Robinson Smith — OGILVIE

Robinson Smith P FCL Pirates

Age 18 RHP 6'4" / 163 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%21.9%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	9	9	23	104	28	12	4	100%	2.6	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	5.8%	8.87	6.56	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	9	9	23	104	28	12	4	100%	2.6	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	5.8%	8.87	6.56	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	9	9	23	104	28	12	4	100%	2.6	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	3.8%	8.87	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	11	6	30	131	27	14	2	55%	2.8	14.0%	13.4%	0.7%	2.1%	4.45	4.78	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	11	6	30	131	27	14	2	55%	2.8	14.0%	13.4%	0.7%	2.1%	4.45	4.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	PIT	11	6	30	131	27	14	2	55%	2.8	20.6%	10.7%	9.9%	1.5%	4.45	3.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	31	132	30	15	4	100%	5.2	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	PIT	3	3	15	63	14	7	2	100%	5.0	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	15	65	15	7	2	100%	3.8	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	196	91	26	100%	4.3	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.0%	4.77	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		20	15	54	235	37	32	9	75%	2.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	3.8%	6.37	5.57	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	56	200	876	139	121	33	75%	2.7	15.9%	13.8%	2.1%	3.8%	6.37	5.57	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Robinson Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.94	21.9%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.70	22.4%	10.9%	31	-0.24	—	—	—
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	18	SP-	4.23	24.0%	14.2%	2.5%	.337	4.58	19.9%	2.2%	124	+0.35	3.83	225	82
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	80
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	79
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Moisés Chace R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP-	3.77	20.5%	13.0%	1.4%	.387	4.55	24.2%	6.9%	208	+0.78	3.77	247	79
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	78
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	77
Dahian Santos R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP-	4.91	24.2%	10.1%	4.7%	.316	4.72	25.1%	10.2%	161	-0.19	4.57	197	77
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	77
Anderson Cardenas R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	17	SP	4.22	17.3%	12.6%	1.8%	.319	4.04	21.2%	8.3%	92	-0.18	3.52	129	77
Edgar Leon R 2023 · 4.36 FIP	18	SP	4.36	18.2%	15.4%	1.5%	.268	4.93	17.6%	-3.0%	83	+0.57	4.13	144	77
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	77
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	76
Heisell Baro R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	17	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.196	5.91	15.8%	-1.4%	61	+1.54	4.25	105	76
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	76
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	76
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	75
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	75
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	75
Luis Araujo R 2015 · 3.80 FIP	18	SP-	3.80	16.1%	11.0%	1.2%	.342	3.37	15.7%	7.5%	62	-0.43	2.85	135	74