Miguel Welch

SS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	168	.302/.419/.446	1	16	59	—	.203/.293/.297
2026	18	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	219	.292/.419/.404	3	33	56	—	.189/.290/.242
2027PROJ0% MLB	19	MLBBOS	329	.226/.299/.313	3	9	75	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBOS	91	.236/.310/.336	1	2	80	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBOS	186	.239/.313/.347	2	5	84	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed97

Whiff%96

Z-Con%95

K%93

wOBA70

Chase%70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMarcus Lemon (age 19) · Luis Durango (age 19) · Kendall George (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 188 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .296 / .311

PA188

HR2

SB5

K%22

BB%9

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$36M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	178	52	5	3	3	39	25	0	33	6	292	419	404	824	112	325	11	18	374	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	148	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	203	293	297	591	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	148	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	203	293	297	591	95	236	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	219	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	178	52	5	3	3	39	25	0	33	6	292	419	404	824	112	325	11	18	374	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	147	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	204	293	299	593	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	147	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	204	293	299	593	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	329	296	68	12	3	3	28	73	2	9	1	226	299	313	612	87	287	22	9	279	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	266	239	54	9	2	3	23	58	2	7	1	230	304	327	631	97	289	22	9	286	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	384	344	80	14	3	5	33	84	4	10	2	233	308	339	646	106	290	22	9	293	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	468	420	98	17	4	7	41	102	4	12	2	236	310	348	658	112	291	22	9	297	87	-7	+2	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	522	466	111	19	4	9	46	113	5	13	3	238	312	355	667	117	292	22	9	301	90	-6	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	558	499	120	21	5	10	49	121	5	14	3	239	314	360	674	121	293	22	9	303	91	-6	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	579	518	125	22	5	11	51	125	5	14	3	240	314	362	676	122	293	22	9	304	92	-6	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	589	526	127	22	5	11	52	127	6	14	3	240	314	362	676	122	293	22	9	304	92	-6	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	591	529	127	22	5	11	52	129	5	14	3	239	313	359	673	121	293	22	9	303	91	-6	+2	+0	+6	+13	1.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	588	526	125	22	5	10	52	129	5	13	3	237	311	355	666	118	292	22	9	300	89	-8	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	579	518	121	21	4	10	51	129	5	12	3	235	309	349	658	114	291	22	9	297	87	-9	+1	-1	+6	+13	1.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	569	510	118	20	4	9	49	129	5	11	3	232	305	342	647	110	289	23	9	292	84	-11	+1	-2	+6	+12	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	60%	555	498	113	19	4	8	48	127	4	9	3	228	301	332	633	104	287	23	9	287	80	-13	+1	-3	+6	+12	0.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	BOS	61%	537	483	108	18	4	7	45	126	4	8	4	223	295	321	615	98	284	23	8	279	75	-16	+0	-4	+6	+12	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	91	82	20	4	1	1	8	20	1	2	0	236	310	336	645	99	298	22	9	292	80	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	186	166	39	8	1	2	16	41	2	5	1	239	313	347	660	108	299	22	9	298	84	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	254	228	55	10	2	4	22	55	2	7	1	242	316	356	672	114	300	22	9	303	87	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	295	264	64	12	2	5	26	64	3	7	1	244	318	363	681	119	301	22	9	306	90	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	315	281	69	13	2	6	28	68	3	8	2	246	319	369	688	123	302	22	9	309	91	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	327	292	72	14	2	6	29	71	3	8	2	246	320	370	690	124	302	22	9	310	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	333	298	73	14	2	6	29	72	3	8	2	246	320	370	690	124	302	22	9	310	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	328	293	72	14	2	6	29	71	3	8	2	245	319	368	687	123	302	22	9	308	91	-4	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	323	289	70	13	2	6	28	71	3	7	1	243	317	363	680	120	301	22	9	306	89	-4	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	310	277	67	13	2	5	27	69	3	6	1	241	314	357	672	117	300	22	9	302	87	-5	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	325	291	69	13	2	5	28	73	3	6	2	238	311	350	661	112	298	22	9	298	84	-6	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	60%	331	297	70	13	2	5	28	76	3	6	2	234	306	341	647	107	296	23	8	292	80	-8	+0	-2	+4	+7	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	BOS	61%	329	296	67	12	2	4	28	77	2	5	2	229	300	329	629	100	292	23	9	285	75	-10	+0	-2	+4	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3747	3354	807	153	24	61	326	828	34	83	19	241	314	355	669	114	300	22	9	302	85	-59	+9	-6	+40	+81	6.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	141	27	4	11	57	144	6	14	3	242	317	359	676	117	302	22	9	302	85	-10	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7360	6583	1532	265	59	115	652	1596	62	205	48	233	308	343	651	111	289	22	9	294	85	-113	+16	-10	+75	+151	12.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	135	23	5	10	58	141	5	18	4	232	307	341	648	108	289	22	9	294	85	-11	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chico Carrasquel'50-'59 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,259 PA	7.9	5,259	55	31	251*	317*	361*	+54	+31	14.2	15.5
/162	664	7	4	+6.9	+3.9	1.8	pk7: 17
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.9	3,935	64	89	235	306	348	+42	+24	9.5	8.2
/162	664	11	15	+7.1	+4.1	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Billy Urbanski'31-'37 * career totals — 6 seasons, 3,345 PA	5.0	3,345	19	24	237*	300*	353*	+32	+2	7.1	7.1
/162	664	4	5	+6.5	+0.4	1.4	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Welch (OGILVIE)	19	55	30	60	60	224/296/311	86	287	2	5	22%	9%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Durango 2022 · A	19	50	38→30	54→70	43	233/296/306	73	313	5	25	26%	6%	74	-0.6	213/291/269	56	284	2	28	24%	7%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Kendall George 2024 · A	19	55→60	36→30	52→65	48	253/320/322	69	342	3	22	25%	8%	85	+0.2	249/328/307	58	343	2	42	25%	10%	85	+0.2	262/344/315	53	355	2	56	24%	11%	90	+0.4
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nelson Rada 2023 · A	17	47→57	37→30	56→60	50	219/307/303	84	268	3	23	18%	8%	78	-0.3	238/321/298	60	329	2	31	25%	9%	81	-0.1	255/332/312	57	351	2	38	25%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2011 · A	20	54→59	36→40	54→55	45	251/301/319	68	321	2	17	22%	6%	77	-0.3	254/308/346	92	329	4	24	22%	7%	86	+0.3	240/297/328	88	314	4	25	23%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→56	37→40	56→65	55	217/314/292	75	284	3	19	23%	11%	78	-0.3	191/275/274	83	293	5	10	33%	10%	59	-1.7	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→52	37→30	57→55	51	228/307/306	77	293	4	19	22%	9%	78	-0.3	236/285/296	60	294	3	15	19%	6%	65	-1.2	238/283/292	53	295	3	15	19%	5%	60	-1.1
✕Luis Lara 2024 · A	19	46→56	36→40	52→60	49	218/283/285	67	271	3	18	20%	7%	63	-1.3	235/308/311	76	297	4	28	21%	8%	79	-0.2	245/323/325	80	308	5	31	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Marco Vargas 2024 · A	19	45→46	37→40	50→60	57	208/302/289	81	267	4	13	22%	12%	72	-0.7	214/295/280	66	304	3	25	27%	10%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	226/277/312	86	293	6	14	24%	6%	67	-1.1	258/305/354	96	315	6	11	19%	6%	86	+0.3	281/332/373	92	325	5	8	14%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Magneuris Sierra 2015 · A	19	52→58	37→40	51→60	46	244/294/317	73	299	3	13	19%	6%	74	-0.5	242/275/309	67	324	3	15	25%	4%	64	-1.3	231/275/306	76	302	5	32	24%	5%	63	-0.6

Miguel Welch

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps