Juan Fraide

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 161 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.3 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#552ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKHOU	9	5	30	3.00	2.43	21.6%	8.6%	—	K 14.7% · BB 10.8% · FIP 3.23
2026	20	MIX2 levels	18	13	79	2.96	2.97	28.1%	8.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.21
2027PROJ	21	MLBHOU	—	—	0	4.63	4.63	20.2%	9.9%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBHOU	4	4	22	4.44	4.36	21.5%	9.2%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	23	MLBHOU	6	6	36	4.30	4.22	22.4%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 8.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsPeyton Remy (age 21) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Noah Denoyer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.2%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$44M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.5M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$7M		$15M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	0.0%	3.00	3.23	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	0.0%	3.00	3.23	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	21.6%	8.6%	12.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.43	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	79	324	91	27	7	72%	4.4	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	2.9%	2.96	4.21	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	79	324	91	27	7	72%	4.4	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	2.9%	2.96	4.21	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	13	79	324	91	27	7	72%	4.4	28.1%	8.3%	19.8%	2.2%	2.96	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	9.9%	10.3%	2.9%	4.63	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	267	57	25	8	100%	6.3	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	2.9%	4.48	4.40	+0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	267	60	23	8	100%	6.3	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.34	4.26	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	63	267	61	23	8	100%	6.3	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.23	4.16	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	60	255	60	21	7	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.8%	4.16	4.11	+0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	61	256	60	21	7	100%	6.1	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.12	4.09	+0.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	65	276	71	21	8	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.6%	17.9%	2.8%	3.96	3.85	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	264	67	21	8	100%	6.2	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	2.9%	3.95	3.94	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	58	245	62	20	8	100%	5.8	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	3.1%	4.02	4.07	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	HOU	9	9	52	220	55	18	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	8.3%	16.5%	3.3%	4.15	4.24	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	HOU	8	8	46	195	48	17	7	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.7%	15.8%	3.5%	4.33	4.45	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	4	4	22	93	20	9	3	100%	5.5	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	2.8%	4.44	4.36	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	HOU	6	6	36	152	34	13	4	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.8%	13.6%	2.8%	4.30	4.22	+0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	44	186	43	16	5	100%	6.3	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.7%	4.19	4.12	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	47	198	46	17	5	100%	5.9	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.07	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	50	211	50	18	6	100%	6.2	23.6%	8.4%	15.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.05	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	56	236	60	18	7	100%	6.2	25.6%	7.6%	17.9%	2.8%	3.92	3.81	+1.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	55	232	59	18	7	100%	6.1	25.4%	7.8%	17.7%	2.9%	3.91	3.90	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	52	220	55	18	7	100%	5.8	25.2%	8.0%	17.2%	3.0%	3.97	4.02	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	48	203	50	17	7	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.3%	16.5%	3.2%	4.10	4.19	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	42	177	43	15	6	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.7%	15.8%	3.4%	4.28	4.40	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	453	1914	463	159	56	100%	6.0	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.9%	4.10	3.70	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	204	70	25	100%	6.1	24.2%	8.3%	15.9%	2.9%	4.10	3.70	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		27	18	109	440	83	45	9	67%	4.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	2.1%	2.97	3.95	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	33	200	807	152	82	17	67%	4.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	2.1%	2.97	3.95	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 62 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.20 (+1.12)K% 26.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.74%	—	×0.740	19.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.180	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Astros · 17 IPFIP 2.52 → 4.23 (+1.71)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.250	5.68%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.400	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 30 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.23 (+0.86)K% 21.6% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.55%	—	×0.680	14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.250	10.78%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.023	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Fraide (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.27	22.3%	13.4%	190	-0.36	—	—	—
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	87
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	86
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	85
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	83
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	83
Mariano Salomon R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	21	SP-	3.48	21.0%	6.9%	2.3%	.282	4.85	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.37	2.60	158	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	82
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	58	23.6%	8.5%	1.14	4.20
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Stan Belinda ('00)	3.4	61	21.3%	9.9%	1.13	4.12
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91