Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | 17 | 5 | 33 | 167 | 35 | 29 | 3 | 29% | 2.0 | 14.3% | 21.7% | -7.5% | 2.4% | 4.86 | 5.95 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | 17 | 5 | 33 | 167 | 35 | 29 | 3 | 29% | 2.0 | 21.0% | 17.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 4.86 | 4.78 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 18 | 0 | 21 | 106 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.74 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 18 | 0 | 21 | 106 | 24 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.67 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 19 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 24 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 23.5% | -4.3% | 0.0% | 4.34 | 4.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 19 | 0 | 19 | 85 | 24 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 4.34 | 3.10 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 221 | 80 | 50 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 27.3% | -1.7% | 1.1% | 6.14 | 5.00 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 48 | 221 | 80 | 50 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 36.2% | 22.6% | 13.6% | 0.9% | 6.14 | 3.43 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 232 | 76 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.0% | 21.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 232 | 76 | 40 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.8% | 17.2% | 15.5% | 1.3% | 4.25 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 0 | 30 | 143 | 49 | 31 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.8% | 23.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 7.28 | 5.62 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 105 | 85 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 22.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | STL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.7% | 22.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 120 | 523 | 154 | 116 | 14 | — | — | 29.5% | 22.2% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 5.90 | 5.49 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | STL | — | — | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | 27.7% | 22.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 5.45 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 109 | 74 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 87 | 0 | 91 | 385 | 111 | 70 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 85 | 0 | 90 | 379 | 108 | 67 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 48 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | STL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 74 | 47 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | STL | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 84 | 53 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 17.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 164 | 0 | 172 | 727 | 208 | 133 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 241 | 154 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.6% | 18.3% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 157 | 5 | 204 | 954 | 211 | 216 | 16 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 22.6% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 5.74 | 5.00 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 5 | 200 | 935 | 207 | 212 | 15 | 3% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 22.6% | -0.5% | 1.6% | 5.74 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Randel Clemente (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 27.7% | 22.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.90 | 28.6% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.55 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Simpson R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 83 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 81 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 81 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 80 |
| Eduardo Herrera R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 25.5% | 15.7% | 2.5% | .284 | 4.44 | 16.7% | -5.0% | 31 | +0.12 | 4.32 | 127 | 80 |
| Wyatt Olds R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .284 | 4.92 | 24.4% | 9.4% | 110 | +0.33 | 2.39 | 372 | 79 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.74 | 25.8% | 17.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.95 | 26.8% | 13.8% | 111 | -0.79 | 3.53 | 281 | 79 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.52 | 26.3% | 19.3% | 2.2% | .319 | 4.72 | 25.2% | 2.3% | 17 | +0.20 | 3.51 | 156 | 79 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 161 | 79 |
| Dakota Mekkes R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .290 | 4.81 | 16.7% | 1.8% | 70 | +0.30 | 2.99 | 246 | 78 |
| Andre Granillo R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 2.5% | .228 | 4.07 | 22.6% | 12.7% | 104 | -0.27 | 3.18 | 306 | 78 |
| Zane Russell R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.19 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 5.10 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 71 | -0.09 | 4.28 | 108 | 78 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 78 |
| Riley Ferrell R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 4.28 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 55 | -0.15 | 2.83 | 175 | 78 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 5.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.61 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 2.7% | .278 | 5.16 | 19.4% | 2.8% | 102 | -0.45 | 3.73 | 203 | 76 |
| Pat Light R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 20.9% | 14.5% | 2.1% | .270 | 4.39 | 16.4% | 2.8% | 110 | +0.05 | 4.11 | 172 | 76 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 146 | 75 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2027 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 75 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 75 |
| Alex Makarewich R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.83 | 26.8% | 28.7% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 103 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 90 | 28.3% | 19.4% | 1.05 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |