Luis Mata
P
ACL Cubs
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 167 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%23.0%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP10
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 8 | 7 | 16 | 88 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 88% | 2.0 | 15.5% | 24.1% | -8.7% | 0.0% | 6.06 | 4.85 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 8 | 7 | 16 | 88 | 20 | 17 | 0 | 88% | 2.0 | 22.7% | 19.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 6.06 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Cubs | 16 | 0 | 25 | 152 | 29 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.0% | 27.1% | -14.2% | 1.8% | 6.75 | 6.45 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.42 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 35 | 193 | 38 | 37 | 3 | — | — | 19.9% | 19.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 6.10 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 7 | 42 | 240 | 33 | 62 | 3 | 29% | 1.7 | 13.9% | 26.0% | -12.2% | 1.2% | 6.48 | 5.87 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 115 | 34 | 200 | 1152 | 160 | 300 | 13 | 29% | 1.7 | 13.9% | 26.0% | -12.2% | 1.2% | 6.48 | 5.87 | -1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Mata (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 23.0% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.29 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 20 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 84 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 81 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.25 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 187 | 81 |
| David Davalillo R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.24 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .292 | 3.32 | 21.0% | 12.0% | 262 | +0.08 | 2.94 | 279 | 81 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.43 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .304 | 5.57 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.14 | 4.43 | 134 | 81 |
| Michael Gomez R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 79 |
| Jake Elliott R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 79 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 79 |
| Luis Romero R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 79 |
| Ismael Cabrera R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.56 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .250 | 5.44 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 117 | +1.88 | 3.56 | 133 | 79 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 79 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 79 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 78 |
| Saul Teran R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.23 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.3% | .333 | 3.83 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 94 | -1.40 | 2.28 | 158 | 78 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 78 |
| Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.62 | 23.5% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .286 | 5.15 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 157 | +1.53 | 3.62 | 181 | 78 |
| Adrián Martinez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.30 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 4.09 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 92 | -0.21 | 2.02 | 526 | 78 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.41 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +0.82 | 4.59 | 120 | 78 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 78 |
| Joangel Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .312 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 3.4% | 93 | +0.49 | 3.96 | 127 | 78 |