Narciso Polanco

2B Bowling Green Hot Rods
Age 22 L/R 5'10" / 161 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2427ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ATB415.226/.324/.33652643—.180/.254/.273
202520ATB524.228/.350/.32043559—.200/.294/.276
202621A+/INTL2 orgs533.244/.334/.36992755—.206/.265/.310
2027PROJMLE22MLBTB1.203/.274/.2940061-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB23MLBTB169.209/.281/.3133568-0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBTB248.213/.286/.3264873-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Z-Con%76
Speed72
K%64
Whiff%62
Chase%57
BB%44
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 85%
CompsKier Meredith (age 22) · Jason Denham (age 22) · Cam Coursey (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†61
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .274 / .294
PA1
HR0
K%26
BB%8
BABIP267
ISO79
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Arb-1$0.2M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-1.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Rays — 218175 44842 36524 115 251391377768 126339 2417 349 42 — — — — — —
202318 ROKFCL Rays — 180157 33231 19352 33 210303280584 70260 1911 270 22 — — — — — —
202419 ACharleston RiverDogs — 415354 802025 50953 267 226324336661 110292 2312 300 43 — — — — — —
202520 ACharleston RiverDogs — 524435 991664 73829 3515 228350320670 92268 1614 309 59 — — — — — —
202621 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 505439 1112349 551084 2510 253341385726 132314 2111 325 58 — — — — — —
202621 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 2824 2000 470 20 8321483298 118 2514 164 -3 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 218188 30431 23654 115 160265229494 69228 3011 230 42 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 180163 26121 13502 33 160230209439 49219 287 200 22 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 415373 671625 341313 267 180254273527 94250 328 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 524456 911653 521119 3515 200294276570 77245 2110 256 59 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 505462 951838 331414 2510 206265310574 104273 287 254 58 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 218188 30431 23654 115 160265229494 69232 3011 230 42 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Rays — 218175 44842 36524 115 251391377768 126339 2417 349 42 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 180163 26121 13502 33 160230209439 49219 287 200 22 — — — — — —
202318 ROK RAWFCL Rays — 180157 33231 19352 33 210303280584 70260 1911 270 22 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 415373 671625 341313 267 180254273527 94258 328 232 43 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 415354 802025 50953 267 226324336661 110292 2312 300 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 524456 911653 521119 3515 200294276570 77253 2110 256 59 — — — — — —
202520 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 524435 991664 73829 3515 228350320670 92268 1614 309 59 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 533488 1011948 351494 2710 207266311577 105278 287 254 58 — — — — — —
202621 A+ RAW2 teams — 533463 1132349 591154 2710 244334369703 125304 2211 316 58 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 218189 30431 23654 115 159265228493 69228 3011 230 42 — — — — — —
202318 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 180163 26121 13502 33 160230209439 49219 287 200 22 — — — — — —
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 415375 671625 341313 267 179254272526 93250 328 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 524458 911653 521119 3515 199294275569 76245 2110 256 59 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 533489 1011948 351494 2710 207266311576 104273 287 254 58 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 415375 671625 341313 267 179254272526 93250 328 232 43 — — — — — —
202520 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 524458 911653 521119 3515 199294275569 76245 2110 256 59 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLE2 teams — 533489 1011948 351494 2710 207266311576 104273 287 254 58 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLETB 0% 615555 1122247 491586 197 201272293565 92264 268 258 61 -29 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXTB 0% 11 0000 000 00 203274294568 91267 00 259 61 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLETB 35% 490443 911837 401234 156 207279312592 105266 258 269 68 -19 +1 +0 +2 +11 -0.6
202924 MLB MLETB 46% 537483 1021949 441335 176 212284325610 114268 258 276 73 -17 +1 +0 +2 +12 -0.3
203025 MLB MLETB 52% 560503 10820411 471375 176 214287333620 119270 248 280 76 -16 +1 +0 +2 +12 -0.1
203126 MLB MLETB 54% 578520 11221411 481415 177 216289337626 121271 248 282 77 -16 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.0
203227 MLB MLETB 54% 582523 11422412 491425 167 216290338627 122271 248 283 78 -15 +0 +0 +2 +13 -0.0
203328 MLB MLETB 54% 576518 11021311 481425 146 214288333621 119270 258 280 76 -17 +0 -1 +2 +12 -0.2
203429 MLB MLETB 58% 562505 10620310 471405 115 212285327611 115269 258 277 73 -18 +0 -1 +2 +12 -0.5
202823 MLB CTXTB 35% 169151 32613 14422 52 209281313594 104269 258 270 68 -6 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.2
202924 MLB CTXTB 46% 248224 48924 20612 83 213286326612 112272 258 277 73 -8 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
203025 MLB CTXTB 52% 289260 551025 24713 93 216289333622 117273 258 281 76 -8 +1 +0 +1 +6 -0.0
203126 MLB CTXTB 54% 314282 611126 26773 94 217291337627 119274 258 283 77 -9 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.0
203227 MLB CTXTB 54% 316283 611126 27773 94 218291338629 120274 249 284 78 -8 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.0
203328 MLB CTXTB 54% 313281 611126 26773 83 216289333622 117273 258 281 76 -9 +0 -0 +1 +7 -0.1
203429 MLB CTXTB 58% 324291 621126 27813 73 213286327613 113272 258 277 73 -10 +0 -1 +1 +7 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19731772 380691336 16448619 5522 214288329617 115273 258 280 66 -59 +2 -1 +7 +43 -0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650584 12523412 541606 187 214287329616 115272 258 280 66 -19 +1 -0 +2 +14 -0.3
Career— MLE — 59655352 10952044291 497151858 21686 205279309589 105266 258 266 66 -128 +4 -2 +15 +89 -2.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650583 12022510 541656 249 206280312592 106267 258 266 66 -20 +1 -0 +2 +14 -0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 505 PAwOBA .318 → .254 (−64)K% 21.4% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.39%÷1.000×1.310——28.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.89%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0126.61%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.770—×1.0120.62%
Singles /BIP22.66%÷1.000×0.870×1.016×1.01220.27%
Doubles /BIP6.95%÷1.000×0.780×1.016×1.0125.57%
Triples /BIP1.21%÷1.000×0.850×1.016×1.0121.06%
Home runs /BIP2.72%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0122.42%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .318 → .254; ISO .132 → .111; BABIP .314 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 524 PAwOBA .306 → .256 (−49)K% 15.6% → 21.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.65%÷1.006×1.360——21.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.93%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0159.91%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.780—×1.0151.36%
Singles /BIP20.68%÷1.013×0.920×0.992×1.01518.91%
Doubles /BIP4.53%÷0.850×0.830×0.992×1.0154.46%
Triples /BIP1.70%÷1.121×0.910×0.992×1.0151.39%
Home runs /BIP1.13%÷1.159×0.800—×1.0150.79%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .306 → .256; ISO .092 → .078; BABIP .268 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 415 PAwOBA .295 → .232 (−62)K% 22.9% → 31.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.89%÷0.985×1.360——31.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.05%÷1.047×0.690—×1.0308.18%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.780—×1.0300.58%
Singles /BIP20.46%÷1.071×0.920×0.983×1.03017.80%
Doubles /BIP7.72%÷1.017×0.830×0.983×1.0306.38%
Triples /BIP0.77%÷1.099×0.910×0.983×1.0300.65%
Home runs /BIP1.93%÷0.824×0.800—×1.0301.93%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .295 → .232; ISO .110 → .094; BABIP .292 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 180 PAwOBA .267 → .200 (−67)K% 19.4% → 28.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.44%÷0.999×1.440——28.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.56%÷0.948×0.620—×1.0086.95%
HBP% /PA1.11%—×0.720—×1.0080.81%
Singles /BIP22.13%÷0.996×0.820×1.050×1.00819.28%
Doubles /BIP1.64%÷1.020×0.720×1.050×1.0081.22%
Triples /BIP2.46%÷1.150×0.720×1.050×1.0081.63%
Home runs /BIP0.82%÷0.911×0.780—×1.0080.71%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .267 → .200; ISO .070 → .049; BABIP .260 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Rays · 218 PAwOBA .346 → .230 (−116)K% 23.9% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.85%÷0.981×1.220——29.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.51%÷1.088×0.700—×1.00810.71%
HBP% /PA1.83%—×0.700—×1.0081.29%
Singles /BIP24.39%÷0.957×0.680×1.001×1.00817.48%
Doubles /BIP6.50%÷1.114×0.600×1.001×1.0083.53%
Triples /BIP3.25%÷0.900×0.600×1.001×1.0082.19%
Home runs /BIP1.63%÷1.065×0.470—×1.0080.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 91, 2B 123, 3B 80, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .346 → .230; ISO .126 → .073; BABIP .339 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .