Miguel Briceno
SS Cedar Rapids Kernels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ACarolina Mudc… | 337 | .277/.325/.365 | 3 | 16 | 60 | — | .237/.274/.307 |
| 2025 | 22 | AMIN | 192 | .208/.289/.286 | 2 | 10 | 32 | — | .184/.241/.253 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+/AMIN | 224 | .254/.327/.363 | 5 | 1 | 54 | — | .217/.269/.304 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBMIN | 1 | .232/.283/.323 | 0 | 0 | 71 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBMIN | 54 | .234/.287/.332 | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBMIN | 105 | .235/.289/.338 | 2 | 1 | 77 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 308 | 362 | 669 | 124 | 253 | 9 | 9 | 300 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 88 | 75 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 320 | 400 | 427 | 827 | 107 | 407 | 22 | 11 | 360 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Brewers | — | 89 | 83 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 313 | 352 | 361 | 714 | 48 | 361 | 13 | 6 | 321 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 310 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 277 | 325 | 365 | 690 | 87 | 309 | 13 | 6 | 307 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 208 | 289 | 286 | 574 | 77 | 239 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 34 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 206 | 188 | 393 | 31 | 208 | 24 | 6 | 185 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 173 | 154 | 44 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 286 | 360 | 416 | 776 | 130 | 328 | 18 | 10 | 348 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 200 | 435 | 67 | 200 | 29 | 12 | 211 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 196 | 182 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 154 | 210 | 225 | 436 | 71 | 166 | 12 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 88 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 282 | 304 | 586 | 76 | 315 | 32 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 89 | 85 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 247 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 35 | 299 | 20 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 316 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 237 | 274 | 307 | 581 | 70 | 275 | 17 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 174 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 184 | 241 | 253 | 494 | 69 | 216 | 23 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 34 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 152 | 176 | 182 | 358 | 30 | 193 | 29 | 3 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 173 | 159 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 239 | 297 | 340 | 636 | 101 | 284 | 23 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 17 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 188 | 364 | 62 | 173 | 41 | 6 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 196 | 182 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 154 | 210 | 225 | 436 | 71 | 170 | 12 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 196 | 177 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 308 | 362 | 669 | 124 | 253 | 9 | 9 | 300 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 88 | 79 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 228 | 282 | 304 | 586 | 76 | 333 | 32 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 88 | 75 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 320 | 400 | 427 | 827 | 107 | 407 | 22 | 11 | 360 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 89 | 85 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 247 | 273 | 282 | 555 | 35 | 309 | 20 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Brewers | — | 89 | 83 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 313 | 352 | 361 | 714 | 48 | 361 | 13 | 6 | 321 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 316 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 237 | 274 | 307 | 581 | 70 | 280 | 17 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 310 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 43 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 277 | 325 | 365 | 690 | 87 | 309 | 13 | 6 | 307 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 174 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 184 | 241 | 253 | 494 | 69 | 227 | 23 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 168 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 208 | 289 | 286 | 574 | 77 | 239 | 17 | 9 | 260 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 224 | 207 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 265 | 290 | 554 | 82 | 264 | 25 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 224 | 201 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 254 | 327 | 363 | 691 | 109 | 301 | 20 | 10 | 313 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers 1 | — | 196 | 181 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 155 | 210 | 227 | 437 | 72 | 166 | 12 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers Gold | — | 88 | 82 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 220 | 282 | 293 | 575 | 73 | 315 | 32 | 7 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Brewers | — | 89 | 86 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 244 | 273 | 279 | 552 | 35 | 299 | 20 | 3 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 318 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 236 | 274 | 305 | 579 | 69 | 275 | 17 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 177 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 181 | 241 | 249 | 489 | 68 | 216 | 23 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 224 | 206 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 291 | 556 | 83 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 337 | 318 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 58 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 236 | 274 | 305 | 579 | 69 | 275 | 17 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 192 | 177 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 181 | 241 | 249 | 489 | 68 | 216 | 23 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 224 | 206 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 291 | 556 | 83 | 262 | 25 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIN | 0% | 274 | 254 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 64 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 283 | 322 | 605 | 91 | 292 | 23 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIN | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 283 | 323 | 606 | 91 | 292 | 0 | 0 | 273 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIN | 30% | 179 | 164 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 287 | 332 | 619 | 98 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIN | 44% | 237 | 218 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 235 | 289 | 338 | 627 | 103 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIN | 49% | 266 | 245 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 289 | 339 | 628 | 105 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 52% | 286 | 263 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 338 | 627 | 105 | 291 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 51% | 289 | 266 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 68 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 288 | 336 | 624 | 104 | 290 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIN | 51% | 289 | 266 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 285 | 328 | 613 | 100 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -9 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIN | 30% | 54 | 50 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 287 | 332 | 619 | 99 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIN | 44% | 105 | 97 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 289 | 338 | 627 | 103 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIN | 49% | 130 | 120 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 290 | 339 | 629 | 105 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 52% | 147 | 135 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 289 | 338 | 628 | 105 | 291 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -4 | -0 | -0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 51% | 149 | 137 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 288 | 336 | 624 | 104 | 290 | 23 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIN | 51% | 149 | 138 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 285 | 329 | 613 | 100 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 734 | 677 | 157 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 173 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 232 | 287 | 334 | 621 | 102 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 64 | -21 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +16 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 139 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 153 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 232 | 286 | 332 | 618 | 100 | 289 | 24 | 7 | 280 | 64 | -19 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2805 | 2589 | 580 | 102 | 9 | 38 | 178 | 622 | 9 | 57 | 23 | 224 | 276 | 314 | 591 | 90 | 278 | 22 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -49 | +0 | -4 | +18 | +36 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 135 | 24 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 144 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 225 | 276 | 317 | 593 | 92 | 279 | 22 | 6 | 262 | 64 | -19 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | 0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 173 PAwOBA .341 → .276 (−64)K% 17.9% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 22.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 24.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 3.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.25% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .341 → .276; ISO .130 → .101; BABIP .328 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 34 PAwOBA .181 → .152 (−29)K% 23.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 15.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 3.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .181 → .152; ISO .031 → .026; BABIP .208 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 17 PAwOBA .206 → .150 (−56)K% 29.4% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 9.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .206 → .150; ISO .067 → .048; BABIP .200 → .173. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 192 PAwOBA .261 → .216 (−44)K% 17.2% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.19% | ÷0.994 | ×1.360 | — | — | 23.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.054 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.032 | — | 17.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.032 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | — | 4.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.48% | ÷0.898 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .261 → .216; ISO .077 → .066; BABIP .239 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 337 PAwOBA .304 → .257 (−46)K% 12.8% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.76% | ÷1.013 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.23% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.72% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.015 | 22.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.99% | ÷0.962 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.015 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.007 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×1.015 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.101 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 113, 2B 92, 3B 101, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .304 → .257; ISO .087 → .072; BABIP .309 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Brewers · 89 PAwOBA .316 → .243 (−73)K% 13.5% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.48% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷0.998 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.99% | ÷0.991 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 26.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.952 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 98, 2B 90, 3B 85, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .316 → .243; ISO .048 → .035; BABIP .361 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Brewers Gold · 88 PAwOBA .364 → .260 (−104)K% 21.6% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.59% | ÷0.991 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.017 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.36% | ÷0.979 | ×0.820 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 24.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.023 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×0.959 | ×1.008 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.144 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 98, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .364 → .260; ISO .107 → .073; BABIP .407 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 196 PAwOBA .294 → .193 (−101)K% 9.2% → 11.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.18% | ÷0.954 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.67% | ÷0.986 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.98% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 11.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.012 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 3.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.036 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.948 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.63% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 107, K 91, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .294 → .193; ISO .124 → .070; BABIP .253 → .166. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).