Henry Alcantara — OGILVIE

Henry Alcantara P DSL Mariners

Age 19 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%17.7%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%-1.7%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	18	1	34	144	37	15	1	6%	1.9	17.5%	13.0%	4.5%	1.0%	1.57	3.84	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	18	1	34	144	37	15	1	6%	1.9	17.5%	13.0%	4.5%	1.0%	1.57	3.84	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	18	1	34	144	37	15	1	6%	1.9	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	0.7%	1.57	2.63	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	10	34	165	22	33	3	91%	3.1	9.1%	25.0%	-15.9%	2.5%	7.49	6.90	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	10	34	165	22	33	3	91%	3.1	9.1%	25.0%	-15.9%	2.5%	7.49	6.90	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	10	34	165	22	33	3	91%	3.1	13.3%	20.0%	-6.7%	1.8%	7.49	5.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	SEA	19	0	20	84	15	16	2	0%	1.1	17.7%	19.3%	-1.7%	2.9%	6.05	6.05	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SEA	31	0	32	137	26	22	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.66	5.52	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	SEA	15	0	16	68	13	11	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.66	5.52	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	67	13	11	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.66	5.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	138	25	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.4%	2.8%	2.9%	5.66	5.14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		29	11	68	309	40	60	6	38%	2.3	13.0%	19.4%	-6.4%	1.8%	4.50	5.47	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	32	200	909	118	176	17	38%	2.3	13.0%	19.4%	-6.4%	1.8%	4.50	5.47	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henry Alcantara (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	17.7%	19.3%	2.9%	—	5.52	19.1%	2.8%	32	-0.53	—	—	—
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	87
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	86
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	200	85
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	85
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	85
Jesus Tillero R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.3%	18.0%	3.1%	.274	5.23	14.8%	3.8%	129	-0.71	2.26	180	84
Leomar Rosario R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	15.4%	26.4%	1.1%	.282	5.24	19.6%	-2.4%	58	-0.51	4.95	134	84
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	84
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	82
Sven Schüller R 2015 · 5.92 FIP	19	SW	5.92	13.2%	23.4%	1.8%	.320	4.44	11.5%	0.8%	160	-1.48	3.88	247	82
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	82
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	82
Abraham Parra R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	18	SP-	5.40	14.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.376	4.82	15.3%	1.3%	181	-0.58	4.16	243	81
Manuel Perez R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	18	SW	5.41	13.7%	19.8%	1.7%	.319	4.93	13.6%	1.4%	78	-0.48	3.40	188	81
Jesús Palacios R 2024 · 5.24 FIP	19	SP-	5.24	19.7%	20.5%	2.2%	.279	4.92	20.4%	-0.6%	36	-0.32	2.43	128	81
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	81
Randel Clemente R 2021 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	14.3%	21.7%	2.4%	.270	4.60	21.8%	-1.8%	88	-1.39	3.74	214	81
Miguel Ramirez R 2016 · 5.20 FIP	19	SP-	5.20	12.7%	18.9%	1.4%	.279	3.02	13.8%	8.7%	84	-2.18	2.40	126	81
Ben Peoples R 2019 · 6.28 FIP	18	SW	6.28	21.8%	27.5%	2.8%	.227	4.51	23.0%	9.1%	103	-1.77	3.56	365	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	18.6%	17.5%	1.13	5.81
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89