Diego Arroyo
P
DSL Colorado
Age 18
LHP
5'11" / 173 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114123vR 133
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
K%18.3%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 43 | 187 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 82% | 3.9 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.86 | 5.51 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 9 | 43 | 187 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 82% | 3.9 | 26.2% | 9.1% | 17.1% | 4.3% | 5.86 | 4.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 7 | 4 | 30 | 121 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 57% | 4.2 | 15.7% | 5.2% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 3.03 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | — | 3 | 3 | 26 | 108 | 20 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 8.5 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.3% | 11.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.04 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | — | — | — | 55 | 229 | 48 | 17 | 8 | — | — | 20.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.5 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 6.6 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.46 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 91 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.46 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 18 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 52 | 28 | 15 | 72% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.71 | 5.55 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 848 | 144 | 76 | 42 | 72% | 4.0 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 4.71 | 5.55 | -0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Diego Arroyo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.84 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 27 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Sam Hentges L 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.91 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.43 | 2.22 | 594 | 84 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.23 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .353 | 4.88 | 11.8% | 3.1% | 248 | +0.65 | 4.23 | 294 | 83 |
| Deyer Zapata L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.37 | 18.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .309 | 5.40 | 17.5% | 4.0% | 50 | +1.03 | 3.61 | 130 | 81 |
| Keyner Benitez L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 18 | SP | 5.14 | 18.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .255 | 4.23 | 17.4% | 2.3% | 73 | -0.91 | 4.05 | 177 | 81 |
| Carlos Sarmiento L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.95 | 14.8% | 10.8% | 3.2% | .295 | 6.88 | 15.4% | -9.9% | 16 | +1.93 | 4.85 | 100 | 80 |
| Luis De Avila L 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 17 | SP | 4.50 | 13.6% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 3.36 | 17.9% | 10.2% | 52 | -1.14 | 3.36 | 434 | 80 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.25 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .324 | 2.67 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.58 | 1.89 | 135 | 80 |
| Jesus Gomez L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SP | 5.12 | 19.3% | 12.4% | 3.8% | .275 | 4.31 | 24.3% | 9.8% | 23 | -0.81 | 4.22 | 121 | 80 |
| Javier Chacon L 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.42 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.7% | .295 | 4.69 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.73 | 4.63 | 181 | 79 |
| Brayan Mendoza L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.9% | 15.0% | 3.2% | .273 | 3.88 | 17.1% | 6.3% | 221 | -1.38 | 3.58 | 359 | 78 |
| Robinson Ortiz L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SP- | 3.85 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .312 | 5.34 | 15.2% | 0.6% | 98 | +1.49 | 2.29 | 261 | 78 |
| Eduar Gonzalez L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.00 | 16.6% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .333 | 4.54 | 12.9% | 1.7% | 40 | +0.54 | 4.00 | 124 | 78 |
| Jackson Humphries L 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.37 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 6.27 | 20.7% | 0.6% | 223 | +1.90 | 4.37 | 280 | 77 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 77 |
| Lachlan Wells L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.18 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .256 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 153 | +0.07 | 3.21 | 335 | 77 |
| Cristian Machuca L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 12.6% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.30 | 10.3% | 4.1% | 61 | -1.20 | 3.30 | 110 | 77 |
| Colin Schmid L 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.81 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 5.7% | 125 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 191 | 77 |
| Jordan Woods L 2028 · 4.61 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.61 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .329 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 7.4% | 112 | -0.48 | 3.74 | 143 | 77 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.19 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.14 | 3.19 | 435 | 76 |
| Juan Sanchez L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.49 | 14.2% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .333 | 3.31 | 24.3% | 13.2% | 103 | -1.18 | 3.07 | 345 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 1.18 | 4.96 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |