Jonathan Morales
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 442 | .254/.316/.407 | 14 | 1 | 58 | — | .213/.261/.330 |
| 2024 | 29 | INTLCriollos de C… | 111 | .218/.275/.307 | 2 | 0 | 63 | — | |
| 2025 | 30 | INTLCriollos de C… | 68 | .232/.358/.268 | 0 | 0 | 88 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 20 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 152 | 135 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 304 | 377 | 511 | 889 | 207 | 298 | 9 | 9 | 390 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A | Rome Braves | — | 462 | 424 | 114 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 55 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 269 | 317 | 356 | 673 | 87 | 296 | 12 | 5 | 300 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 72 | 62 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 254 | 210 | 463 | 16 | 222 | 14 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 143 | 130 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 223 | 223 | 446 | 54 | 191 | 14 | 5 | 202 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 209 | 194 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 253 | 300 | 304 | 604 | 52 | 294 | 15 | 6 | 274 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 69 | 61 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 279 | 344 | 624 | 148 | 217 | 19 | 9 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 51 | 46 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 320 | 261 | 581 | 308 | 16 | 6 | 268 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 159 | 142 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 268 | 329 | 352 | 681 | 85 | 303 | 13 | 6 | 303 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 31 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 355 | 407 | 762 | 148 | 250 | 6 | 6 | 347 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 85 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 333 | 239 | 573 | 266 | 11 | 11 | 264 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 132 | 121 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 344 | 380 | 724 | 91 | 347 | 19 | 8 | 325 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 178 | 154 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 285 | 253 | 538 | 52 | 231 | 13 | 10 | 245 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 72 | 63 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 111 | 232 | 11 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 76 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 321 | 500 | 547 | 1.047 | 226 | 318 | 12 | 18 | 441 | 184 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 157 | 152 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 145 | 161 | 217 | 378 | 72 | 164 | 18 | 2 | 167 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 135 | 118 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 303 | 297 | 600 | 76 | 248 | 14 | 9 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 353 | 308 | 95 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 37 | 57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 390 | 432 | 822 | 123 | 350 | 16 | 10 | 367 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 156 | 137 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 261 | 255 | 517 | 80 | 167 | 7 | 8 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 397 | 357 | 92 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 322 | 429 | 751 | 171 | 265 | 14 | 8 | 329 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | INTL | Puerto Rico | — | 45 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 256 | 220 | 475 | 265 | 18 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 111 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 275 | 307 | 582 | 89 | 241 | 14 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 68 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 358 | 268 | 626 | 36 | 283 | 15 | 13 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 152 | 140 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 371 | 656 | 143 | 234 | 13 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 462 | 433 | 101 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 233 | 269 | 305 | 574 | 72 | 264 | 17 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 143 | 132 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 209 | 220 | 428 | 53 | 190 | 17 | 3 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | Florida Fire Frogs | — | 209 | 198 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 256 | 268 | 524 | 45 | 276 | 22 | 4 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 51 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 280 | 234 | 514 | 298 | 20 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 159 | 146 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 253 | 297 | 336 | 632 | 82 | 285 | 16 | 3 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 31 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 290 | 357 | 647 | 143 | 192 | 10 | 3 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 132 | 124 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 282 | 323 | 605 | 81 | 308 | 24 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 178 | 159 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 238 | 226 | 465 | 50 | 200 | 17 | 7 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 157 | 153 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 135 | 170 | 305 | 46 | 147 | 23 | 1 | 135 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 353 | 318 | 83 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 69 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 327 | 346 | 673 | 85 | 306 | 20 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 397 | 367 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 70 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 261 | 330 | 591 | 117 | 230 | 18 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 152 | 140 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 371 | 656 | 143 | 235 | 13 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 152 | 135 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 304 | 377 | 511 | 889 | 207 | 298 | 9 | 9 | 390 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 497 | 116 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 233 | 269 | 308 | 577 | 74 | 272 | 17 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 534 | 486 | 126 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 65 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 259 | 309 | 337 | 646 | 78 | 287 | 12 | 6 | 287 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 421 | 395 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 197 | 234 | 243 | 477 | 46 | 245 | 21 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 421 | 385 | 83 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 65 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 271 | 283 | 554 | 68 | 247 | 15 | 6 | 251 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 326 | 297 | 72 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 242 | 290 | 303 | 593 | 61 | 283 | 16 | 4 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 326 | 286 | 74 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 259 | 331 | 315 | 646 | 56 | 289 | 12 | 7 | 291 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 345 | 71 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 259 | 267 | 526 | 61 | 252 | 20 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 382 | 338 | 80 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 303 | 314 | 616 | 77 | 270 | 15 | 8 | 274 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL MLE | Puerto Rico | — | 76 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 321 | 500 | 547 | 1.047 | 226 | 318 | 12 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 25 | INTL RAW | Puerto Rico | — | 76 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 321 | 500 | 547 | 1.047 | 226 | 318 | 12 | 18 | 441 | 184 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 281 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 143 | 181 | 324 | 57 | 148 | 23 | 1 | 135 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 292 | 270 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 48 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 226 | 252 | 478 | 74 | 202 | 16 | 5 | 216 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 455 | 120 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 99 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 333 | 352 | 684 | 88 | 314 | 19 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 509 | 445 | 119 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 68 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 351 | 378 | 728 | 110 | 288 | 13 | 10 | 328 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 407 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 263 | 332 | 594 | 118 | 236 | 18 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 442 | 398 | 101 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 35 | 63 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 316 | 407 | 723 | 153 | 265 | 14 | 8 | 317 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL MLE | Criollos de Caguas | — | 111 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 275 | 307 | 582 | 89 | 241 | 14 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 29 | INTL RAW | Criollos de Caguas | — | 111 | 101 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 275 | 307 | 582 | 89 | 241 | 14 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL MLE | Criollos de Caguas | — | 68 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 358 | 268 | 626 | 36 | 283 | 15 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 30 | INTL RAW | Criollos de Caguas | — | 68 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 358 | 268 | 626 | 36 | 283 | 15 | 13 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 152 | 140 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 229 | 285 | 371 | 656 | 143 | 234 | 13 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 505 | 116 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 89 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 230 | 269 | 303 | 572 | 73 | 264 | 17 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 421 | 399 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 87 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 234 | 241 | 475 | 45 | 241 | 21 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 23 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 326 | 303 | 72 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 238 | 290 | 297 | 587 | 59 | 276 | 16 | 4 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 382 | 354 | 71 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 259 | 260 | 519 | 59 | 246 | 20 | 6 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 292 | 284 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 143 | 180 | 322 | 56 | 147 | 23 | 1 | 135 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 457 | 120 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 99 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 333 | 350 | 683 | 88 | 306 | 19 | 8 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 442 | 412 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 263 | 328 | 590 | 117 | 230 | 18 | 6 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3313 | 3027 | 663 | 108 | 2 | 43 | 177 | 603 | 40 | 7 | 10 | 219 | 271 | 299 | 570 | 80 | 256 | 18 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -240 | -3 | +0 | +59 | +72 | -11.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 129 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 118 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 270 | 293 | 563 | 76 | 254 | 18 | 5 | 226 | 39 | -47 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 397 PAwOBA .325 → .259 (−66)K% 13.9% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.85% | ÷0.947 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.31% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.87% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×0.992 | 17.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.63% | ÷1.002 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×0.992 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×0.992 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.64% | ÷1.062 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 3.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .325 → .259; ISO .171 → .121; BABIP .265 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 353 PAwOBA .361 → .299 (−62)K% 16.1% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.15% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.48% | ÷0.945 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.88% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 26.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 109, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .361 → .299; ISO .123 → .088; BABIP .350 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 157 PAwOBA .163 → .135 (−29)K% 18.5% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.47% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.91% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 1.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.20% | ÷1.011 | ×0.930 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 11.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.07% | ÷1.039 | ×0.830 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 3.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.997 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.16% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 102, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .163 → .135; ISO .072 → .053; BABIP .164 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAMississippi Braves · 178 PAwOBA .245 → .209 (−36)K% 13.5% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.48% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.55% | ÷0.967 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.69% | ÷1.068 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 14.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 114, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .245 → .209; ISO .052 → .052; BABIP .231 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 132 PAwOBA .319 → .269 (−50)K% 18.9% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.94% | ÷0.948 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.038 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 26.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .319 → .269; ISO .091 → .082; BABIP .347 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMississippi Braves · 159 PAwOBA .296 → .273 (−24)K% 13.2% → 16.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.21% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.03% | ÷1.037 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.52% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.97% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 22.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷1.013 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.110 | ×0.880 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 122, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .296 → .273; ISO .085 → .078; BABIP .303 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 51 PAwOBA .267 → .248 (−19)K% 15.7% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.947 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 30.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 123, K 90, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .267 → .248; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .308 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGCL Braves · 31 PAwOBA .338 → .252 (−86)K% 6.5% → 9.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 9.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 3.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.45% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 4.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 15.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 3.01% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .252; ISO .148 → .112; BABIP .250 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .