Edward Duran — OGILVIE

Edward DuranC Vancouver Canadians

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION144 act + 176 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .270 / .306

PA176

HR2

K%26

BB%6

BABIP272

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED30

scouting grade only

DEFENSE57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$19M	+$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	60	53	15	4	0	0	4	9	3	3	1	283	367	358	725	75	341	15	7	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	60	50	17	5	0	0	7	6	3	3	1	340	450	440	890	100	386	10	12	406	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	169	153	26	8	1	0	13	39	3	3	1	170	249	235	484	65	228	23	8	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	169	147	33	10	1	0	19	26	3	3	1	224	325	306	632	82	273	15	11	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	154	136	36	6	0	1	15	28	1	1	1	265	342	331	673	66	321	18	10	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	154	127	40	7	0	2	24	20	1	1	1	315	428	417	845	102	355	13	16	381	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	285	65	14	1	0	32	66	6	15	3	228	319	284	603	56	291	20	10	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	278	68	15	2	0	39	50	6	15	3	245	350	313	663	68	293	15	12	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	468	423	90	13	5	6	31	145	11	8	4	213	284	310	594	97	305	31	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A	3 teams	—	468	407	108	17	8	8	47	95	11	8	4	265	357	405	762	140	326	20	10	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	A+	TOR	—	144	137	25	4	2	1	5	41	2	2	1	182	222	263	485	80	253	28	3	209	18	-13	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.7
YTD	22	A+	TOR	—	144	134	31	6	2	1	8	29	2	2	1	231	285	328	613	97	288	20	6	278	71	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
ROS	22	A+	TOR	0%	176	160	33	6	2	2	11	45	3	3	1	206	270	306	576	100	263	26	6	249	49	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						265	0	0	237	40	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	A+	TOR	—	145	138	25	4	2	1	5	41	2	2	1	181	221	261	482	80	250	28	3	209	18	-13	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.7
TOT	22	A+	TOR	—	320	297	58	10	4	3	16	86	5	5	2	195	248	286	535	91	263	27	5	231	35	-23	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TOR	25%	486	441	92	16	4	7	34	121	8	6	2	209	277	311	588	102	267	25	7	264	60	-22	+0	+1	+9	+14	0.2
2028	24	MLB	TOR	36%	520	470	101	18	4	9	37	127	8	7	3	215	283	328	611	113	270	24	7	274	68	-19	+0	+1	+9	+15	0.6
2029	25	MLB	TOR	43%	520	469	102	18	4	10	38	125	8	7	3	217	287	337	624	119	271	24	7	280	73	-16	+0	+1	+9	+15	0.9
2030	26	MLB	TOR	47%	520	468	102	18	4	10	39	125	8	7	3	218	289	338	627	120	271	24	8	283	74	-15	+0	+1	+9	+15	1.0
2031	27	MLB	TOR	48%	520	468	102	18	4	10	39	125	8	7	3	218	289	338	627	120	271	24	8	283	75	-15	+0	+1	+9	+15	1.0
2032	28	MLB	TOR	48%	520	467	100	18	3	10	40	126	8	6	2	214	287	330	617	116	271	24	8	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2033	29	MLB	TOR	48%	520	467	100	18	3	10	40	127	8	6	2	214	287	330	617	116	270	24	8	280	72	-16	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.8
2034	30	MLB	TOR	47%	520	467	100	18	3	10	40	128	8	5	2	214	287	330	617	116	268	25	8	277	70	-18	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.5
2035	31	MLB	TOR	47%	504	452	95	17	3	9	39	126	8	4	2	210	285	321	605	111	266	25	8	273	67	-19	+0	-2	+9	+14	0.2
2036	32	MLB	TOR	47%	481	434	88	15	3	8	37	122	7	4	1	203	276	306	583	104	263	25	8	267	63	-20	+0	-3	+9	+14	-0.0
2027	23	MLB	TOR	25%	122	111	23	4	1	2	8	30	2	2	1	207	273	315	588	108	268	25	7	253	52	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	TOR	36%	189	170	36	7	1	3	14	46	3	2	1	212	283	318	601	106	271	24	7	264	60	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2029	25	MLB	TOR	43%	223	201	44	8	2	4	16	54	4	3	1	219	290	338	628	119	272	24	7	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	26	MLB	TOR	47%	242	218	48	8	2	5	18	58	4	3	1	220	292	344	636	124	273	24	7	272	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	27	MLB	TOR	48%	247	222	49	9	2	5	19	59	4	3	1	221	294	347	641	126	273	24	8	272	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2032	28	MLB	TOR	48%	251	226	50	9	2	5	19	61	4	3	1	221	293	345	638	124	272	24	8	271	66	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2033	29	MLB	TOR	48%	247	222	48	8	2	5	19	60	4	3	1	216	290	338	628	122	271	24	8	269	64	-10	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.1
2034	30	MLB	TOR	47%	245	220	48	8	2	5	19	60	4	2	1	218	292	341	633	123	270	24	8	267	62	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.0
2035	31	MLB	TOR	47%	236	212	44	8	1	4	18	59	4	2	1	208	282	311	593	104	267	25	8	263	59	-11	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.1
2036	32	MLB	TOR	47%	224	202	41	7	1	4	17	57	3	2	1	203	275	307	582	104	264	25	8	257	55	-11	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2227	2005	431	76	16	42	167	544	36	25	10	215	287	332	619	117	272	24	7	267	62	-95	+1	-2	+40	+63	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	126	22	5	12	49	159	11	7	3	215	289	332	620	116	273	24	8	267	62	-28	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	6465	5813	1247	225	44	102	489	1584	106	92	34	215	287	321	608	106	275	25	8	274	68	-233	+5	-3	+115	+183	6.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	125	23	4	10	49	159	11	9	3	214	287	318	606	104	274	24	8	274	68	-23	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	60	50	17	5	0	0	7	6	3	3	1	340	450	440	890	100	386	10	12	406	169	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2022	18	ROK	DSL Miami	—	169	147	33	10	1	0	19	26	3	3	1	224	325	306	632	82	273	15	11	295	84	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.2
2023	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	93	77	23	4	0	1	13	13	1	1	0	299	407	390	796	91	338	14	14	358	132	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	61	50	17	3	0	1	11	7	0	0	1	340	459	460	919	120	381	11	18	416	176	+5	-0	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	327	278	68	15	2	0	39	50	6	15	3	245	350	313	663	68	293	15	12	307	93	-3	+2	—	—	+9	0.9
2025	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	140	122	28	4	0	3	16	26	2	1	0	230	329	336	665	107	269	19	11	307	93	-1	+0	—	—	+4	0.3
2025	21	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	291	253	75	11	5	5	26	62	9	6	4	296	382	439	821	142	370	21	9	365	138	+12	-0	—	—	+8	2.1
2025	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	37	32	5	2	3	0	5	7	0	1	0	156	270	406	677	250	200	19	14	295	84	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,228	41	25	214	283	329	+40	+12	2.7	2.6
	/162	664	12	7	214	283	329	+11.9	+3.7	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Edward Duran (OGILVIE)	22	30→42	30→35	30	45	195/248/286	91	263	3	5	27%	5%	35	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Kennelly 2011 · A	22	42	40	34→40	41	208/251/293	85	273	8	3	26%	5%	46	-2.0	217/270/301	84	280	6	4	23%	6%	57	-1.2	222/276/286	64	284	3	2	22%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Brian Serven 2017 · A	22	39	37→45	39→30	40	187/227/257	70	241	4	4	24%	4%	27	-3.3	192/247/283	91	253	6	4	26%	5%	43	-2.2	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Donny Sands 2018 · A	22	48	38→45	37→40	42	231/271/309	79	289	6	4	22%	5%	59	-1.1	208/253/290	82	290	5	4	28%	5%	46	-2.0	227/287/347	121	276	14	2	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Christian Kelley 2017 · A	23	42	36→40	36→30	41	201/249/263	62	269	4	3	26%	5%	38	-2.6	200/261/283	83	272	8	2	28%	6%	50	-1.8	192/255/300	107	253	12	0	28%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA	23	45→48	39→40	37→45	46	213/290/302	89	294	5	4	28%	8%	67	-0.5	184/268/265	81	282	5	9	33%	8%	49	-1.8	157/249/227	71	251	5	10	36%	9%	29	-2.2
✕Devin Lohman 2011 · A	22	40→46	36→40	40→50	42	192/249/257	66	258	3	4	26%	6%	37	-2.7	214/274/301	87	276	8	13	24%	6%	59	-1.1	211/272/299	88	264	8	16	22%	6%	56	-1.1
✕Radames Nazario 2010 · A	23	44	39→40	34→40	40	211/263/302	91	265	6	5	22%	4%	55	-1.4	216/269/303	87	298	5	5	28%	5%	57	-1.2	216/279/288	72	301	5	2	28%	7%	54	-0.7
✕Brian Schales 2018 · A	22	40→49	37→45	39→40	44	191/261/256	64	267	5	3	29%	7%	43	-2.2	209/272/327	118	306	10	4	33%	7%	66	-0.6	208/270/345	137	301	12	3	33%	6%	67	-0.3
✕David Rodríguez 2018 · A	22	40→44	37→40	40	41	193/251/264	71	262	5	3	27%	6%	40	-2.4	213/266/317	104	289	9	5	28%	6%	59	-1.1	214/268/330	116	285	13	4	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕James Guerrero 2007 · A	23	43→46	39→40	39→45	53	204/284/288	84	238	6	6	17%	9%	61	-1.0	206/293/291	85	259	6	8	21%	10%	66	-0.6	196/294/272	75	250	5	8	22%	11%	59	-0.5
✕David Urias 2008 · AAA	23	43	39→40	37→45	37	211/243/292	81	265	7	6	23%	3%	43	-2.2	236/269/312	76	286	4	9	18%	4%	58	-1.2	290/316/372	82	335	7	6	15%	3%	90	+0.4
✕Jhonatan Solano 2008 · A	22	44	37→45	40	47	210/269/276	65	259	4	4	20%	7%	50	-1.7	218/260/301	83	255	7	4	17%	5%	53	-1.5	235/269/334	99	262	10	2	15%	4%	62	-0.4
✕Simon Vasquez 2009 · A	21	45	35→40	40→50	49	210/285/271	61	269	2	4	22%	8%	56	-1.3	227/286/308	81	283	4	7	20%	6%	66	-0.6	253/299/341	88	301	2	9	16%	5%	79	+0.1
✕Brett Cumberland 2017 · A	22	38→39	39→50	37→30	36	184/254/271	87	287	7	4	36%	5%	44	-2.1	195/291/334	139	302	16	2	38%	7%	77	+0.1	184/289/329	144	283	17	0	38%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Ty Ross 2015 · A	23	42→41	41→40	36→30	44	208/261/306	98	258	9	3	23%	6%	55	-1.4	203/252/292	89	268	7	3	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/239/269	78	256	6	0	26%	5%	34	-1.4
✕Christopher Tamarez 2014 · A	20	42	38→45	36→40	41	203/248/281	78	264	6	3	25%	5%	43	-2.2	202/244/257	55	288	3	5	29%	5%	33	-2.9	184/216/191	7	263	0	3	29%	4%	0	-1.7
✕Michael Barash 2017 · A	22	45	39→45	41→45	40	218/271/304	85	290	7	5	27%	5%	58	-1.2	210/279/332	122	282	13	4	28%	8%	69	-0.4	196/272/325	129	257	14	2	28%	9%	62	-0.4
✕Niko Vasquez 2011 · A	22	41	41→50	40→45	47	199/280/301	102	285	8	3	31%	9%	63	-0.9	197/265/307	110	265	10	3	28%	8%	58	-1.2	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Anderson Hidalgo 2011 · A	22	50	41→45	36→50	45	241/293/345	103	305	8	5	23%	6%	78	+0.2	215/265/313	98	284	7	3	26%	6%	58	-1.2	200/251/293	93	264	7	1	26%	5%	44	-1.2