Luis Mata — OGILVIE

Luis Mata P ACL Cubs

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 167 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%21.3%

BB%18.9%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	15.5%	24.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.06	4.85	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	15.5%	24.1%	-8.7%	0.0%	6.06	4.85	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	8	7	16	88	20	17	0	88%	2.0	22.7%	19.3%	3.4%	0.0%	6.06	3.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	3	40	220	40	45	5	14%	1.8	13.4%	26.2%	-12.7%	2.4%	6.02	6.62	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	22	3	40	220	40	45	5	14%	1.8	13.4%	26.2%	-12.7%	2.4%	6.02	6.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CHC	18	1	30	172	34	36	3	6%	1.7	19.8%	20.9%	-1.2%	1.7%	6.23	5.04	—
2026	20	A RAW	CHC	4	2	10	48	6	9	2	50%	2.5	12.5%	18.8%	-6.2%	4.2%	5.40	6.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	40	0	42	175	38	28	5	0%	1.0	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.24	-0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	CHC	19	0	20	84	19	14	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.36	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	86	19	14	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.36	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	137	20	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.0%	5.9%	2.9%	5.36	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		30	10	57	308	43	79	5	33%	1.9	14.0%	25.6%	-11.6%	1.7%	6.04	6.11	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	35	200	1087	152	278	19	33%	1.9	14.0%	25.6%	-11.6%	1.7%	6.04	6.11	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Mata (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	21.3%	18.9%	2.9%	—	5.24	21.9%	5.9%	42	-0.44	—	—	—
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	87
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	86
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	84
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	84
Keegan Collett R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	21	SW	5.05	21.9%	24.6%	1.2%	.321	4.68	29.1%	9.0%	84	-0.37	3.93	184	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	80
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Juan Martinez R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	20	SW	5.12	17.4%	20.8%	1.6%	.314	5.54	15.4%	-0.3%	31	+0.42	4.03	122	79
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	79
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	78
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	78
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	78
Darlin Pinales R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	17.0%	27.6%	2.8%	.350	4.44	21.7%	1.1%	117	-2.24	3.61	214	77
Yehizon Sanchez R 2021 · 5.88 FIP	20	SW	5.88	18.1%	16.7%	4.0%	.417	6.18	13.4%	1.7%	217	+0.30	3.40	359	76
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	76
Doimil Perez R 2023 · 5.95 FIP	19	SU	5.95	17.8%	14.7%	4.5%	.322	5.36	16.6%	-2.0%	47	-0.59	3.32	139	76
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	76
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	76
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.8%	16.6%	1.12	5.42
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84