Yirer Garcia
C Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKTB | 192 | .239/.370/.303 | 1 | 4 | 49 | — | .193/.291/.247 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROK/INTL2 orgs | 357 | .238/.361/.259 | 0 | 6 | 65 | — | .257/.345/.271 |
| 2026 | 20 | ATB | 142 | .210/.295/.226 | 0 | 6 | 33 | — | .195/.259/.211 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBTB | 252 | .213/.284/.270 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBTB | 48 | .222/.293/.296 | 0 | 1 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 108 | .227/.299/.314 | 1 | 2 | 74 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays | — | 186 | 154 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 360 | 286 | 646 | 58 | 258 | 11 | 15 | 309 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 155 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 370 | 303 | 674 | 65 | 275 | 13 | 14 | 315 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 220 | 183 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 246 | 355 | 257 | 612 | 11 | 312 | 20 | 13 | 287 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 35 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 478 | 636 | 522 | 1.158 | 43 | 500 | 6 | 23 | 497 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 102 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 155 | 283 | 190 | 473 | 36 | 200 | 19 | 15 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 124 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 210 | 295 | 226 | 521 | 16 | 250 | 15 | 8 | 245 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 186 | 162 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 148 | 258 | 185 | 443 | 37 | 171 | 14 | 11 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 166 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 291 | 247 | 538 | 54 | 228 | 19 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 220 | 191 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 58 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 230 | 313 | 241 | 554 | 10 | 308 | 26 | 9 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 35 | 26 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 423 | 545 | 462 | 1.007 | 38 | 399 | 9 | 14 | 416 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 128 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 195 | 259 | 211 | 470 | 16 | 245 | 20 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 186 | 162 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 148 | 258 | 185 | 443 | 37 | 170 | 14 | 11 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays | — | 186 | 154 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 360 | 286 | 646 | 58 | 258 | 11 | 15 | 309 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 166 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 291 | 247 | 538 | 54 | 238 | 19 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 155 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 239 | 370 | 303 | 674 | 65 | 275 | 13 | 14 | 315 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 306 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 85 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 252 | 338 | 265 | 603 | 13 | 341 | 24 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 357 | 290 | 69 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 64 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 238 | 361 | 259 | 620 | 21 | 299 | 18 | 14 | 291 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 128 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 195 | 259 | 211 | 470 | 16 | 250 | 20 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 124 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 210 | 295 | 226 | 521 | 16 | 250 | 15 | 8 | 245 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays | — | 186 | 160 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 150 | 258 | 188 | 446 | 38 | 171 | 14 | 11 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 167 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 291 | 246 | 537 | 54 | 228 | 19 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 314 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 85 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 245 | 338 | 258 | 596 | 13 | 320 | 24 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 130 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 208 | 467 | 15 | 245 | 20 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 192 | 167 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 291 | 246 | 537 | 54 | 228 | 19 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 357 | 314 | 77 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 85 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 245 | 338 | 258 | 596 | 13 | 320 | 24 | 10 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 142 | 130 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 192 | 259 | 208 | 467 | 15 | 245 | 20 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 252 | 228 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 213 | 284 | 270 | 554 | 57 | 272 | 21 | 8 | 256 | 60 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 140 | 126 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 291 | 294 | 586 | 75 | 274 | 21 | 8 | 269 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 48% | 222 | 200 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 296 | 313 | 610 | 89 | 275 | 20 | 8 | 278 | 74 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 53% | 305 | 274 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 300 | 327 | 627 | 98 | 277 | 20 | 8 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 358 | 322 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 73 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 231 | 303 | 336 | 639 | 105 | 278 | 20 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | TB | 56% | 387 | 348 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 79 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 232 | 304 | 341 | 645 | 110 | 279 | 20 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | TB | 55% | 401 | 361 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 83 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 303 | 339 | 642 | 108 | 278 | 21 | 8 | 290 | 83 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | TB | 59% | 402 | 362 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 84 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 229 | 301 | 334 | 635 | 105 | 277 | 21 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | TB | 56% | 396 | 356 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 84 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 298 | 328 | 625 | 101 | 276 | 21 | 8 | 284 | 78 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | TB | 54% | 386 | 348 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 83 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 223 | 294 | 320 | 614 | 97 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | TB | 57% | 355 | 320 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 78 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 219 | 289 | 310 | 599 | 91 | 271 | 22 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -12 | -1 | -3 | +6 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 48 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 293 | 296 | 590 | 74 | 277 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 48% | 108 | 97 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 299 | 314 | 613 | 87 | 279 | 20 | 8 | 279 | 74 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 53% | 161 | 145 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 302 | 328 | 630 | 97 | 281 | 20 | 8 | 286 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 196 | 176 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 305 | 336 | 641 | 104 | 282 | 20 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | TB | 56% | 215 | 193 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 306 | 342 | 648 | 108 | 282 | 20 | 8 | 293 | 84 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | TB | 55% | 221 | 198 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 305 | 339 | 644 | 106 | 281 | 21 | 8 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | TB | 59% | 236 | 212 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 303 | 334 | 637 | 104 | 280 | 21 | 8 | 289 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | TB | 56% | 221 | 198 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 300 | 328 | 628 | 100 | 279 | 21 | 8 | 285 | 78 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | TB | 54% | 208 | 187 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 296 | 320 | 616 | 95 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 280 | 75 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | TB | 57% | 204 | 184 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 221 | 291 | 310 | 601 | 89 | 274 | 22 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -7 | -1 | -2 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1818 | 1633 | 377 | 65 | 9 | 27 | 147 | 381 | 22 | 22 | 9 | 231 | 303 | 331 | 634 | 100 | 284 | 21 | 8 | 285 | 73 | -47 | +1 | -4 | +32 | +39 | 2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 135 | 23 | 3 | 10 | 53 | 136 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 231 | 304 | 332 | 637 | 101 | 283 | 21 | 8 | 285 | 73 | -17 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4313 | 3856 | 862 | 133 | 19 | 54 | 353 | 894 | 60 | 59 | 19 | 224 | 299 | 310 | 609 | 86 | 275 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -91 | +3 | -7 | +61 | +74 | 4.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 130 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 53 | 135 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 224 | 299 | 310 | 608 | 86 | 276 | 21 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 142 PAwOBA .241 → .217 (−25)K% 14.8% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.79% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.015 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .241 → .217; ISO .016 → .016; BABIP .250 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 220 PAwOBA .286 → .256 (−30)K% 19.5% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.73% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.71% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 30.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .286 → .256; ISO .011 → .011; BABIP .312 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Rays · 35 PAwOBA .500 → .416 (−84)K% 5.7% → 8.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 5.71% | ÷0.985 | ×1.440 | — | — | 8.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.86% | ÷0.991 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 14.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 47.62% | ÷1.018 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 38.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.026 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.809 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .500 → .416; ISO .043 → .037; BABIP .500 → .399. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Rays · 192 PAwOBA .312 → .240 (−72)K% 13.0% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.02% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.06% | ÷1.024 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.31% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | ×1.041 | ×1.008 | 18.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷0.941 | ×0.720 | ×1.041 | ×1.008 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.041 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.002 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .312 → .240; ISO .065 → .053; BABIP .275 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Rays · 186 PAwOBA .302 → .209 (−94)K% 11.3% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.29% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.05% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.56% | ÷1.005 | ×0.680 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 15.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.993 | ×0.600 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 0.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | ×0.995 | ×1.008 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷0.938 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.38% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .302 → .209; ISO .058 → .034; BABIP .258 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .