Brainerh Palacios

C DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1587ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKTB	191	.222/.342/.259	0	7	22	—	.157/.251/.187
2026	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	170	.213/.335/.333	4	3	20	—	.135/.234/.196
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBTB	280	.201/.271/.271	2	4	55	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBTB	48	.209/.280/.289	0	1	62	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBTB	117	.213/.285/.302	1	2	67	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%66

K%63

Z-Con%54

ISO52

Chase%47

BB%37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAdrian De Leon (age 19) · Alberth Palma (age 18) · Carlos Cauro (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 88 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .269 / .269

PA88

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	191	158	35	4	1	0	26	36	3	7	4	222	342	259	602	38	278	19	14	284	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	141	30	5	0	4	23	32	3	3	2	213	335	333	669	121	245	19	14	306	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	166	26	3	1	0	18	44	3	7	4	157	251	187	438	30	191	23	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	148	20	3	0	2	16	39	3	3	2	135	234	196	429	61	160	23	9	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	166	26	3	1	0	18	44	3	7	4	157	251	187	438	30	206	23	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	191	158	35	4	1	0	26	36	3	7	4	222	342	259	602	38	278	19	14	284	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	148	20	3	0	2	16	39	3	3	2	135	234	196	429	61	167	23	9	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	141	30	5	0	4	23	32	3	3	2	213	335	333	669	121	245	19	14	306	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	168	26	3	1	0	18	44	3	7	4	155	251	185	436	30	191	23	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	149	20	3	0	2	16	39	3	3	2	134	234	195	428	60	160	23	9	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	191	168	26	3	1	0	18	44	3	7	4	155	251	185	436	30	191	23	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	170	149	20	3	0	2	16	39	3	3	2	134	234	195	428	60	160	23	9	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	TB	0%	280	253	51	8	2	2	22	71	3	4	1	201	271	271	543	70	268	25	8	250	55	-15	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	TB	34%	140	126	26	4	1	1	11	35	2	2	1	207	278	287	565	81	271	25	8	259	62	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	TB	48%	241	217	45	7	1	3	19	60	3	4	1	211	283	301	584	90	273	25	8	267	67	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	TB	54%	352	317	68	11	2	5	28	86	4	6	2	215	287	312	599	97	275	24	8	273	71	-12	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	TB	57%	426	384	83	13	3	7	34	104	5	7	3	218	290	321	611	103	277	24	8	277	74	-13	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	TB	57%	445	401	88	14	3	8	36	107	5	7	3	220	293	328	621	108	278	24	8	281	76	-12	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	TB	60%	445	401	88	14	3	8	36	107	5	7	3	221	293	330	623	109	278	24	8	282	77	-12	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	TB	62%	445	401	88	14	3	8	36	107	5	7	3	220	293	330	623	110	278	24	8	282	77	-12	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	TB	63%	445	401	88	14	3	8	36	108	5	7	3	219	292	327	619	108	277	24	8	281	76	-13	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	TB	65%	445	401	87	14	2	8	36	109	5	6	3	217	290	323	612	105	276	24	8	278	74	-14	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	TB	65%	445	401	86	14	2	7	36	110	5	6	3	215	287	316	603	101	275	25	8	274	72	-15	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	TB	65%	445	402	85	14	2	7	35	112	5	5	4	212	283	308	592	96	273	25	8	269	68	-17	-1	-2	+8	+10	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	TB	34%	48	43	8	1	0	0	4	12	1	1	0	209	280	289	569	80	275	25	8	261	62	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	TB	48%	117	106	22	3	1	1	9	29	1	2	1	213	285	302	587	89	277	25	8	268	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	TB	54%	191	172	38	6	1	3	15	47	2	3	1	217	289	313	602	96	279	25	8	274	71	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	TB	57%	241	217	48	7	2	4	19	59	3	4	1	220	292	321	613	102	280	24	8	279	74	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	TB	57%	252	227	51	8	2	4	20	61	3	4	2	222	295	329	623	106	282	24	8	282	76	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	TB	60%	269	242	55	9	2	5	22	65	3	4	2	223	295	330	625	107	282	24	8	283	77	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	TB	62%	278	251	56	9	2	5	22	67	3	4	2	223	295	330	625	108	282	24	8	283	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	TB	63%	282	254	57	9	2	5	23	68	3	4	2	222	294	328	622	106	281	24	8	282	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	TB	65%	289	261	58	9	2	5	23	71	3	4	2	220	292	323	615	103	280	25	8	279	74	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	TB	65%	289	261	57	9	2	5	23	72	3	4	2	217	289	317	606	100	279	25	8	275	72	-10	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	TB	65%	289	261	56	9	2	4	23	73	3	3	2	214	285	309	594	95	277	25	8	271	68	-11	-0	-1	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2545	2295	506	79	18	41	203	624	28	37	17	220	292	324	616	104	284	25	8	278	69	-81	+1	-3	+45	+55	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	129	20	5	10	52	159	7	9	4	220	291	323	614	102	283	24	8	278	69	-21	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4723	4246	895	142	27	73	384	1150	56	75	35	211	285	309	593	98	270	24	8	270	69	-141	+1	-4	+78	+95	2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	124	20	4	10	53	158	8	10	5	212	287	312	598	99	272	24	8	270	69	-21	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 170 PAwOBA .300 → .198 (−102)K% 18.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.82%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.53%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.54%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.24%
Singles /BIP	19.27%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.996	×1.008	13.14%
Doubles /BIP	4.59%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.996	×1.008	2.76%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.996	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.67%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.74%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .300 → .198; ISO .121 → .064; BABIP .245 → .160. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Rays · 191 PAwOBA .284 → .200 (−84)K% 18.8% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.85%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.61%	÷1.020	×0.700	—	×1.022	9.55%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.12%
Singles /BIP	24.59%	÷0.985	×0.680	×0.993	×1.022	17.23%
Doubles /BIP	3.28%	÷0.989	×0.600	×0.993	×1.022	2.02%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.993	×1.022	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.022	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .284 → .200; ISO .038 → .023; BABIP .278 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.0	2,633	43	39	217	286	320	+47	+28	3.6	3.5
/162	664	11	10	+11.9	+7.1	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brainerh Palacios (OGILVIE)	19	35	20	45	50	200/269/269	69	268	1	1	25%	8%	55	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Alberth Palma 2024 · A	18	40→46	36→30	44→55	43	192/242/254	63	253	3	7	25%	6%	40	-3.0	209/283/254	45	257	1	19	17%	8%	57	-1.8	213/298/242	29	264	0	25	17%	10%	58	-0.9
✕Carlos Cauro 2024 · A	19	40	40	46→45	49	193/286/282	89	274	7	4	30%	10%	65	-1.2	204/280/311	107	300	11	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	198/280/293	95	285	12	5	32%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	38	35→30	48→50	47	182/254/242	60	245	3	12	26%	8%	43	-2.8	189/250/229	40	228	1	14	16%	7%	38	-3.2	191/256/205	14	227	0	12	15%	8%	33	-1.1
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Victor Rodrigues 2024 · A	19	42	37→30	47→50	51	198/275/273	75	246	5	10	21%	9%	58	-1.7	215/298/280	65	272	5	7	21%	10%	69	-0.9	213/306/263	50	270	4	5	20%	11%	66	-0.5
✕Manuel Palencia 2022 · A	19	45	35→40	48→40	47	210/268/274	64	254	2	9	18%	6%	55	-1.9	216/272/269	53	248	1	6	13%	7%	55	-1.9	224/277/259	35	251	0	4	10%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Yirer Garcia 2024 · A	18	40	35→30	50→45	55	185/272/243	58	221	3	8	17%	10%	51	-2.3	207/287/254	47	267	2	8	21%	9%	59	-1.7	212/293/237	25	277	1	8	21%	9%	56	-0.6
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Alfredo González 2011 · A	19	40	36→40	48→45	45	189/256/257	68	261	3	9	27%	8%	47	-2.5	183/228/250	67	245	3	9	25%	4%	34	-3.5	223/284/281	57	303	4	8	26%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Rafael P Valera 2013 · A	18	41	34→30	47→55	49	192/270/245	53	256	2	11	24%	9%	50	-2.3	198/286/250	52	254	1	14	20%	10%	57	-1.8	217/291/282	65	301	0	7	25%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Cesar Gonzalez 2024 · A	19	38	36→30	42→45	54	180/281/243	63	224	4	4	20%	10%	55	-1.9	184/265/255	71	280	4	4	32%	8%	51	-2.3	170/260/237	67	285	5	4	38%	9%	44	-0.9
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	40	37→45	45→30	42	191/256/259	68	246	4	5	24%	6%	48	-2.5	210/260/300	90	277	8	4	26%	4%	58	-1.7	184/228/264	80	253	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Christian Cerda 2022 · A	19	38→40	37→45	47→40	51	178/266/252	74	226	3	8	21%	9%	51	-2.2	196/294/293	97	262	8	6	26%	11%	71	-0.8	190/299/286	95	257	10	4	27%	13%	70	-0.5
✕Luis De La Cruz 2008 · A	19	45	35→30	47→30	43	210/260/276	66	275	2	9	24%	6%	52	-2.2	194/230/270	76	251	4	5	23%	4%	39	-3.1	247/269/327	80	297	3	3	18%	3%	63	-0.4
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	38	38→40	45→55	40	184/244/257	73	246	5	8	27%	5%	43	-2.8	198/254/290	92	276	7	10	29%	6%	54	-2.0	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Edgleen Perez 2024 · A	18	43→40	35→30	51→40	54	197/288/255	58	263	2	8	24%	11%	59	-1.6	211/310/262	51	287	2	5	24%	11%	70	-0.9	218/319/256	38	293	2	3	23%	12%	69	-0.5
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	44	37→45	46→55	51	205/287/284	78	263	3	8	22%	9%	65	-1.2	197/282/292	95	244	7	14	21%	8%	65	-1.2	200/269/297	97	251	8	12	23%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	40	39→45	48→40	45	193/281/280	88	261	6	11	27%	7%	63	-1.3	215/293/337	122	281	13	5	27%	8%	80	-0.1	217/284/341	124	274	15	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2

Brainerh Palacios

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps