Robinson Smith
P
FCL Pirates
Age 18
RHP
6'4" / 163 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 101
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%23.1%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.5%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 9 | 9 | 23 | 104 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 2.6 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 8.87 | 6.81 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 9 | 9 | 23 | 104 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 2.6 | 26.9% | 11.5% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 8.87 | 4.47 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | FCL Pirates | 10 | 6 | 27 | 118 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 60% | 2.7 | 14.4% | 13.8% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 4.28 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | PIT | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 41 | 177 | 39 | 19 | 4 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | PIT | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | PIT | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 46 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 19 | 15 | 51 | 222 | 36 | 31 | 9 | 79% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 6.39 | 5.81 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 59 | 200 | 876 | 142 | 123 | 37 | 79% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 14.1% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 6.39 | 5.81 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robinson Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.31 | 23.5% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Sheng-En Lin R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .223 | 4.19 | 17.8% | 3.4% | 61 | +0.61 | 3.58 | 108 | 82 |
| Dahian Santos R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.91 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 4.7% | .316 | 4.73 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 161 | -0.18 | 4.35 | 197 | 81 |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 80 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 78 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.21 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .337 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.14 | 4.21 | 104 | 78 |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 78 |
| Gilberto Batista R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .323 | 5.20 | 15.0% | 4.5% | 187 | +1.23 | 3.97 | 227 | 77 |
| Moises Castillo R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 77 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2028 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 77 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 76 |
| Marco Raya R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.47 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.30 | 3.83 | 358 | 76 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 76 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 76 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2029 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 76 |
| Amilcar Chirinos R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.26 | 25.6% | 12.3% | 1.4% | .349 | 4.01 | 19.3% | 6.3% | 147 | +0.75 | 2.86 | 212 | 75 |
| Grant Holman R 2029 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 75 |
| Gerelmi Maldonado R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.0% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .337 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 2.2% | 124 | +0.43 | 3.83 | 215 | 75 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 75 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 75 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2029 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 74 |