David Hernandez

P DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 190 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	3	2	31.50	22.10	14.3%	7.1%	—	K 14.3% · BB 7.1% · FIP 14.56
2026	20	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	20	24	10.50	7.14	20.0%	21.5%	—	K 13.6% · BB 26.9% · FIP 8.32
2027PROJ	21	MLBTOR	13	14	6.01	6.01	20.1%	20.0%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTOR	10	11	5.60	5.44	21.4%	16.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · Michael Perez (age 21) · Jackson Rose (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.01

FIP6.01

K%20.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	3	0	2	14	2	1	3	0%	0.7	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	21.4%	31.50	14.56	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	3	0	2	14	2	1	3	0%	0.7	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	21.4%	31.50	14.56	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	3	0	2	14	2	1	3	0%	0.7	14.3%	7.1%	7.1%	21.4%	31.50	22.10	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	24	130	26	28	5	0%	1.2	13.6%	26.9%	-13.3%	5.4%	10.50	8.32	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	24	130	26	28	5	0%	1.2	13.6%	26.9%	-13.3%	5.4%	10.50	8.32	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	20	0	24	130	26	28	5	0%	1.2	20.0%	21.5%	-1.5%	3.8%	10.50	7.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TOR	13	0	14	59	12	12	2	0%	1.1	20.1%	20.0%	0.1%	3.1%	6.01	6.01	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	22	0	23	96	21	16	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.44	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	11	46	10	8	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	47	10	8	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.06	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	143	18	0%	1.1	21.4%	16.6%	4.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		23	0	26	144	20	36	10	0%	1.1	13.7%	25.0%	-11.3%	6.9%	12.12	8.92	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		177	0	200	1108	151	277	77	0%	1.1	13.7%	25.0%	-11.3%	6.9%	12.12	8.92	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.01	20.1%	20.0%	3.1%	—	5.44	21.4%	4.8%	23	-0.57	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	91
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	90
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	90
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	89
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	88
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	86
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	487	86
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	85
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	85
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	84
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	84
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	84
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	84
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	83
Walker Brockhouse R 2021 · 6.65 FIP	22	SU	6.65	20.2%	19.7%	5.0%	.265	4.69	19.3%	3.2%	111	-1.96	4.24	126	83
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	83