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | WSH | 0% | 452 | 390 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 115 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 212 | 316 | 329 | 645 | 117 | 277 | 25 | 12 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | WSH | 43% | 269 | 232 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 67 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 217 | 320 | 343 | 662 | 126 | 278 | 25 | 12 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | WSH | 58% | 349 | 301 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 86 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 220 | 322 | 352 | 674 | 132 | 280 | 25 | 12 | 306 | 93 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | WSH | 65% | 390 | 337 | 75 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 45 | 95 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 222 | 323 | 356 | 679 | 135 | 281 | 24 | 12 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | WSH | 68% | 414 | 358 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 101 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 322 | 359 | 681 | 136 | 281 | 24 | 12 | 309 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | WSH | 68% | 425 | 369 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 103 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 223 | 321 | 359 | 680 | 136 | 281 | 24 | 11 | 308 | 95 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | WSH | 68% | 425 | 369 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 104 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 221 | 320 | 354 | 674 | 133 | 280 | 24 | 11 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | WSH | 66% | 416 | 362 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 47 | 103 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 219 | 317 | 348 | 665 | 129 | 279 | 25 | 11 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | WSH | 71% | 404 | 351 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 46 | 102 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 216 | 313 | 341 | 654 | 125 | 278 | 25 | 11 | 298 | 88 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | WSH | 75% | 388 | 338 | 71 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 99 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 212 | 309 | 331 | 640 | 119 | 275 | 26 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -7 | -1 | -3 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB MLE | WSH | 77% | 368 | 320 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 41 | 96 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 207 | 303 | 319 | 622 | 112 | 271 | 26 | 11 | 285 | 79 | -9 | -4 | -4 | +4 | +8 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | WSH | 43% | 116 | 100 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 217 | 320 | 341 | 661 | 125 | 278 | 25 | 12 | 302 | 91 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | WSH | 58% | 202 | 174 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 220 | 322 | 350 | 672 | 130 | 280 | 25 | 12 | 306 | 93 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | WSH | 65% | 253 | 219 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 322 | 355 | 678 | 133 | 281 | 25 | 11 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | WSH | 68% | 282 | 244 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 69 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 322 | 358 | 680 | 135 | 281 | 24 | 12 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | WSH | 68% | 289 | 251 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 70 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 321 | 358 | 679 | 135 | 281 | 24 | 11 | 308 | 95 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | WSH | 68% | 289 | 251 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 71 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 221 | 319 | 353 | 673 | 132 | 280 | 25 | 11 | 305 | 93 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | WSH | 66% | 276 | 240 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 69 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 317 | 347 | 664 | 128 | 279 | 25 | 11 | 302 | 91 | -3 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | WSH | 71% | 288 | 251 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 216 | 313 | 340 | 653 | 124 | 278 | 25 | 11 | 298 | 88 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | WSH | 75% | 290 | 253 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 212 | 309 | 330 | 639 | 118 | 275 | 26 | 11 | 292 | 84 | -6 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB CTX | WSH | 77% | 283 | 247 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 207 | 303 | 318 | 621 | 111 | 271 | 26 | 11 | 285 | 79 | -7 | -3 | -3 | +3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2568 | 2230 | 483 | 108 | 9 | 51 | 292 | 640 | 27 | 37 | 25 | 217 | 315 | 342 | 656 | 125 | 279 | 25 | 11 | 301 | 84 | -30 | -3 | -8 | +28 | +56 | 4.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 564 | 122 | 27 | 2 | 13 | 74 | 162 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 216 | 315 | 340 | 655 | 124 | 278 | 25 | 11 | 301 | 84 | -8 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5115 | 4423 | 921 | 211 | 26 | 92 | 592 | 1374 | 62 | 90 | 58 | 208 | 310 | 330 | 640 | 122 | 278 | 27 | 12 | 292 | 84 | -47 | -3 | -10 | +43 | +88 | 7.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 562 | 117 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 75 | 175 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 208 | 310 | 331 | 641 | 123 | 278 | 27 | 12 | 292 | 84 | -8 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 342 PAwOBA .386 → .310 (−75)K% 22.2% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 13.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 10.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×1.015 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.95% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .386 → .310; ISO .178 → .145; BABIP .351 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 29 PAwOBA .373 → .256 (−117)K% 27.6% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.59% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.03% | ÷1.012 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 18.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.946 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 23.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.138 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.929 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.328 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .373 → .256; ISO .053 → .034; BABIP .364 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFredericksburg Nationals · 18 PAwOBA .213 → .158 (−55)K% 27.8% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 8.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 7.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .158; ISO .125 → .092; BABIP .182 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 278 PAwOBA .277 → .209 (−68)K% 34.2% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.17% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 44.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.03% | ÷1.044 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.14% | ÷1.024 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.045 | 15.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷0.907 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.045 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.43% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×1.045 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.078 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 105, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 108, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .277 → .209; ISO .123 → .093; BABIP .281 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Guardians · 190 PAwOBA .397 → .266 (−131)K% 28.4% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.42% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.32% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 16.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.61% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.967 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.925 | ×0.720 | ×0.955 | ×1.022 | 2.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.88% | ÷1.349 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.88% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 170, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .397 → .266; ISO .176 → .115; BABIP .375 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL CLE Red · 200 PAwOBA .325 → .217 (−108)K% 17.0% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.00% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.002 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.06% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.41% | ÷0.987 | ×0.600 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 2.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.187 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 103, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .325 → .217; ISO .118 → .068; BABIP .299 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).