Alan Carpinteiro

P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 163 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKSEA	11	5	37	2.17	2.97	21.0%	10.2%	—	K 14.3% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.03
2026	19	ROKSEA	19	0	21	8.02	6.24	20.4%	25.7%	—	K 13.8% · BB 32.1% · FIP 7.35
2027PROJ	20	MLBSEA	15	0	16	5.99	5.99	19.3%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSEA	16	0	17	5.62	5.48	20.4%	16.8%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMichael Perez (age 21) · Elison Joseph (age 20) · Over Galue (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA5.99

FIP5.99

K%19.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-0.7%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	14.3%	12.7%	1.6%	1.0%	2.17	4.03	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	14.3%	12.7%	1.6%	1.0%	2.17	4.03	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	5	37	157	33	16	1	45%	3.4	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	0.6%	2.17	2.97	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	32.1%	-18.2%	2.5%	8.02	7.35	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	32.1%	-18.2%	2.5%	8.02	7.35	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	19	0	21	113	23	29	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	25.7%	-5.3%	1.8%	8.02	6.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SEA	15	0	16	68	13	14	2	0%	1.1	19.3%	20.0%	-0.7%	2.9%	5.99	5.99	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SEA	34	0	35	149	30	25	4	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.8%	3.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.48	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	SEA	16	0	17	72	15	12	2	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.8%	3.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	17	73	15	12	2	0%	1.0	20.4%	16.8%	3.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	138	23	0%	1.1	20.4%	16.8%	3.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.10	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		30	5	59	270	38	56	4	17%	2.0	14.1%	20.8%	-6.7%	1.6%	4.30	5.42	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	17	200	920	130	192	15	17%	2.0	14.1%	20.8%	-6.7%	1.6%	4.30	5.42	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alan Carpinteiro (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.99	19.3%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.48	20.4%	3.5%	35	-0.51	—	—	—
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	88
Elison Joseph R 2021 · 5.31 FIP	20	SU	5.31	17.4%	19.2%	2.3%	.254	4.55	23.5%	6.8%	133	-0.76	3.32	217	88
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	86
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	85
Daniel Lloyd R 2021 · 5.40 FIP	20	SU	5.40	20.4%	22.4%	2.2%	.367	4.15	18.0%	8.5%	226	-1.25	3.59	319	85
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84
Ismael Aquino R 2019 · 4.89 FIP	20	SU	4.89	17.0%	16.5%	2.1%	.354	5.58	14.1%	-1.5%	14	+0.69	3.99	122	83
Angel Reyes R 2018 · 4.91 FIP	20	SU	4.91	16.5%	19.4%	1.4%	.328	4.51	17.1%	5.7%	119	-0.40	3.99	308	83
Ryan Harbin R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	20	SU	5.47	14.4%	18.9%	2.2%	.317	4.18	24.0%	8.1%	156	-1.29	3.82	185	83
Adrian Rodriguez R 2021 · 6.92 FIP	20	SU	6.92	23.1%	34.0%	2.7%	.368	5.46	23.1%	-1.6%	93	-1.46	2.43	148	83
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	83
Erian Rodriguez R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SU	5.51	16.2%	19.8%	2.3%	.378	4.16	16.2%	3.6%	241	-1.35	3.81	287	82
Samuel Fabian R 2023 · 6.61 FIP	20	SU	6.61	16.8%	27.4%	2.7%	.352	4.33	17.2%	4.8%	64	-2.28	4.21	120	82
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	82
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	82
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	20.0%	17.8%	1.12	5.73
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*