Aleiman Cruz

P FCL Tigers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 176 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	0.00	0.10	50.0%	0.0%	—	K 50.0% · BB 0.0% · FIP -1.12
2026	20	MIX2 levels	14	5	45	3.00	3.54	26.2%	9.7%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	21	MLBDET	22	0	23	4.76	4.76	21.2%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBDET	20	0	21	4.59	4.50	22.3%	10.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKobe Robinson (age 21) · Juan Mendez (age 22) · Inohan Paniagua (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%21.2%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 2	2	1	2	6	3	0	0	50%	1.0	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	45	195	51	19	5	36%	3.2	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.5%	3.00	4.48	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	5	45	195	51	19	5	36%	3.2	17.9%	12.0%	5.9%	2.5%	3.00	4.48	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	5	45	195	51	19	5	36%	3.2	26.2%	9.7%	16.4%	2.6%	3.00	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	DET	22	0	23	97	21	11	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.4%	9.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	40	0	42	179	40	18	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	20	0	21	89	20	9	3	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	88	20	9	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.12	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	86	29	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		16	6	47	201	38	23	5	38%	2.9	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.4%	2.87	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	26	200	855	161	99	21	38%	2.9	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.4%	2.87	4.32	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aleiman Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	21.2%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.50	22.3%	12.1%	42	-0.26	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	88
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Inohan Paniagua R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	21	SW	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.1%	.298	4.28	18.8%	8.2%	297	+0.60	3.68	473	82
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	82
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	81
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	81
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	386	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	80
Jose Vasquez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	19	SW	4.12	21.9%	13.4%	2.1%	.359	6.49	15.6%	-10.2%	66	+2.37	4.12	123	80
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	80
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	79
Janser Lara R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	21	SW	4.11	19.3%	11.5%	2.1%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.84	220	79
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	79
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	79
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	79
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	79
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	21.9%	10.7%	1.14	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*