Diego Arroyo — OGILVIE

Diego Arroyo P DSL Colorado

+0.1 WAR

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 173 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2033

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.8%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.3%

IP36

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2033

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Colorado	11	9	43	187	49	17	8	17.8%	11.4%	4.9%	5.86	5.70	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	36	—	36	154	35	15	5	22.8%	9.4%	3.1%	4.45	4.45	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	19	MLB	—	38	—	38	162	38	15	5	23.2%	9.1%	3.0%	4.37	4.33	+0.3
2028	20	MLB	—	40	—	40	170	40	15	5	23.6%	8.8%	3.0%	4.28	4.22	+0.3
2029	21	MLB	—	42	—	42	178	43	15	5	24.0%	8.5%	2.9%	4.19	4.13	+0.4
2030	22	MLB	—	44	—	44	187	47	15	5	24.9%	8.2%	2.8%	4.06	3.97	+0.5
2031	23	MLB	—	46	—	46	194	50	15	5	25.7%	7.8%	2.8%	3.93	3.85	+0.6
2032	24	MLB	—	47	—	47	199	52	15	6	26.2%	7.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.75	+0.6
2033	25	MLB	—	48	—	48	201	54	15	6	26.6%	7.5%	2.8%	3.75	3.70	+0.7
2034	26	MLB	—	48	—	48	201	54	15	6	26.8%	7.4%	2.8%	3.71	3.68	+0.7
2035	27	MLB	—	47	—	47	200	54	15	6	26.8%	7.5%	2.8%	3.70	3.69	+0.7
2036	28	MLB	—	47	—	47	197	53	15	6	26.7%	7.5%	2.8%	3.71	3.71	+0.7
2037	29	MLB	—	46	—	46	193	51	15	5	26.6%	7.6%	2.8%	3.74	3.76	+0.6
2038	30	MLB	—	44	—	44	187	49	14	5	26.4%	7.7%	2.9%	3.79	3.82	+0.6
2039	31	MLB	—	43	—	43	180	47	14	5	26.2%	7.8%	3.0%	3.85	3.89	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			11	9	43	187	33	21	9	17.8%	11.4%	4.9%	5.86	5.70	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—			51	42	200	870	153	98	42	17.8%	11.4%	4.9%	5.86	5.70	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Diego Arroyo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.8%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.22	23.7%	14.9%	121	-0.23	—	—	—
Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP	18	SU	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.37	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.52	2.29	227	91
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.85 FIP	18	SU	3.85	19.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.290	4.55	14.6%	-0.7%	53	+0.70	3.39	118	88
Denny Bentley L 2028 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	86
Pablo Aldonis L 2028 · 4.29 FIP	20	SU	4.29	20.7%	8.0%	3.5%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.65	1.89	108	86
Juan Rojas L 2026 · 3.66 FIP	18	SU	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.32	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.66	2.74	243	86
Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.18 FIP	19	SU	5.18	22.5%	13.1%	4.2%	.295	4.62	20.3%	3.5%	94	-0.56	4.55	135	86
Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP	18	SU	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.97	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.36	2.97	435	86
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP	19	SU	3.57	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.35	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.22	3.11	312	86
Lachlan Wells L 2026 · 4.18 FIP	18	SU	4.18	18.0%	7.4%	3.0%	.256	4.21	15.9%	9.4%	153	+0.03	3.26	335	85
Sam Hentges L 2027 · 4.34 FIP	19	SU	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.97	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.37	2.31	576	85
Brock Selvidge L 2027 · 3.66 FIP	19	SU	3.66	19.9%	11.7%	1.4%	.321	3.80	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.14	3.08	330	84
James Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP	18	SU	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	414	84
Jagger Haynes L 2028 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	19.7%	13.0%	2.2%	.303	5.33	18.5%	2.8%	214	+1.06	4.27	239	83
Angel Roman L 2026 · 3.78 FIP	18	SU	3.78	21.4%	13.5%	1.4%	.286	3.83	13.2%	4.3%	169	+0.05	2.74	196	82
Francis Texido L 2026 · 3.78 FIP	18	SW	3.78	20.4%	7.4%	2.7%	.260	5.53	15.1%	-5.8%	202	+1.75	3.78	252	82
Frankeli Arias L 2027 · 3.73 FIP	19	SU	3.73	16.9%	7.5%	2.0%	.281	5.02	15.8%	3.5%	214	+1.29	3.73	263	82
Blake Townsend L 2028 · 3.97 FIP	20	SU	3.97	26.7%	11.2%	3.1%	.286	3.98	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.01	3.33	200	81
Jay Groome L 2026 · 4.54 FIP	18	SU	4.54	21.6%	14.8%	2.5%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	420	81
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2028 · 4.21 FIP	20	SW	4.21	20.7%	12.3%	2.4%	.271	5.98	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.77	4.21	128	81
Wilkin Paredes L 2027 · 4.13 FIP	19	SU	4.13	16.2%	9.1%	2.3%	.353	5.01	11.5%	3.4%	198	+0.88	4.13	244	81

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$14M	+$9M