Aaron Walton

OF Lake County Captains

Age 23 R/R 6'4" / 218 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #96MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP48ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	71	.238/.324/.397	1	6	45	—	.185/.254/.323
2026	22	AACLE	201	.259/.382/.482	7	12	101	—	.225/.327/.410
2026	22	A+CLE	368	.275/.399/.503	15	21	99	—	.228/.333/.405
2027PROJ0% MLB	23	MLBCLE	2	.225/.315/.384	0	0	99	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	24	MLBCLE	247	.228/.317/.390	7	7	101	0.5
2029PROJ62% MLB	25	MLBCLE	375	.229/.318/.393	11	10	102	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed90

wRC+85

Chase%85

ISO82

wOBA80

BB%73

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 78%

CompsMatt McLain (age 23) · Tyler Locklear (age 23) · Aaron Luna (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .315 / .384

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO154

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	201	166	43	14	1	7	26	52	7	12	0	259	382	482	864	223	330	26	13	380	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	368	302	83	22	1	15	46	98	17	21	3	275	399	503	902	228	358	27	12	398	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	201	173	39	12	1	6	19	64	7	12	0	225	327	410	737	185	305	32	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	368	316	72	18	1	12	33	124	17	21	3	228	333	405	738	177	318	34	9	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	314	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	63	15	5	1	1	7	21	1	6	1	238	324	397	721	159	341	30	10	324	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	489	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	399	728	174	324	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	569	468	126	36	2	22	72	150	24	33	3	269	393	496	889	226	348	26	13	392	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	488	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	400	729	174	313	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	71	65	12	4	1	1	5	29	1	6	1	185	254	323	577	138	301	41	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	569	488	110	30	2	17	52	188	24	33	3	225	329	400	729	174	313	33	9	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	539	471	106	24	2	16	48	149	15	15	2	224	315	385	700	161	289	28	9	314	99	-1	+2	+0	-3	+12	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	225	315	384	699	160	290	50	0	314	99	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	42%	581	509	116	26	2	18	52	158	15	16	2	227	317	391	708	164	290	27	9	317	101	+1	+2	+1	-3	+13	1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	62%	604	530	121	27	3	18	54	162	15	16	2	229	318	394	712	165	290	27	9	319	102	+1	+2	+1	-4	+13	1.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	71%	609	534	123	27	3	19	55	162	15	15	2	229	318	394	713	165	290	27	9	319	102	+1	+2	+1	-4	+13	1.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	74%	608	534	123	27	3	18	55	162	14	15	2	229	317	392	710	163	290	27	9	318	101	+1	+2	+1	-4	+13	1.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	75%	603	530	120	26	2	18	54	160	14	13	2	228	315	388	704	160	289	27	9	315	99	-0	+2	+1	-4	+13	1.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	80%	596	525	118	26	2	17	53	160	13	12	2	226	313	382	694	156	287	27	9	311	97	-2	+2	-0	-4	+13	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	84%	587	517	115	25	2	16	52	160	13	11	2	222	309	374	683	151	285	27	9	307	94	-4	+1	-1	-4	+13	0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	86%	577	510	111	24	2	15	50	159	12	9	2	218	304	364	668	146	282	28	9	301	90	-7	+1	-2	-3	+13	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	88%	488	433	91	20	1	12	42	137	10	7	2	212	298	351	648	138	277	28	9	293	84	-9	+1	-2	-3	+11	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	42%	247	217	49	11	1	7	22	67	6	7	1	228	317	390	708	163	291	27	9	317	101	+0	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.5
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	62%	375	329	75	17	1	11	34	101	9	10	1	229	318	393	712	164	291	27	9	319	102	+1	+2	+1	-2	+8	0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	71%	434	381	88	20	2	13	39	116	11	11	2	230	319	394	712	164	291	27	9	319	102	+1	+1	+1	-3	+9	1.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	74%	447	393	91	20	2	14	40	119	11	11	2	229	318	392	709	162	290	27	9	318	101	+1	+1	+1	-3	+10	1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	75%	450	397	91	20	2	13	40	120	10	10	1	228	316	388	704	159	289	27	9	315	99	-0	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	80%	478	421	96	21	2	14	43	128	11	10	1	226	313	382	694	156	288	27	9	312	97	-2	+2	-0	-3	+10	0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	84%	492	435	96	21	1	14	43	134	11	9	1	223	309	374	683	151	286	27	9	307	94	-4	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	86%	499	441	95	21	1	13	44	138	11	8	1	218	304	364	668	145	282	28	9	301	90	-6	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	88%	430	381	81	18	1	11	37	121	9	6	2	213	298	351	649	138	278	28	9	293	84	-8	+0	-2	-3	+9	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3852	3395	762	169	13	110	342	1044	89	82	12	224	312	379	691	155	289	27	9	310	97	-17	+12	-1	-23	+83	5.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	129	29	2	19	58	176	15	14	2	225	313	382	695	157	289	27	9	310	97	-3	+2	-0	-4	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6213	5456	1222	276	24	178	552	1726	155	162	23	224	313	381	694	157	291	28	9	311	97	-20	+17	+0	-33	+121	8.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	129	29	3	19	58	181	16	17	2	226	315	387	702	161	294	28	9	311	97	-2	+2	+0	-4	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Frank Isbell'01-'09 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,483 PA	6.8	4,483	13	250	248*	300*	403*	-42	+24	9.5	10.1
/162	664	2	37	-6.2	+3.6	1.4	pk7: 11
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Willie Kirkland'58-'66 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	148	52	237*	302*	437*	-37	-0	8.1	8.5
/162	664	25	9	-6.3	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.8	3,854	111	80	225	309	382	-23	+20	7.5	7.3
/162	664	19	14	-4.0	+3.4	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Chas McCormicklast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	56	37	247	321	413	+2	+14	7.3	7.3
/162	664	24	16	+0.8	+6.0	3.1	pk7: 7
#5Gus Felix'23-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,299 PA	3.5	2,299	12	28	243*	318*	371*	-13	+16	4.7	4.7
/162	664	3	8	-3.7	+4.7	1.4	pk7: 5
#6Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aaron Walton (OGILVIE)	23	30→44	35→47	60	45	222/312/381	159	289	9	9	28%	9%	99	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
✕Tyler Locklear 2024 · AA	23	48→53	51→50	53→50	46	239/324/402	162	306	18	11	27%	8%	107	+1.8	243/321/392	149	323	16	12	28%	8%	103	+1.5	245/324/392	147	326	16	13	28%	8%	102	+1.2
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	41→46	50	49→45	46	207/315/368	161	265	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	228/330/374	146	284	16	8	24%	9%	103	+1.6	228/337/371	143	283	17	6	24%	9%	103	+1.0
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	213/278/339	126	273	14	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
●Davis Schneider 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	50→55	53→50	47	209/294/363	154	302	17	13	34%	10%	86	+0.3	219/320/402	183	292	21	10	30%	12%	105	+1.7	212/323/402	190	276	23	9	30%	13%	106	+1.4
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	38→45	48→50	57→55	45	200/273/344	144	263	16	19	30%	8%	74	-0.5	218/289/354	136	286	15	17	28%	8%	82	+0.0	219/291/353	133	286	15	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	48→54	48→55	52→55	45	238/301/386	148	304	14	21	26%	7%	94	+0.9	222/284/374	152	291	16	17	28%	7%	85	+0.2	202/265/351	149	268	17	17	30%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Joe Benson 2011 · AA	23	46→52	53→55	51→50	42	231/304/411	181	319	19	16	32%	7%	101	+1.4	221/288/375	154	306	15	14	31%	7%	86	+0.3	208/274/344	136	292	12	14	31%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	46→53	52→55	52→55	44	230/294/392	162	319	20	13	33%	8%	93	+0.8	234/299/408	174	324	21	23	32%	8%	99	+1.2	228/297/401	173	313	21	27	33%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Ryan Ritter 2024 · AA	23	44→48	49→50	52→50	40	214/290/365	152	331	17	14	38%	8%	86	+0.3	231/304/361	130	324	13	14	31%	7%	90	+0.6	239/315/362	122	327	11	14	28%	7%	91	+0.4
●Ronny Simon 2023 · AA	23	39→49	52→50	56→60	39	213/257/378	165	265	21	22	29%	5%	76	-0.4	236/292/361	125	301	12	24	24%	7%	84	+0.2	273/337/383	110	340	8	30	21%	8%	103	+1.3
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5

Aaron Walton

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps