Edward Duran

C Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1728ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	ATOR	327	.245/.350/.313	0	15	67	—	.226/.310/.285
2025	21	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	468	.265/.357/.405	8	8	74	—	.229/.301/.333
2026	22	AA/A+/ATOR	257	.231/.291/.325	3	4	42	—	.202/.252/.290
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBTOR	1	.202/.262/.286	0	0	54	-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	24	MLBTOR	52	.208/.268/.303	1	1	61	0.0
2029PROJ35% MLB	25	MLBTOR	101	.211/.273/.314	2	1	65	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%66

Whiff%66

Speed60

Z-Con%59

Chase%23

wRC+17

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsMatt Kennelly (age 23) · Gabriel Lino (age 23) · Jackson Williams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .262 / .286

PA1

HR0

K%25

BB%6

BABIP261

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	60	50	17	5	0	0	7	6	3	3	1	340	450	440	890	100	386	10	12	406	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	169	147	33	10	1	0	19	26	3	3	1	224	325	306	632	82	273	15	11	295	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	93	77	23	4	0	1	13	13	1	1	0	299	407	390	796	91	338	14	14	358	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	61	50	17	3	0	1	11	7	0	0	1	340	459	460	919	120	381	11	18	416	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	278	68	15	2	0	39	50	6	15	3	245	350	313	663	68	293	15	12	307	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	140	122	28	4	0	3	16	26	2	1	0	230	329	336	665	107	269	19	11	307	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	291	253	75	11	5	5	26	62	9	6	4	296	382	439	821	142	370	21	9	365	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	37	32	5	2	3	0	5	7	0	1	0	156	270	406	677	250	200	19	14	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	51	44	10	1	0	1	3	11	2	2	0	227	306	318	624	91	265	22	6	278	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	181	169	39	7	2	2	8	35	3	0	1	231	278	331	609	101	278	19	4	274	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	25	21	5	1	0	0	4	6	0	2	0	238	360	286	646	48	333	24	16	308	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	60	52	12	3	0	0	5	7	3	3	1	231	333	288	622	58	267	12	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	169	152	22	6	1	0	14	32	3	3	1	145	231	197	428	53	182	19	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	93	81	23	4	0	1	9	17	1	1	0	284	363	370	733	86	326	18	10	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	61	54	14	2	0	1	7	10	0	0	1	259	344	352	696	93	314	16	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	288	65	13	2	0	29	65	6	15	3	226	310	285	594	59	279	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	140	127	26	4	0	3	11	37	2	1	0	205	279	307	586	102	253	26	8	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	291	261	63	8	5	3	18	87	9	6	4	241	312	345	657	103	336	30	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	51	45	10	1	0	1	2	13	2	2	0	222	286	311	597	89	263	25	4	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	181	171	34	6	2	2	6	47	3	0	1	199	239	292	531	94	251	26	3	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	25	22	4	1	0	0	3	8	0	2	0	182	280	227	507	45	301	32	12	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	60	52	12	3	0	0	5	7	3	3	1	231	333	288	622	58	267	12	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	60	50	17	5	0	0	7	6	3	3	1	340	450	440	890	100	386	10	12	406	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	169	152	22	6	1	0	14	32	3	3	1	145	231	197	428	53	183	19	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	169	147	33	10	1	0	19	26	3	3	1	224	325	306	632	82	273	15	11	295	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	154	135	37	6	0	1	16	27	1	1	1	274	355	341	696	67	330	18	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	154	127	40	7	0	2	24	20	1	1	1	315	428	417	845	102	355	13	16	381	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	288	65	13	2	0	29	65	6	15	3	226	310	285	594	59	286	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	278	68	15	2	0	39	50	6	15	3	245	350	313	663	68	293	15	12	307	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	468	422	95	13	5	6	32	134	11	8	4	225	297	322	619	97	312	29	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	468	407	108	17	8	8	47	95	11	8	4	265	357	405	762	140	326	20	10	342	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	257	238	47	7	2	2	11	69	5	4	1	197	248	269	517	71	265	27	4	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	257	234	54	9	2	3	15	52	5	4	1	231	291	325	616	94	280	20	6	278	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	60	52	12	3	0	0	5	7	3	3	1	231	333	288	622	58	267	12	8	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	169	150	22	6	1	0	14	32	3	3	1	147	231	200	431	53	182	19	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	154	136	37	6	0	1	16	27	1	1	1	272	355	338	693	66	321	18	10	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	289	65	13	2	0	29	65	6	15	3	225	310	284	593	59	279	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	468	422	95	13	5	6	32	134	11	8	4	225	297	322	619	97	309	29	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	257	239	47	7	2	2	11	69	5	4	1	197	248	268	516	71	258	27	4	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	289	65	13	2	0	29	65	6	15	3	225	310	284	593	59	279	20	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	468	422	95	13	5	6	32	134	11	8	4	225	297	322	619	97	309	29	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	257	239	47	7	2	2	11	69	5	4	1	197	248	268	516	71	258	27	4	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	367	337	68	12	2	4	21	90	6	5	1	201	261	284	546	83	260	25	6	249	54	-20	+1	+1	+7	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	202	262	286	548	83	261	0	0	249	54	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	22%	235	215	44	8	1	3	14	57	4	3	1	207	268	302	569	95	262	24	6	258	61	-11	+0	+1	+4	+5	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	35%	292	267	57	10	2	5	18	70	5	4	1	210	272	313	585	103	264	24	6	265	65	-12	+0	+2	+5	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	42%	332	303	65	11	2	6	21	80	5	4	1	212	275	319	594	107	265	24	6	268	68	-13	+0	+2	+6	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	45%	348	317	68	12	2	6	23	84	5	4	1	213	276	321	597	108	266	24	7	270	69	-13	+0	+2	+6	+8	0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	46%	351	320	68	12	2	6	23	85	5	3	1	213	276	321	597	108	266	24	7	270	69	-13	+0	+1	+6	+8	0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	46%	344	313	66	11	2	6	23	84	5	2	1	210	274	314	588	104	265	24	7	266	66	-14	+0	+1	+6	+7	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	46%	334	304	63	11	2	5	22	83	5	1	1	207	270	307	576	99	263	25	7	261	63	-15	-0	-0	+6	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	22%	52	48	10	2	0	1	3	13	1	1	0	208	268	303	571	95	264	25	6	259	61	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	35%	101	92	20	3	1	2	6	24	2	1	0	211	273	314	587	103	265	24	6	265	65	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	42%	139	127	27	5	1	2	9	33	2	2	0	213	276	320	596	107	266	24	6	269	68	-5	+0	+1	+2	+3	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	45%	155	142	30	5	1	3	10	37	2	2	1	214	277	322	599	108	267	24	6	271	69	-6	+0	+1	+3	+3	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	46%	163	149	31	5	1	3	11	39	2	1	0	214	277	322	599	108	267	24	7	271	69	-6	+0	+1	+3	+4	0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	46%	159	146	31	5	1	3	10	39	2	1	0	211	274	316	590	105	266	25	6	267	66	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	46%	155	142	30	5	1	3	10	38	2	0	0	208	271	308	578	100	264	25	6	262	63	-7	+0	-0	+3	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	924	846	179	30	6	17	59	223	13	8	1	212	273	322	595	110	265	24	6	267	64	-37	+1	+3	+16	+20	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	126	21	4	12	42	157	9	6	1	212	274	321	595	109	265	24	6	267	64	-26	+1	+2	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3854	3493	743	129	24	48	262	922	66	57	19	213	280	305	585	92	273	24	7	263	64	-100	+1	+8	+43	+52	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	125	22	4	8	44	156	11	10	3	212	279	304	583	92	273	24	7	263	64	-27	+0	+2	+12	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 181 PAwOBA .268 → .220 (−48)K% 19.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.34%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	26.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.42%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	3.18%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.810	—	×1.012	1.36%
Singles /BIP	20.90%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.003	×1.012	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.22%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.003	×1.012	4.40%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.003	×1.012	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	1.49%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.012	1.25%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .268 → .220; ISO .101 → .079; BABIP .278 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 51 PAwOBA .282 → .262 (−20)K% 21.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.57%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	26.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.29%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	3.47%
Singles /BIP	24.24%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.042	24.50%
Doubles /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.860	—	×1.042	2.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	2.46%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .282 → .262; ISO .091 → .077; BABIP .265 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 25 PAwOBA .301 → .237 (−64)K% 24.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.00%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	32.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	11.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	—	24.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	—	5.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .237; ISO .048 → .037; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 291 PAwOBA .359 → .287 (−72)K% 21.3% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.31%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	29.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.93%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.16%
HBP% /PA	3.09%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	2.45%
Singles /BIP	28.27%	÷1.006	×0.920	×1.002	×1.015	26.28%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.047	×0.830	×1.002	×1.015	4.64%
Triples /BIP	2.62%	÷0.900	×0.910	×1.002	×1.015	2.69%
Home runs /BIP	2.62%	÷1.284	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .359 → .287; ISO .142 → .106; BABIP .370 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 140 PAwOBA .300 → .253 (−46)K% 18.6% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.57%	÷0.958	×1.350	—	—	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.039	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.02%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	1.19%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷1.022	×0.910	×1.025	×1.027	20.49%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.898	×0.830	×1.025	×1.027	4.05%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.939	×0.820	×1.025	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.855	×0.830	—	×1.027	3.11%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 104, 2B 80, 3B 88, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .300 → .253; ISO .107 → .099; BABIP .269 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 327 PAwOBA .303 → .267 (−36)K% 15.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.29%	÷1.041	×1.360	—	—	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.93%	÷0.959	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.84%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.47%
Singles /BIP	22.37%	÷0.962	×0.920	×1.001	×1.030	22.04%
Doubles /BIP	6.58%	÷0.999	×0.830	×1.001	×1.030	5.63%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.001	×1.030	0.72%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.003	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 92, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 108, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .303 → .267; ISO .068 → .058; BABIP .293 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADunedin Blue Jays · 93 PAwOBA .357 → .314 (−43)K% 14.0% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.98%	÷1.018	×1.360	—	—	18.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.98%	÷1.062	×0.690	—	×1.045	9.49%
HBP% /PA	1.08%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.88%
Singles /BIP	28.12%	÷0.988	×0.920	×1.018	×1.045	27.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.034	×0.830	×1.018	×1.045	5.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.111	×0.910	×1.018	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.56%	÷1.279	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.02%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 122, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .357 → .314; ISO .091 → .072; BABIP .338 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 61 PAwOBA .406 → .313 (−93)K% 11.5% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.48%	÷1.006	×1.440	—	—	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.03%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	11.26%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.23%	÷0.968	×0.820	—	×1.008	25.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷1.008	×0.720	—	×1.008	5.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷1.005	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.82%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 108, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .406 → .313; ISO .120 → .092; BABIP .381 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.4	925	16	8	212	271	316	+17	+9	0.5	0.5
/162	664	11	6	+11.9	+6.7	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Matt Walbeck'93-'03 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,280 PA	3.4	2,280	28	13	222*	268*	305*	+40	-0	-3.5	-1.5
/162	664	8	4	+11.5	-0.0	-1.0	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edward Duran (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	200/259/282	82	260	2	2	25%	6%	54	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	46	39→40	36→40	43	220/273/302	82	290	7	3	26%	6%	63	-1.3	225/278/304	79	279	5	6	20%	6%	65	-1.2	217/272/266	49	266	1	2	18%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Gabriel Lino 2016 · AAA	23	42	39→40	35→30	37	202/246/284	82	295	6	3	33%	5%	49	-2.4	210/263/305	95	303	8	3	32%	6%	61	-1.5	205/265/301	95	297	8	0	31%	6%	59	-0.7
✕Jackson Williams 2010 · AA	24	42	38→45	35→40	44	200/264/279	79	260	5	4	24%	7%	55	-1.9	196/262/292	96	261	9	3	27%	7%	58	-1.7	198/247/308	110	250	12	2	25%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Jonathan Morales 2018 · AA	23	45→48	38→40	40→30	42	215/251/287	73	255	6	3	19%	4%	51	-2.2	216/262/288	72	264	5	3	19%	5%	56	-1.9	212/261/304	92	248	11	1	19%	6%	57	-0.9
✕Christian Kelley 2017 · A	23	43	36→40	36→30	41	204/252/269	65	274	4	3	26%	5%	48	-2.5	201/261/278	77	274	7	2	28%	6%	54	-2.0	191/252/284	93	254	9	0	28%	6%	50	-1.0
✕David Urias 2008 · AAA	23	45	39→40	37→45	39	216/251/297	80	273	7	6	23%	4%	53	-2.1	244/279/321	77	296	4	9	18%	4%	69	-0.9	289/316/363	74	338	5	6	15%	3%	89	+0.2
✕Radames Nazario 2010 · A	23	45→44	39→40	34→40	40	213/266/305	92	268	6	5	22%	4%	62	-1.4	217/272/304	87	294	5	5	26%	6%	63	-1.3	209/278/278	69	284	5	2	26%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Ty Ross 2015 · A	23	43→41	40	36→30	43	209/260/300	91	265	8	3	24%	6%	58	-1.7	202/250/290	88	267	7	3	26%	6%	52	-2.2	190/237/268	78	251	6	0	26%	5%	40	-1.5
✕David Masters 2016 · A	23	38→37	35→45	38→40	43	184/244/241	57	248	3	5	26%	6%	39	-3.1	180/242/261	81	245	8	3	28%	7%	43	-2.8	187/256/313	125	256	16	1	32%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Alex Garabedian 2009 · A	23	40	40	36→30	39	198/239/287	89	266	7	4	28%	5%	47	-2.6	211/265/310	99	285	9	4	27%	7%	62	-1.4	212/273/311	99	279	10	1	26%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA	23	46→50	39→40	37→45	48	218/298/312	94	296	5	4	26%	9%	76	-0.4	192/276/279	87	283	5	9	31%	8%	61	-1.5	169/258/247	78	257	5	10	33%	8%	45	-1.9
✕Rocky Gale 2012 · AA	24	38→45	37→40	41→30	40	185/233/249	64	245	5	5	26%	5%	36	-3.3	205/237/262	57	251	4	4	19%	4%	39	-3.1	255/282/304	49	309	1	1	17%	3%	64	-0.6
✕Wendell Rijo 2019 · AA	23	42→45	39→50	42→50	45	204/264/287	83	263	6	8	24%	7%	57	-1.8	214/269/346	132	276	15	8	27%	6%	72	-0.7	210/267/353	143	267	17	14	28%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Austin Rei 2017 · A	23	39	41→40	39→40	43	192/269/284	92	263	8	4	29%	7%	59	-1.6	186/260/277	91	278	7	4	33%	7%	55	-2.0	169/248/255	86	260	6	3	34%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Brian Serven 2018 · A	23	43	37→50	40→30	44	203/260/282	79	255	4	6	21%	6%	54	-2.0	198/253/313	115	259	11	4	27%	5%	59	-1.7	212/290/326	114	302	11	1	31%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Stephen Wickens 2012 · A	23	44→45	36→40	40→55	49	205/278/280	74	256	2	5	20%	8%	61	-1.5	225/299/301	76	278	3	12	19%	8%	74	-0.6	224/295/293	69	276	3	15	19%	7%	69	-0.5
✕Rayder Ascanio 2019 · A	23	42→48	40	40→45	44	207/261/295	88	262	8	7	24%	6%	57	-1.8	215/266/310	95	274	9	6	24%	6%	63	-1.4	209/260/302	93	264	10	4	24%	6%	56	-0.9
✕Jonathan Mota 2010 · AA	23	47→49	38→45	40→45	46	224/281/308	84	282	5	6	22%	6%	68	-1.0	228/269/330	102	280	9	4	21%	4%	68	-1.0	232/270/335	103	282	10	2	21%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Christopher Minaker 2008 · AA	24	46→51	38→45	37→40	43	220/263/295	75	266	6	5	20%	5%	57	-1.8	236/269/332	96	278	7	4	17%	4%	68	-1.0	249/275/349	100	287	6	1	15%	3%	73	-0.4
✕Corey Kemp 2009 · A	23	42→49	38→40	41→40	42	203/264/278	75	269	6	3	26%	6%	55	-1.9	221/285/305	84	293	5	4	24%	7%	69	-0.9	228/295/313	85	298	4	2	23%	8%	72	-0.5

Edward Duran

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps