Lester Suarez

C DSL Red Sox Red

Age 18 R/R 6'0" / 189 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#893ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	16	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	87	.176/.299/.216	1	0	7	—	.132/.241/.171
2026	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	152	.254/.433/.430	3	0	67	—	.172/.327/.287
2027PROJMLE	18	MLBBOS	262	.217/.298/.305	3	3	74	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	19	MLBBOS	46	.227/.309/.326	1	1	78	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	20	MLBBOS	115	.231/.313/.336	2	2	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA77

ISO76

wRC+74

K%71

BB%62

Chase%45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMichael Arroyo (age 18) · Juan Fernandez (age 18) · Jesus Rodriguez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 78 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .296 / .302

PA78

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	16	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	74	13	0	0	1	7	19	6	0	0	176	299	216	515	41	222	22	8	256	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	114	29	9	1	3	26	26	10	0	0	254	433	430	863	175	299	17	17	391	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	76	10	0	0	1	5	23	6	0	0	132	241	171	412	39	164	26	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	122	21	6	1	2	18	32	10	0	0	172	327	287	614	115	198	21	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	76	10	0	0	1	5	23	6	0	0	132	241	171	412	39	173	26	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	74	13	0	0	1	7	19	6	0	0	176	299	216	515	41	222	22	8	256	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	122	21	6	1	2	18	32	10	0	0	172	327	287	614	115	211	21	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	114	29	9	1	3	26	26	10	0	0	254	433	430	863	175	299	17	17	391	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	76	10	0	0	1	5	23	6	0	0	132	241	171	412	39	164	26	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	123	21	6	1	2	18	32	10	0	0	171	327	285	611	114	198	21	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	87	76	10	0	0	1	5	23	6	0	0	132	241	171	412	39	164	26	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	152	123	21	6	1	2	18	32	10	0	0	171	327	285	611	114	198	21	12	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	262	233	51	9	2	3	21	66	6	3	1	217	298	305	603	88	288	25	8	277	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	133	118	27	5	1	2	11	33	3	2	1	221	303	317	621	96	291	25	8	284	78	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	20	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	237	210	47	8	2	3	19	59	6	4	2	224	308	328	635	103	292	25	8	290	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	359	317	72	13	2	6	30	88	9	6	3	227	310	337	647	109	293	25	8	294	85	-6	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.8
2031	22	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	445	394	91	16	3	8	37	108	11	8	4	230	313	344	656	114	294	24	8	298	88	-6	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.1
2032	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	107	10	8	4	232	314	350	664	118	295	24	8	301	90	-5	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2033	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	107	10	8	4	233	315	352	667	119	295	24	8	302	91	-5	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2034	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	107	10	8	4	233	315	353	668	120	295	24	8	302	91	-5	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2035	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	107	10	7	4	233	315	353	668	120	295	24	8	302	91	-5	-0	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2036	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	108	10	7	5	231	314	350	664	119	294	24	8	301	90	-5	-1	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2037	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	445	395	91	16	3	8	37	109	10	7	5	230	312	345	657	116	293	24	8	298	88	-6	-1	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2038	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	445	395	90	16	3	8	37	110	10	6	5	227	309	339	648	112	292	25	8	294	85	-8	-1	-1	+8	+10	0.8
2039	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	445	395	89	16	3	7	37	111	10	6	6	224	305	331	636	107	290	25	8	290	82	-9	-1	-2	+8	+10	0.5
2040	31	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	426	379	83	15	2	6	35	108	9	5	9	220	301	321	621	101	287	25	8	284	78	-11	-3	-3	+8	+9	0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	46	41	10	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	227	309	326	635	99	300	26	9	290	78	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	20	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	115	102	25	5	1	2	9	28	3	2	1	231	313	336	649	106	301	24	8	296	82	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	195	172	40	8	1	3	16	48	5	3	2	234	316	345	661	112	302	25	8	300	85	-3	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2031	22	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	252	223	53	10	2	4	21	61	6	4	2	236	318	352	671	116	303	24	8	304	88	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2032	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	256	227	55	11	2	5	21	62	6	4	2	238	320	358	678	120	304	24	8	307	90	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2033	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	254	225	55	11	2	5	21	61	6	4	2	239	321	361	681	122	305	24	8	308	91	-3	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.7
