Juan Fraide — OGILVIE

Juan Fraide P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 161 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.6 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$42M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	0.0%	3.00	3.23	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	0.0%	3.00	3.23	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	9	5	30	116	25	10	0	56%	3.3	21.6%	8.6%	12.9%	0.0%	3.00	2.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	18	13	79	324	91	27	7	72%	4.4	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	2.9%	2.96	4.21	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	18	13	79	324	91	27	7	72%	4.4	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	2.9%	2.96	4.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	HOU	4	4	17	66	22	3	2	100%	4.2	33.3%	4.5%	28.8%	3.0%	3.24	2.52	—
2026	20	A RAW	HOU	14	9	62	258	69	24	5	64%	4.5	26.7%	9.3%	17.4%	1.9%	2.89	3.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	81	343	73	33	10	100%	6.3	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	2.9%	4.53	4.47	+0.4
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	80	32	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.8%	4.37	4.27	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	89	374	86	32	10	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.8%	4.23	4.14	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	383	90	32	11	100%	6.1	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.12	4.05	+0.9
2031	25	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	92	388	93	32	11	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.7%	4.04	3.99	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	92	388	93	31	11	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.7%	4.00	3.97	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	90	382	92	31	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	8.2%	15.9%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	88	371	89	31	11	100%	6.3	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	84	354	84	30	11	100%	6.0	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	3.0%	4.16	4.23	+0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	79	333	84	27	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	3.2%	4.14	4.13	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	74	310	77	26	11	100%	6.1	25.0%	8.4%	16.5%	3.5%	4.26	4.34	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	68	287	70	25	11	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.7%	4.44	4.56	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	HOU	10	10	62	263	63	24	10	100%	6.2	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	4.0%	4.66	4.81	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	HOU	7	7	40	169	36	16	5	100%	5.7	21.3%	9.7%	11.6%	2.8%	4.49	4.43	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	62	262	58	23	7	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.0%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.23	+0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	75	317	73	27	9	100%	6.2	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	2.7%	4.19	4.10	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	81	342	80	28	9	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.08	4.01	+0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	84	355	85	29	9	100%	6.0	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.7%	4.00	3.95	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	87	29	10	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.7%	3.96	3.93	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	86	363	87	30	10	100%	6.1	24.1%	8.2%	15.9%	2.7%	3.97	3.97	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	84	29	10	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	80	338	80	29	10	100%	6.2	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.18	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	75	317	80	26	10	100%	6.2	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	3.1%	4.09	4.08	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	HOU	12	12	70	296	74	25	10	100%	5.8	25.0%	8.4%	16.5%	3.4%	4.21	4.29	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	65	274	67	24	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.6%	4.38	4.50	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	59	249	60	23	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	9.3%	14.7%	3.9%	4.60	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		156	156	945	3992	952	339	117	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.5%	15.4%	2.9%	4.15	3.78	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	201	72	25	100%	6.1	23.8%	8.5%	15.4%	2.9%	4.15	3.78	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		27	18	109	440	83	45	9	67%	4.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	2.1%	2.97	3.95	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	33	200	807	152	82	17	67%	4.0	18.9%	10.1%	8.7%	2.1%	2.97	3.95	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Fraide (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.6%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.29	22.2%	13.2%	255	-0.35	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	87
Robert Colina R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.73	3.25	266	85
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	83
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	82
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	82
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	80
Michael Dominguez R 2021 · 4.09 FIP	20	SP	4.09	17.9%	11.1%	2.0%	.289	5.72	20.1%	5.0%	280	+1.63	3.82	383	80
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	80
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	80
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	79
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	79
Wuilliams Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	19	SP-	4.21	17.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.363	5.79	21.2%	5.9%	70	+1.58	3.69	135	79
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	79
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	79
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	79
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	78
Lorenzo Encarnacion R 2022 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP-	4.36	18.9%	10.2%	2.8%	.360	5.38	15.3%	4.3%	125	+1.02	3.54	201	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	78	23.7%	8.6%	1.16	4.22
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43