Narciso Polanco — OGILVIE

Narciso Polanco2B Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 21 L/R 5'10" / 161 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION328 act + 218 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .277 / .314

PA218

HR3

SB9

K%27

BB%8

BABIP276

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$15M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	218	192	35	5	3	1	19	78	4	11	5	182	270	255	525	73	293	36	9	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	218	175	44	8	4	2	36	52	4	11	5	251	391	377	768	126	339	24	17	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	180	163	26	1	2	1	13	50	2	3	3	160	230	209	439	49	219	28	7	200	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	180	157	33	2	3	1	19	35	2	3	3	210	303	280	584	70	260	19	11	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	415	378	63	15	1	7	29	139	3	26	7	167	232	267	499	101	238	33	7	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	415	354	80	20	2	5	50	95	3	26	7	226	324	336	661	110	292	23	12	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	524	460	92	19	4	3	48	115	9	35	15	200	288	278	566	78	256	22	9	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	524	435	99	16	6	4	73	82	9	35	15	228	350	320	670	92	268	16	14	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A+	TB	—	328	298	62	11	4	6	23	92	3	17	5	208	272	332	604	124	276	28	7	259	56	-16	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.4
YTD	21	A+	TB	—	328	285	69	13	4	7	35	69	3	17	5	242	330	389	720	147	292	21	11	320	103	+1	+1	+0	+1	+9	1.3
ROS	21	A+	TB	0%	218	197	41	8	2	3	17	58	2	9	3	207	277	314	591	106	267	27	8	262	59	-10	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.3
ROS	21	MLB	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						271	0	0	256	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	21	A+	TB	—	329	299	62	11	4	6	23	92	3	17	5	207	271	331	602	124	275	28	7	259	56	-16	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.4
TOT	21	A+	TB	—	546	495	103	19	6	9	40	150	5	26	8	208	274	325	599	117	276	27	7	260	57	-26	+2	+0	+2	+15	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TB	35%	570	515	109	21	5	10	45	144	5	18	6	212	281	330	612	118	270	25	8	275	69	-20	+1	+0	+2	+16	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	TB	49%	597	538	117	22	5	12	48	147	6	18	6	217	289	344	633	126	272	25	8	284	76	-16	+1	+0	+2	+17	0.4
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	615	554	123	23	5	14	50	149	6	18	6	222	293	357	651	135	274	24	8	290	80	-14	+1	+0	+2	+17	0.7
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	627	564	125	23	5	15	52	151	6	18	6	222	294	360	654	138	274	24	8	294	83	-12	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.9
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	634	570	127	24	5	15	53	152	6	18	6	223	296	361	657	139	274	24	8	295	84	-12	+1	+0	+2	+18	1.0
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	634	569	127	24	5	15	54	153	6	18	6	223	297	362	659	139	274	24	9	295	84	-12	+1	+0	+2	+18	1.0
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	629	564	125	23	5	15	54	152	6	16	5	222	296	360	656	138	273	24	9	294	83	-12	+1	-1	+2	+18	0.9
2027	22	MLB	TB	35%	197	178	38	7	2	3	15	50	2	6	2	213	282	326	608	112	273	25	8	269	64	-8	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	TB	49%	290	262	57	10	3	6	23	71	3	9	3	218	288	347	636	130	276	24	8	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2029	24	MLB	TB	53%	325	292	65	12	3	7	27	79	3	10	3	223	295	356	651	134	277	24	8	284	76	-9	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2030	25	MLB	TB	55%	343	308	70	13	3	8	29	82	3	10	3	227	300	367	667	140	278	24	8	287	78	-8	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.3
2031	26	MLB	TB	56%	353	316	71	13	3	8	30	85	4	10	3	225	300	361	661	136	278	24	8	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.4
2032	27	MLB	TB	55%	349	313	70	13	3	8	30	84	3	10	3	224	298	361	659	137	278	24	9	289	79	-8	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.4
2033	28	MLB	TB	55%	344	308	69	12	3	8	30	83	3	9	3	224	299	360	660	136	277	24	9	288	78	-8	+1	-0	+1	+10	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2202	1978	440	80	20	48	184	534	21	64	20	222	295	356	651	133	278	24	8	285	76	-60	+5	-0	+8	+62	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	130	24	6	14	54	158	6	19	6	223	295	356	651	134	279	24	8	285	76	-18	+1	-0	+2	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5861	5264	1110	208	47	111	482	1488	61	208	74	211	285	331	616	121	270	25	8	276	69	-202	+12	-1	+21	+166	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	123	23	5	12	53	165	7	23	8	211	284	329	613	118	270	25	8	276	69	-22	+1	-0	+2	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	218	175	44	8	4	2	36	52	4	11	5	251	391	377	768	126	339	24	17	349	125	+6	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	180	157	33	2	3	1	19	35	2	3	3	210	303	280	584	70	260	19	11	270	65	-7	-1	—	—	+5	-0.3
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	415	354	80	20	2	5	50	95	3	26	7	226	324	336	661	110	292	23	12	300	88	-6	+2	—	—	+12	0.8
2025	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	524	435	99	16	6	4	73	82	9	35	15	228	350	320	670	92	268	16	14	309	95	-3	+1	—	—	+15	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,202	50	64	221	291	356	+8	+4	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	15	19	221	291	356	+2.4	+1.2	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Narciso Polanco (OGILVIE)	21	40	25	55	55	208/274/325	117	276	9	26	27%	7%	57	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	35→30	54→60	52	209/291/266	57	279	3	25	24%	10%	58	-1.2	222/308/290	68	293	2	20	22%	10%	71	-0.3	235/336/301	66	302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Gorge Munoz 2017 · A	21	43	38→40	50→55	42	205/260/282	78	258	5	17	22%	5%	48	-1.9	205/257/290	85	298	7	10	32%	5%	49	-1.8	185/231/261	77	287	9	9	37%	3%	28	-0.8
✕Thomas Milone 2016 · A	21	43→44	36→45	50→55	39	204/250/268	65	283	3	14	28%	5%	40	-2.4	197/250/267	70	287	3	12	31%	6%	40	-2.4	243/298/369	125	340	8	17	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Elias Arias 2015 · A	21	49	36→30	47→55	49	229/297/294	65	290	4	16	21%	8%	67	-0.5	201/258/275	74	289	5	11	30%	7%	45	-2.1	161/210/245	83	254	7	9	38%	5%	13	-0.9
✕Richard Rodriguez 2014 · A	21	42	33→30	48→50	48	196/255/237	41	245	1	14	20%	7%	34	-2.8	237/286/279	42	293	1	10	18%	6%	56	-1.3	240/291/258	18	289	0	11	16%	7%	52	-0.5
✕Jason Denham 2008 · A	22	44→45	38→40	51→55	44	211/269/283	72	288	6	16	28%	7%	52	-1.6	224/284/319	95	288	9	18	24%	7%	68	-0.5	227/292/316	89	272	11	27	20%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Gerson Manzanillo 2007 · A	21	47	36→30	58→50	43	221/268/291	70	277	2	16	20%	5%	53	-1.5	211/255/278	67	290	3	12	27%	5%	43	-2.2	253/283/310	57	297	3	13	15%	3%	59	-0.5
✕Brent Keys 2012 · A	22	45→55	35→30	51→50	47	213/283/271	58	282	3	14	24%	8%	55	-1.4	268/325/334	66	306	3	12	12%	7%	89	+0.9	277/340/332	55	310	2	12	10%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Erick Brito 2023 · A	21	45→43	35→30	52→55	47	212/278/275	63	281	2	16	24%	8%	54	-1.4	210/271/275	65	269	3	20	22%	6%	51	-1.7	214/271/281	67	280	3	23	23%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2008 · A	22	48	38→40	51→55	46	223/296/307	84	281	4	17	21%	7%	70	-0.3	232/290/313	81	279	5	16	18%	6%	69	-0.4	256/309/334	78	290	5	21	13%	5%	81	+0.1
✕Ayendy Perez 2015 · A	21	49	34→30	57→60	47	226/283/285	60	284	1	23	20%	7%	58	-1.2	225/277/281	56	316	1	23	27%	7%	54	-1.4	228/281/275	46	330	0	29	29%	7%	52	-0.8
✕Alfredo Angarita 2018 · A	21	41	35→30	51→55	49	194/273/255	61	268	2	16	27%	9%	47	-1.9	202/266/258	56	293	2	10	29%	7%	44	-2.1	195/259/238	43	283	1	9	29%	7%	33	-1.3
✕Juan Mosquera 2009 · A	21	43	33→30	46→55	52	197/290/240	43	280	1	14	27%	10%	51	-1.7	202/267/260	58	263	3	9	22%	8%	45	-2.1	183/242/211	28	222	0	9	16%	7%	19	-1.0
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2014 · A	21	46	36→40	57→65	50	215/283/286	72	264	2	25	19%	8%	59	-1.1	210/290/278	68	276	2	23	22%	9%	60	-1.0	196/288/254	58	259	1	30	22%	10%	50	-0.6
✕Erlin Cerda 2015 · A	21	47	36→40	56→55	51	218/295/297	79	272	1	16	19%	8%	67	-0.5	204/264/277	73	282	2	11	26%	6%	48	-1.9	164/205/208	44	235	0	7	29%	3%	1	-1.1