Cesar Gonzalez
C Stockton Ports| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKOAK | 46 | .244/.326/.366 | 0 | 0 | 17 | — | .167/.239/.262 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKOAK | 147 | .220/.333/.325 | 0 | 0 | 29 | — | .160/.236/.237 |
| 2026 | 21 | AOAK | 244 | .228/.355/.322 | 4 | 5 | 53 | — | .190/.293/.261 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBOAK | 354 | .191/.273/.278 | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBOAK | 61 | .202/.283/.303 | 1 | 1 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBOAK | 120 | .206/.287/.314 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 71 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 486 | 300 | 786 | 20 | 326 | 11 | 20 | 383 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 180 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 361 | 320 | 681 | 102 | 252 | 16 | 15 | 322 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 326 | 366 | 692 | 122 | 370 | 30 | 9 | 314 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 46 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 273 | 231 | 503 | 51 | 241 | 26 | 11 | 230 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 101 | 84 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 238 | 360 | 369 | 729 | 131 | 339 | 26 | 15 | 331 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 202 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 69 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 355 | 322 | 677 | 94 | 321 | 28 | 13 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 71 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 386 | 222 | 608 | 19 | 225 | 14 | 14 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 180 | 155 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 123 | 244 | 161 | 406 | 39 | 154 | 20 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 95 | 280 | 43 | 7 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 46 | 41 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 227 | 220 | 447 | 49 | 222 | 35 | 7 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 101 | 90 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 156 | 240 | 244 | 484 | 89 | 260 | 38 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 211 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 293 | 261 | 554 | 71 | 300 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 71 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 386 | 222 | 608 | 19 | 244 | 14 | 14 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 71 | 50 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 280 | 486 | 300 | 786 | 20 | 326 | 11 | 20 | 383 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 180 | 155 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 123 | 244 | 161 | 406 | 39 | 153 | 20 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 180 | 147 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 218 | 361 | 320 | 681 | 102 | 252 | 16 | 15 | 322 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 95 | 318 | 43 | 7 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 326 | 366 | 692 | 122 | 370 | 30 | 9 | 314 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 130 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 243 | 238 | 482 | 77 | 266 | 37 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 147 | 123 | 27 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 220 | 333 | 325 | 659 | 106 | 307 | 26 | 14 | 299 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 211 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 293 | 261 | 554 | 71 | 319 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 202 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 69 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 228 | 355 | 322 | 677 | 94 | 321 | 28 | 13 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 71 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 386 | 218 | 604 | 18 | 225 | 14 | 14 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 180 | 153 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 124 | 244 | 163 | 408 | 39 | 154 | 20 | 11 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 95 | 280 | 43 | 7 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 132 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 159 | 243 | 235 | 478 | 76 | 248 | 37 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 211 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 293 | 261 | 554 | 71 | 300 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 46 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 95 | 280 | 43 | 7 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 132 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 159 | 243 | 235 | 478 | 76 | 248 | 37 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 244 | 211 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 94 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 190 | 293 | 261 | 554 | 71 | 300 | 39 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 354 | 315 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 102 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 191 | 273 | 278 | 551 | 87 | 264 | 29 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | OAK | 34% | 178 | 158 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 196 | 278 | 293 | 571 | 97 | 266 | 28 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 46% | 260 | 232 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 72 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 282 | 304 | 586 | 104 | 268 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 68 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 52% | 320 | 284 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 88 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 203 | 285 | 312 | 597 | 109 | 270 | 28 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 357 | 318 | 66 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 97 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 205 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 112 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 371 | 331 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 287 | 319 | 606 | 113 | 271 | 27 | 9 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 54% | 375 | 335 | 69 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 103 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 285 | 315 | 600 | 110 | 270 | 27 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 53% | 370 | 330 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 102 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 202 | 282 | 308 | 590 | 106 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 270 | 69 | -14 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 57% | 361 | 322 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 101 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 199 | 278 | 300 | 579 | 101 | 266 | 28 | 9 | 265 | 65 | -15 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | OAK | 34% | 61 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 283 | 303 | 586 | 101 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 268 | 64 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 46% | 120 | 107 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 287 | 314 | 601 | 108 | 277 | 28 | 8 | 274 | 68 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 52% | 165 | 148 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 290 | 322 | 612 | 113 | 279 | 27 | 8 | 278 | 70 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 194 | 172 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 292 | 327 | 619 | 116 | 280 | 27 | 9 | 281 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 201 | 179 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 55 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 212 | 292 | 329 | 622 | 117 | 280 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 73 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 54% | 203 | 180 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 56 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 290 | 324 | 615 | 114 | 279 | 28 | 9 | 279 | 71 | -7 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 53% | 196 | 174 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 318 | 605 | 110 | 278 | 28 | 9 | 275 | 69 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 57% | 205 | 183 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 284 | 310 | 593 | 105 | 275 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1345 | 1198 | 254 | 53 | 7 | 24 | 115 | 370 | 20 | 23 | 7 | 212 | 292 | 328 | 620 | 116 | 284 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 63 | -49 | +2 | -2 | +24 | +29 | 0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 123 | 26 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 179 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 212 | 293 | 330 | 623 | 117 | 284 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 63 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3423 | 3030 | 595 | 114 | 16 | 52 | 302 | 969 | 62 | 54 | 20 | 196 | 283 | 296 | 579 | 100 | 267 | 28 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -101 | +3 | -4 | +49 | +59 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 113 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 57 | 184 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 197 | 283 | 297 | 580 | 101 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 261 | 63 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AStockton Ports · 244 PAwOBA .312 → .247 (−65)K% 28.3% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.015 | 25.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.015 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .312 → .247; ISO .094 → .071; BABIP .321 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 101 PAwOBA .326 → .220 (−107)K% 25.7% → 37.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.74% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.85% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.24% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 13.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.52% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 11.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×1.030 | ×0.995 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .326 → .220; ISO .131 → .086; BABIP .339 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AStockton Ports · 46 PAwOBA .235 → .194 (−41)K% 26.1% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.52% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 17.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .194; ISO .051 → .043; BABIP .241 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 46 PAwOBA .306 → .193 (−113)K% 30.4% → 43.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.70% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 17.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 7.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .306 → .193; ISO .122 → .072; BABIP .370 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Athletics · 180 PAwOBA .315 → .200 (−115)K% 16.1% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.11% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 10.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.49% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 12.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.138 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 2.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.54% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 100, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .315 → .200; ISO .102 → .050; BABIP .252 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Athletics · 71 PAwOBA .381 → .280 (−101)K% 11.3% → 14.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.27% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.72% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 13.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.45% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.95% | ÷1.004 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.952 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 1.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .381 → .280; ISO .020 → .014; BABIP .326 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).