Alberth Palma
SS Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Tampa Bay | 153 | .270/.370/.310 | 0 | 18 | 40 | — | .191/.274/.214 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKTB | 258 | .282/.407/.335 | 0 | 16 | 76 | — | .249/.337/.290 |
| 2026 | 20 | ATB | 483 | .224/.346/.254 | 0 | 41 | 55 | — | .211/.302/.237 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBTB | 579 | .226/.312/.265 | 0 | 20 | 69 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBTB | 154 | .235/.321/.293 | 1 | 5 | 77 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 240 | .240/.325/.314 | 2 | 7 | 84 | 0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 163 | 226 | 163 | 390 | 195 | 16 | 7 | 182 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 126 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 270 | 370 | 310 | 679 | 40 | 296 | 10 | 10 | 306 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 87 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 287 | 250 | 537 | 25 | 265 | 14 | 7 | 253 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 171 | 129 | 41 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 318 | 470 | 388 | 857 | 70 | 357 | 10 | 19 | 388 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 401 | 90 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 70 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 224 | 346 | 254 | 600 | 30 | 269 | 14 | 14 | 287 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 55 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 120 | 170 | 120 | 290 | 141 | 20 | 5 | 133 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 191 | 274 | 214 | 488 | 23 | 209 | 12 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 87 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 253 | 232 | 485 | 24 | 266 | 18 | 5 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 171 | 141 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 270 | 380 | 319 | 699 | 50 | 297 | 15 | 12 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 422 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 95 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 211 | 302 | 237 | 539 | 26 | 264 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 55 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 120 | 170 | 120 | 290 | 150 | 20 | 5 | 133 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 55 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 163 | 226 | 163 | 390 | 195 | 16 | 7 | 182 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 131 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 191 | 274 | 214 | 488 | 23 | 216 | 12 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 126 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 270 | 370 | 310 | 679 | 40 | 296 | 10 | 10 | 306 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 223 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 247 | 336 | 287 | 623 | 40 | 297 | 16 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 258 | 209 | 59 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 39 | 29 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 282 | 407 | 335 | 742 | 53 | 322 | 11 | 15 | 342 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 422 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 95 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 211 | 302 | 237 | 539 | 26 | 270 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 401 | 90 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 70 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 224 | 346 | 254 | 600 | 30 | 269 | 14 | 14 | 287 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 55 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 115 | 170 | 115 | 285 | 141 | 20 | 5 | 133 | -24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 182 | 274 | 204 | 478 | 22 | 209 | 12 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 226 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 243 | 336 | 283 | 619 | 40 | 287 | 16 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 425 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 95 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 209 | 302 | 235 | 537 | 26 | 264 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 153 | 137 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 182 | 274 | 204 | 478 | 22 | 209 | 12 | 7 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 258 | 226 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 243 | 336 | 283 | 619 | 40 | 287 | 16 | 10 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 483 | 425 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 95 | 6 | 41 | 8 | 209 | 302 | 235 | 537 | 26 | 264 | 20 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 579 | 509 | 115 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 109 | 7 | 20 | 5 | 226 | 312 | 265 | 577 | 39 | 284 | 19 | 10 | 271 | 69 | -21 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 447 | 394 | 92 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 83 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 232 | 318 | 291 | 609 | 59 | 285 | 19 | 10 | 283 | 77 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 48% | 495 | 437 | 104 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 91 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 237 | 323 | 313 | 635 | 75 | 286 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 551 | 485 | 117 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 55 | 102 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 241 | 326 | 328 | 654 | 87 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 299 | 89 | -7 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 576 | 508 | 123 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 57 | 107 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 242 | 327 | 338 | 665 | 96 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 56% | 589 | 519 | 126 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 58 | 111 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 243 | 327 | 344 | 671 | 101 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 305 | 93 | -5 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 589 | 519 | 125 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 112 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 242 | 326 | 341 | 668 | 99 | 288 | 19 | 10 | 304 | 92 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 580 | 511 | 123 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 58 | 111 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 240 | 324 | 337 | 661 | 96 | 287 | 19 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 564 | 497 | 119 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 110 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 238 | 322 | 331 | 653 | 93 | 286 | 20 | 10 | 298 | 88 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 551 | 487 | 115 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 109 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 235 | 319 | 323 | 642 | 88 | 285 | 20 | 10 | 294 | 85 | -10 | +1 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 533 | 471 | 110 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 52 | 108 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 231 | 314 | 314 | 628 | 82 | 283 | 20 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 510 | 451 | 102 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 105 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 227 | 308 | 302 | 610 | 76 | 280 | 21 | 10 | 281 | 76 | -14 | -1 | -4 | +5 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 154 | 136 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 321 | 293 | 614 | 58 | 289 | 19 | 10 | 285 | 77 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 48% | 240 | 211 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 240 | 325 | 314 | 640 | 74 | 290 | 18 | 10 | 294 | 84 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 291 | 257 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 54 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 244 | 328 | 329 | 658 | 86 | 292 | 19 | 10 | 301 | 89 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 315 | 277 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 59 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 245 | 329 | 339 | 668 | 94 | 292 | 19 | 10 | 305 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 56% | 328 | 288 | 71 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 62 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 246 | 330 | 345 | 674 | 99 | 292 | 19 | 10 | 307 | 93 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 324 | 285 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 62 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 245 | 329 | 342 | 671 | 97 | 292 | 19 | 10 | 306 | 92 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 317 | 280 | 68 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 61 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 327 | 338 | 665 | 95 | 291 | 19 | 10 | 303 | 90 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 301 | 265 | 64 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 59 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 241 | 324 | 332 | 656 | 91 | 290 | 20 | 10 | 300 | 88 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 290 | 257 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 238 | 321 | 324 | 645 | 86 | 289 | 20 | 10 | 296 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 278 | 246 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 56 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 316 | 315 | 631 | 81 | 287 | 20 | 10 | 290 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 264 | 235 | 54 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 55 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 311 | 304 | 614 | 74 | 283 | 21 | 9 | 283 | 76 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3102 | 2737 | 657 | 85 | 11 | 43 | 305 | 598 | 34 | 71 | 21 | 240 | 324 | 326 | 650 | 86 | 291 | 19 | 10 | 298 | 82 | -48 | +6 | -6 | +33 | +67 | 5.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 138 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 64 | 125 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 240 | 324 | 326 | 650 | 85 | 291 | 19 | 10 | 298 | 82 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7144 | 6290 | 1473 | 193 | 25 | 83 | 701 | 1354 | 80 | 222 | 68 | 234 | 319 | 312 | 631 | 78 | 284 | 19 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -104 | +11 | -10 | +66 | +134 | 10.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 135 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 64 | 123 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 236 | 320 | 316 | 637 | 80 | 285 | 19 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 483 PAwOBA .282 → .249 (−33)K% 14.5% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 10.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.047 | ×1.030 | 23.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.047 | ×1.030 | 3.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.047 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .282 → .249; ISO .030 → .027; BABIP .269 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 171 PAwOBA .386 → .307 (−79)K% 9.9% → 14.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.94% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 14.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.30% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 12.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 27.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.89% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .386 → .307; ISO .070 → .051; BABIP .357 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 87 PAwOBA .246 → .227 (−20)K% 13.8% → 18.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.90% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .246 → .227; ISO .025 → .026; BABIP .265 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 153 PAwOBA .307 → .227 (−79)K% 9.8% → 12.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.46% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.61% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.13% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | ×1.006 | ×1.008 | 18.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.945 | ×0.600 | ×1.006 | ×1.008 | 2.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.006 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 93, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .307 → .227; ISO .040 → .028; BABIP .296 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 55 PAwOBA .181 → .133 (−49)K% 16.4% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.36% | ÷0.999 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.680 | ×1.003 | ×1.022 | 14.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.061 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 121, 3B 112, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .181 → .133; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .195 → .141. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).