2034	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	252	223	54	10	2	5	21	61	6	4	2	239	321	361	682	122	305	24	8	308	91	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2035	26	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	252	223	54	10	2	5	21	61	6	4	3	239	321	361	682	122	304	24	8	308	91	-3	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2036	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	247	218	51	10	1	4	21	60	6	4	3	238	320	359	678	121	304	24	9	307	90	-3	-0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	244	216	50	10	1	4	20	60	6	4	3	236	318	354	671	118	303	25	8	304	88	-4	-0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2038	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	238	211	49	10	1	4	20	59	5	3	3	233	315	347	662	114	301	25	8	300	85	-4	-1	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2039	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	234	208	48	9	1	4	19	58	5	3	3	230	311	339	650	109	299	25	8	295	82	-5	-1	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	241	214	47	9	1	3	20	61	5	3	5	226	306	329	635	103	296	25	8	289	78	-6	-1	-2	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2826	2503	591	115	17	49	234	692	66	43	31	236	318	354	672	118	306	24	8	302	85	-44	-4	-4	+50	+61	6.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	135	26	4	11	54	159	15	10	7	234	317	351	667	116	303	24	8	302	85	-10	-1	-1	+12	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5477	4846	1092	194	36	92	457	1337	136	83	56	225	310	337	647	112	290	24	8	293	85	-84	-6	-7	+94	+113	11.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	129	23	4	11	54	159	16	10	7	224	308	336	644	111	289	24	8	293	85	-10	-1	-1	+12	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 152 PAwOBA .387 → .267 (−119)K% 17.1% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.11%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	12.06%
HBP% /PA	6.58%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.64%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.030	×1.008	12.83%
Doubles /BIP	10.23%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	6.37%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .387 → .267; ISO .175 → .105; BABIP .299 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 87 PAwOBA .250 → .178 (−71)K% 21.8% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.84%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	26.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.05%	÷0.959	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.00%
HBP% /PA	6.90%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.94%
Singles /BIP	21.82%	÷0.932	×0.680	×1.001	×1.022	16.28%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.059	×0.600	×1.001	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.001	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷0.920	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.95%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .250 → .178; ISO .041 → .021; BABIP .222 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.4	2,904	49	45	229	308	343	+52	+32	8.3	7.1
/162	664	11	10	+11.9	+7.3	1.9	pk7: 6
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lester Suarez (OGILVIE)	18	48→53	34→39	42→47	61	215/296/302	87	288	1	1	25%	8%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Juan Fernandez 2017 · A	18	48→58	37→40	45→50	52	224/309/297	73	285	4	5	21%	9%	76	-0.4	212/273/299	87	269	6	4	22%	6%	63	-1.4	239/301/321	82	296	8	9	21%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	43→51	39→45	47→45	49	205/283/297	92	259	5	4	22%	8%	67	-1.1	204/276/286	82	286	4	4	28%	7%	61	-1.5	232/310/341	109	301	10	3	24%	9%	83	+0.1
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	46	37→45	47→50	49	215/299/289	74	290	4	8	25%	9%	72	-0.7	205/319/270	65	256	3	14	19%	12%	76	-0.4	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
✕Aron Estrada 2023 · A	18	50→54	41→50	47→55	54	238/323/346	109	290	6	7	19%	10%	93	+0.8	235/304/342	107	293	8	18	21%	8%	84	+0.2	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Ali Sánchez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	42→40	50	210/283/277	67	260	5	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	215/266/268	53	272	3	6	21%	6%	53	-2.1	247/298/343	95	318	11	1	25%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	47	36→40	44→45	52	220/303/284	64	270	3	8	18%	9%	72	-0.7	199/266/269	70	259	4	5	23%	8%	53	-2.1	215/270/283	69	275	5	4	23%	7%	55	-0.5
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
✕Jancel Villarroel 2024 · A	19	46	40→45	44→50	53	218/308/313	95	272	6	8	21%	10%	80	-0.1	214/289/309	95	287	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.7	215/287/315	100	285	9	11	26%	6%	70	-0.5
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	47→57	36→45	49→50	50	218/277/294	76	258	2	12	16%	7%	63	-1.4	229/275/301	72	282	3	12	19%	5%	63	-1.4	276/322/383	106	335	4	17	18%	5%	96	+0.8
✕Demetrio Crisantes 2024 · A	19	48→58	38→50	46→55	43	227/284/313	85	310	5	7	27%	6%	70	-0.9	250/317/366	116	315	9	13	22%	8%	95	+0.9	258/328/389	130	318	10	12	21%	8%	102	+0.8
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→49	36→50	49→40	45	200/267/261	62	282	3	5	29%	8%	52	-2.2	206/282/284	78	279	6	5	26%	8%	63	-1.3	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Edward Duran 2022 · A	18	47→48	37→40	49→45	48	221/290/297	77	273	3	9	20%	7%	70	-0.9	209/283/276	67	264	2	8	20%	8%	62	-1.4	230/305/310	79	304	5	8	24%	8%	75	-0.2
✕Jeferson Quero 2022 · A	19	48→47	43→50	47→45	49	230/305/343	113	283	9	10	21%	8%	86	+0.3	230/284/354	124	292	13	8	25%	6%	80	-0.2	230/288/365	135	277	16	6	23%	7%	82	+0.0

Lester Suarez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps