Diego Arroyo — OGILVIE

Diego Arroyo P DSL Colorado

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 173 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%18.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	5.1%	5.86	5.86	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	17.8%	11.4%	6.5%	5.1%	5.86	5.86	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	82%	3.9	26.2%	9.1%	17.1%	4.3%	5.86	4.43	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	18.3%	6.6%	11.8%	4.6%	3.13	4.91	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	18.3%	6.6%	11.8%	4.6%	3.13	4.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	10	6	37	152	41	8	5	60%	3.7	27.0%	5.3%	21.7%	3.3%	3.13	3.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	7	7	41	171	33	19	5	100%	5.8	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.92	-0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	4	4	20	84	16	9	3	100%	5.0	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	84	16	9	3	100%	5.0	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.54	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	160	90	30	100%	5.5	19.2%	11.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.98	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		21	15	80	339	61	31	17	71%	3.8	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	4.9%	4.59	5.44	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	37	200	844	152	78	41	71%	3.8	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	4.9%	4.59	5.44	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Diego Arroyo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	18.3%	11.9%	3.1%	—	4.92	19.2%	8.2%	41	-0.23	—	—	—
Brayan Mendoza L 2022 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP-	5.29	17.9%	15.0%	3.3%	.273	3.89	17.1%	6.3%	221	-1.40	3.59	398	83
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	82
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	609	81
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	81
Luis De Avila L 2018 · 4.50 FIP	17	SP	4.50	13.6%	11.1%	2.1%	.309	3.51	17.9%	10.2%	52	-0.99	3.51	434	80
Jesus Gomez L 2019 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	19.3%	12.4%	3.8%	.275	4.40	24.3%	9.8%	23	-0.72	4.22	121	79
Elier Morillo L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	17	SP-	4.12	18.1%	12.7%	1.7%	.418	4.31	28.7%	8.3%	89	+0.19	2.67	115	79
Carlos Sarmiento L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	18	SP-	4.76	14.8%	10.8%	2.8%	.295	6.86	15.4%	-9.9%	16	+2.10	4.76	100	79
Gabriel Agostini L 2022 · 4.84 FIP	18	SP-	4.84	14.6%	15.0%	1.9%	.311	5.24	12.7%	-2.7%	55	+0.40	1.97	122	79
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	78
Javier Chacon L 2022 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	22.5%	13.1%	5.0%	.295	4.63	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.98	4.56	202	78
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	78
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	77
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	77
Ethan Lindow L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.95	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.38	2.95	435	77
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	77
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	77
Francisco Villegas L 2016 · 4.66 FIP	18	SP-	4.66	13.5%	14.8%	1.5%	.288	5.41	17.6%	5.1%	90	+0.75	4.55	131	76
Cristian Machuca L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	12.6%	8.5%	2.5%	.342	3.30	10.3%	4.1%	61	-1.20	3.30	110	76
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	18.9%	11.4%	1.19	5.05
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21